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NHL GMs Watching for a Rumored Lower McDavid Number

Originally posted on NHL Trade Talk | Last updated Sep 22, 2025 11:45 AM ET

An NHL general manager asked NHL insider Elliotte Friedman if he genuinely believed his own prediction that the Connor McDavid extension would come in at a lower annual average salary than most analysts are expecting. Friedman said he couldn’t know for certain, but he was confident. That same GM said he hoped Friedman was right, because a lower McDavid deal could change the NHL landscape in favor of NHL franchises.

As big-name contract negotiations stretch into training camp, there’s a growing sense around the NHL that general managers are trying to “hold the line” on escalating salaries. Meanwhile, Connor McDavid is doing what’s best for Connor McDavid, and taking his time before committing to a new deal — one that many expect will come in at a surprisingly low number.

The failed extension talks between the Minnesota Wild and Kirill Kaprizov highlight the fact that some teams are struggling to get their players to sign what they see as “fair” deals. Reports surfaced that Minnesota offered an eye-popping eight years at $16 million per season, only for the winger to turn it down. While no other team is throwing out a similar figure, that number has shifted the landscape.

McDavid could set it back.

Agents are pushing the bar higher, while managers are asking where the ceiling really is. Many are waiting on McDavid, the best player in the NHL, to give everyone the official high-end.

McDavid Is the High Mark on NHL Salaries… Kind Of

Widely expected to command a historic deal, the Edmonton Oilers captain could set the standard for years to come. Yet some believe McDavid may surprise everyone by taking less than expected in order to keep Edmonton’s roster competitive alongside Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard, and Darnell Nurse. If that happens, GMs hope it could temper demands elsewhere.

The ripple effect could be massive, given the crop of UFAs potentially hitting the market next summer. Should McDavid sign for less than $16 million annually, teams negotiating with players like Kaprizov, Jack Eichel, or Kyle Connor might be comfortable standing their ground and saying, anything they agree to has to be less than $16 million and in line with McDavid’s deal.

Still, there’s doubt about how much one deal can influence another—especially when agents are armed with the argument that each situation is unique. Kaprizov, for example, is not expected to suddenly sign a deal in Minnesota worth $16 million or less if McDavid’s deal is for $15.5 million per season.

For now, the market remains in flux. Teams want to protect flexibility under a rising cap, players want to maximize value, and McDavid’s eventual decision may be the domino that defines where the line is drawn.

This article first appeared on NHL Trade Talk and was syndicated with permission.

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