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NHL power rankings: The Dallas Stars are gelling at the right time

Originally posted on Daily Faceoff | By Scott Maxwell | Last updated 4/8/24

While the Western Conference playoff race is all but decided, the East remains a close fight between five teams for the final two spots (and maybe two more teams if you want to use your imagination). The problem is that all of these teams seem to be trying their hardest to not make the playoffs with their recent play, to the point that we might see the third (and maybe even fourth) team in the salary cap era to make the playoffs with fewer than 90 points.

Mike and I continue to navigate through the results so far with another week of our co-op power rankings. I have my same old system in which I aggregate six stats (points %, 5-on-5 goal differential, 5-on-5 xGF/60, 5-on-5 xGA/60, power play xGF/60, and shorthanded xGA/60, all coming courtesy of Natural Stat Trick) to come up with a list that eliminates my own biases, along with a rule that no team can be above a team that’s more than five points ahead of them in the standings, regardless of where the aggregate places them. Also, with teams now beginning to clinch playoff spots, it’s time to bring back my other rule: teams that have not clinched a playoff spot cannot be ranked ahead of teams that have.

1. Dallas Stars

Record: 49-20-9, +63
Last Week: 2nd (+1)
Mike’s Rank: 1st
Scott’s Rank: 2nd

Scott: The Stars have been one of the few teams that Mike and I have consistently rated highly this season, so it’s incredible that it’s taken them this long to take first spot (at least they’re peaking at the right time). While I obviously didn’t fully agree with Mike, I don’t disagree with this choice either. Their offense was already lethal before they added Logan Stankoven to the equation, Chris Tanev has really allowed the rest of their blueline to be in more appropriate roles for their skill sets, and Jake Oettinger may finally be playing like Jake Oettinger again. With nine wins in their last 10 games, they’re looking better than ever, even if that one loss came to the Blackhawks.

Mike: Wyatt Johnston is a 30-goal scorer! What an incredible pick that turned out to be for a Stars team that just can’t seem to miss in the draft these days. They’re overdue for a second Stanley Cup, aren’t they?

2. Carolina Hurricanes

Record: 49-22-7, +58
Last Week: 1st (-1)
Mike’s Rank: 2nd
Scott’s Rank: 1st

Mike: The Hurricanes fascinate me. I can’t wait to see what they do in the offseason with Jake Guentzel, who is proving to be a marvelous addition by a management team that had previously been averse to making big deadline swings. But the ‘Canes also have an interesting (albeit somewhat homogeneous) prospect pool that they solidified this past week with the signings of Scott Morrow, Gleb Trikozov, and most recently Bradly Nadeau. The Hurricanes love their high-upside, low-floor little guys, that’s for sure. But one thing’s for certain: Carolina ownership needs to find a full-fledged AHL affiliate for those three guys (and many others) to develop as pros. This year’s patchwork “solution” just won’t fly going forward.

3. Boston Bruins

Record: 46-17-15, +48
Last Week: 6th (+3)
Mike’s Rank: 3rd
Scott’s Rank: 3rd

Scott: How have the Bruins managed to stay this good all season? It’s just unfair. They struck out on getting a center at the trade deadline, and they’re still consistently chugging away with the best teams in the league, and with five wins in their last six, it’s not even because they’re a beneficiary of the overtime loss point. With Florida’s recent struggles, it seems like they have the Atlantic Division locked down, with the Eastern Conference and Presidents Trophy still in their grasp in the final two weeks of the season.

4. New York Rangers

Record: 53-21-4, +53
Last Week: 5th (+1)
Mike’s Rank: 4th
Scott’s Rank: 4th

Mike: Scott and I were surprised and rather amused to discover last week that a small segment of our readers believes that we both have it out for the Rangers. Quite frankly, I don’t think it could be any further from the truth. I visited New York City back in February and had a wonderful time, heading to Madison Square Garden on multiple occasions during my stay. I can’t speak for Scott (I’m sure he’ll chime in), but I find the Rangers a likeable and promising team. They’ve certainly been doing well for much of this season. I’m not certain they’re quite as good as their record suggests but you can’t argue with their results at all. Scott, your thoughts?

