Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews (34). Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

NHL futures: Hart Trophy race tightens up following Auston Matthews's historic night

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated 2/22/24

Not too long ago, Colorado's Nathan MacKinnon was the odds-on favorite at -150 to win the Hart Trophy for the NHL's most valuable player. MacKinnon has already piled up 92 points, second-most in the league, and he's the engine behind one of the league's best teams and Stanley Cup hopefuls.

A recent quiet stretch has opened the door in this market for some alternative betting options, not the least of which is Auston Matthews, who become the quickest American-born skater to hit 50 goals in a season last night, doing so in just 54 games.

Current Hart Trophy odds

Nathan MacKinnon: +185
Nikita Kucherov: +270
Auston Matthews: +300
Connor McDavid: +330

The top four of the table are four of the top five point leaders in the NHL this season, and there's a big drop off here to the next names on this list, that being David Pastrnak at +2500 and Artemi Panarin, Quinn Hughes and Elias Pettersson at +4000.

If ever to grab an investment in Matthews, the timing is now. Matthews has 28 games to go, and at this pace, he seems likely to become the first player to hit 75+ goals in a season since 1993. That is no small feat, and if he does hit that threshold, it seems hard to imagine he is not awarded his second Hart Trophy.

The appeal of MacKinnon here is that he is sure to start piling up the points again soon, and if voters are hoping to spread the net to a fresh face, he is the only one from the four names above that has yet to win the award.

Edmonton and Connor McDavid are the current favorites to win the Stanley Cup at +750, while Colorado isn't far behind at +850. Tampa Bay is just fighting to secure a Wild Card spot, so while Nikita Kucherov is the league's current point leader, we prefer passing on him here.

The question to ask: can Matthews maintain this blistering pace? The Toronto star has an absurd nine goals in his past four games and 11 goals since the All-Star break, when he won All-Star MVP. The man simply knows how to bury the puck in the net, and defenses can try and key in on him all they want, but all that does is open up lanes for his team-mates, further cementing just how valuable Matthews is to this team.

Health assuming, Matthews should be able to hit 70+ goals or more, and that's going to make it difficult for voters to pass up on him in the Hart Trophy market.

Our bet: Matthews to win the Hart Trophy at +300

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