NHL Metropolitan Division predictions 2025-26: Which teams will beat, match or miss point projections?

The NHL preseason is underway, and the regular season is quickly approaching, with opening night set for Oct. 7.

We evaluated every team in each division, comparing their outlook to current FanDuel team points betting odds. Based on our analysis, we assessed whether those expectations seem too high, too low or about right.

• Too high: The projection is at least 5.5 points higher than our own.

• About right: The projection falls within five points (plus or minus) of our own.

• Too low: The projection is at least 5.5 points lower than our own.

Below is Yardbarker's predicted order of finish for the Metropolitan Division.

1. Carolina Hurricanes

FanDuel projection: 106.5 points | 2024-25 total: 99 points | YB projection: About right

The Hurricanes season point total has declined each season since 2021-22, when they had 116 points. Carolina has jettisoned a veteran defensive corps (34-year-old Dmitry Orlov and 40-year-old Brent Burns), replacing them with 25-year-old K'Andre Miller and 23-year-old Alexander Nikishin. The payoff should be a bounce-back season for one of the more consistent regular-season franchises, though exceeding 110 points in a competitive Metropolitan Division seems unlikely. 

2. New York Rangers

FanDuel projection: 95.5 points | 2024-25 total: 85 points | YB projection: Too low

The Rangers signed Vladislav Gavrikov, arguably the best defensive defenseman of the 2024-25 season, to pair with Adam Fox. They also hired two-time Stanley Cup winner Mike Sullivan, the head coach GM Chris Drury has long coveted. Offseason moves position the Rangers to be improved at five-on-five, where Natural Stat Trick had them 29th last season in high-danger chances allowed per 60 minutes. 

Improvements at five-on-five, a potential power-play revival under the tutelage of the assistant coach who sparked it in the first place (David Quinn) and goalie Igor Shesterkin — who finished seventh by MoneyPuck's goals saved above expected — make the Rangers likely bounce-back candidates. 

3. New Jersey Devils

FanDuel projection: 100.5 points | 2024-25 total: 91 points | YB projection: About right

This will be one of the more difficult betting lines, because the Devils, on pure talent, probably are better than the line. The challenge in New Jersey is always going to be about the health of their superstar forward, Jack Hughes, who has missed an average of 19.25 games per season the past four years. The depth is better than last season with the additions of winger Connor Brown and the re-signing of trade-deadline piece Cody Glass, also a forward, but the team still lacks a real plan for backfilling Hughes' production. They'll be a better overall defensive team under head coach Sheldon Keefe, but relying on goalies with as much mileage as Jacob Markstrom and Jake Allen is a concern.

4. Washington Capitals

FanDuel projection: 94.5 points | 2024-25 total: 111 points | YB projection: About right 

Washington was good to average in most categories last season. The team rode a great penalty kill (fifth in the NHL in PK%) and a superb season from goalie Logan Thompson (third in MoneyPuck's goals saved above expected stat) to the best record in the Eastern Conference. That doesn't seem repeatable for a team that will likely have two old defenseman (34-year-old Trevor van Riemsdyk and 35-year-old John Carlson) in their top four and will rely on a 40-year-old Alex Ovechkin for gaudy goal numbers. But the Capitals are deep at every position and have no glaring weaknesses. Plus, they have prospect depth to aid them if injuries become an issue. 

5. Columbus Blue Jackets

FanDuel projection: 84.5 points | 2024-25 total: 89 points | YB projection: Too low

Are the individual components going to finally come together for this young team? The Jackets took a step forward last season, finishing with 89 points despite losing top center Sean Monahan (wrist) for 28 games. The only major concern about them taking another step forward is the goaltending, where a three-headed monster of Elvis Merzlikins, Jet Greaves and Ivan Fedotov probably offers more bark than bite. The Blue Jackets are going to be in the conversation for a playoff spot, especially because of head coach Dean Evason's track record of getting teams to overachieve. 

6. New York Islanders

FanDuel projection: 84.5 points | 2024-25 total: 82 points | YB projection: Too high

The challenge with the Islanders is figuring out their direction. They've not explicitly committed to a major teardown, but winning the lottery and trading defenseman Noah Dobson to Montreal for a package of futures indicates they aren't fully committed to winning now. The Islanders' veteran roster could overachieve, but that seems far too unlikely. 

7. Philadelphia Flyers

FanDuel projection: 81.5 points | 2024-25 total: 76 points | YB projection: Too high

The Flyers might be the new Red Wings — they have the bones of a solid rebuild and made a good coaching hire (Rick Tocchet), but the roster might just have too many issues to be competitive. The vibes should change by going from the hard-grinding John Tortorella to Tocchet, who's also a grinder but a much better communicator than Torts. Another issue for the Flyers? Goaltending. Philly may have the worst netminding situation in the league.  

8. Pittsburgh Penguins

FanDuel projection: 74.5 points | 2024-25 total: 80 points | YB projection: About right

The Penguins should be in the running to finish with the worst record in the league despite 38-year-old star Sidney Crosby (91 points last season), who still clearly can play. Forwards Rickard Rakell and Bryan Rust, both role players, seem like locks to be traded, which should help cap any upside for a team with goaltending problems.