Scott: Unfortunately, the allegations are true: I hate the Rangers. Even though I have them ranked two spots higher than last week, I’ve actually started altering the results of my statistical aggregated rankings specifically to make them look bad. You got me, Rangers fans, it totally is just a personal vendetta against your team, and not based on the fact that they’re the worst of the top teams at driving play.

5. Florida Panthers

Record: 48-24-6, +58
Last Week: 3rd (-2)
Mike’s Rank: 5th
Scott’s Rank: 6th

Scott: While the Panthers aren’t in the same funk as they were a couple weeks ago when they had lost six of seven games, they’ve still been an inconsistent 2-3-0 in their last five games. Their trip through the Northeast saw them trail 5-1 to the Maple Leafs before a late comeback almost made it a game, lose 5-3 the following night to the lowly Canadiens, bounce back with a 6-0 rout of the Sens and then lose 3-2 in overtime to the Bruins. That Bruins loss probably closes the door on a division title, and suddenly this Panthers team is looking like the inverse of last year’s squad, plagued with inconsistencies as they head into the playoffs.

6. Edmonton Oilers

Record: 47-24-5, +56
Last Week: 8th (+2)
Mike’s Rank: 6th
Scott’s Rank: 5th

Mike: The Oilers are creeping up on the next team on our list in the Pacific Division standings, but both Scott and I felt compelled to rank them above the Canucks anyway. Truthfully, I get it. Connor McDavid is on the verge of scoring his 100th assist of the season, the pairing of Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard has been terrific, and they just beat their provincial rivals on Saturday night. As Leon Draisaitl said himself, it’s “Cup or Bust” for the Oilers this year — and I have to wonder if 2025 UFA Leon’s summer 2024 extension talks will be affected if the Oilers come up “Bust” once again.

7. Vancouver Canucks

Record: 47-22-8, +53
Last Week: 7th (0)
Mike’s Rank: 8th
Scott’s Rank: 7th

Scott: The Canucks have also been a bit inconsistent as of late, with four losses in their last six games. To make matters worse, the two wins in that span have been gimmes to the Ducks and Coyotes, while all four losses are to other playoff teams in the Kings (twice), Stars and Golden Knights. Oh, and Edmonton is knocking on the door for the division title. That doesn’t exactly inspire confidence as the team is looking to get set for the playoffs.

Mike: I wonder whether Andrei Kuzmenko would’ve still been a healthy scratch had he stayed in Vancouver down the stretch. He’s up to 17 points in 23 games with the Flames since the trade.

8. Toronto Maple Leafs

Record: 44-23-9, +43
Last Week: 9th (+1)
Mike’s Rank: 7th
Scott’s Rank: 8th

Mike: Which would be more impressive: McDavid reaching 100 assists, or Matthews scoring his 70th goal? One is certainly more likely to happen than the other, but Matthews getting to that particular milestone absolutely isn’t out of the question. Historically, scoring 70 goals has been slightly more common than 100 assists … but they’re both extremely exclusive clubs. Matthews needs just two more goals to surpass Alex Ovechkin for the most in a single season in the salary cap era. Wouldn’t that be something?

9. Colorado Avalanche

Record: 48-24-6, +51
Last Week: 4th (-5)
Mike’s Rank: 9th
Scott’s Rank: 9th

Scott: I seem to be talking about a lot of the cold teams this week, and the Avs have been no different. After a nine-game winning streak, the Avs have lost five of their last seven games, and while some of those losses have at least been to good teams like the Oilers and Stars, the rest have been to weaker teams like the Canadiens and Blue Jackets (and the Rangers, who I despise). That has more or less allowed the Stars to be in the driver seat for the top spot in the Central Division, and put the Avs in a much tougher position of having to deal with the Jets in the first round.

10. Tampa Bay Lightning

Record: 43-27-7, +23
Last Week: 13th (+3)
Mike’s Rank: 10th
Scott’s Rank: 11th

Mike: Points aren’t quite what they used to be, hey? That’s not intended as a shot at Nikita Kucherov (or Connor McDavid, for that matter). It’s not out of the question that the Lightning star reaches 100 assists and 150 points this season, which would make him the first to reach those particular marks since, well, McDavid himself (assuming 97 does pick up at least one more helper this year). Kuch is up to 93 assists and 136 points in 76 games this year. Remember when it was unthinkable for anyone to get 120 over a full season? It just goes to show how much scoring has increased — and how much more skilled the league has become.

Scott: It’d be pretty funny if, after all the talk about how 100 assists is more impressive than 70 goals because fewer players have done it, Kucherov precedes to get 100 assists as well and more or less ruin that argument for McDavid.

11. Winnipeg Jets

Record: 47-24-6, +46
Last Week: 12th (+1)
Mike’s Rank: 12th
Scott’s Rank: 10th

Scott: The Jets may have life again. After a six-game losing streak saw them almost lose their third-place spot in the Central Division, they’ve won three in a row over the Kings, Flames and Wild last week to give them some more breathing room for that spot. That said, looking at how they’ve deployed Nikolaj Ehlers recently, I really hope that Rick Bowness is bluffing with the Dane’s usage and will put him in a more prominent role come playoff time, because it might be a decision that costs them in the playoffs against a strong team like the Avs or Stars.

12. Los Angeles Kings

Record: 41-25-11, +39
Last Week: 14th (+2)
Mike’s Rank: 13th
Scott’s Rank: 12th

Mike: Well, would you look at that: L.A. has won three games in a row and is now back to being one point up of the Golden Knights for third place in the Pacific Division. But let’s be real. Do we really want to see the Kings and Oilers play each other in the first round again? I’ll answer that one for you: no, we do not. Edmonton catching Vancouver might solve that problem for us … but what if the Kings fall back into Wildcard territory? Blech! In any case, I think those two teams have had enough of each other and it’d be interesting to see how the Kings’ 1-3-1 system would match up against the Canucks’ high-flying attack.

13. Vegas Golden Knights

Record: 42-26-8, +22
Last Week: 11th (-2)
Mike’s Rank: 11th
Scott’s Rank: 14th

Scott: I would like to state for the record that I’d probably have the Golden Knights at least as high as Mike does if not for the fact that their early-season underlying numbers are weighing them down. Other than that, they have certainly flipped the switch again, as they were rocking a seven-game point streak before Friday’s 7-4 loss to the Coyotes. With Tomas Hertl set to make his Golden Knights debut later today, this team might have it all figured out by the time the playoffs start.

Mike: That loss to Arizona cost me a $90 parlay. It was absolutely hilarious. You mean to tell me you allowed six unanswered goals in the third period … to the Coyotes? Incredible.

14. Nashville Predators

Record: 45-29-4, +18
Last Week: 10th (-4)
Mike’s Rank: 14th
Scott’s Rank: 13th

Mike: My pre-season prediction that the Predators would have the league’s most anemic offense has aged like milk. I have it on good authority that even Barry Trotz himself learned about that particular bad take (from one of my Daily Faceoff co-workers, no less). How embarrassing! I would absolutely love to see Filip Forsberg earn some fourth or fifth-place Hart Trophy votes this year. He’s been a full-fledged dynamo for this Predators team, collecting 43 goals, 46 assists, and 89 points (all career highs) in 78 games this season. I don’t think there’d be playoff hockey in Nashville this year without Forsberg in those yellow sweaters.

Scott: I don’t even think Forsberg is the one on this team that should be getting any lower Hart votes. Josi’s play recently has been really good, and he’s adjusted well to the Preds new system under Andrew Brunette this season.

15. Pittsburgh Penguins

Record: 36-30-11, +5
Last Week: 21st (+6)
Mike’s Rank: 15th
Scott’s Rank: 15th

Scott: My god, they might actually do it. This Penguins team was dead in the water, and yet here they are, sitting one point back of the Red Wings for the final Wildcard spot and two points back of the Islanders for the division spot after winning four in a row and getting points in their last eight. They have a few games against tough teams in the Leafs, Bruins and Preds in their remaining five, but they also have two games against the Wings and Isles, so their fate is very much in their hands. I’m kind of hoping that they get the division spot and have to face Jake Guentzel and the Canes in the first round.

16. Minnesota Wild

Record: 37-13-9, -9
Last Week: 16th (0)
Mike’s Rank: 17th
Scott’s Rank: 16th

Mike: I still don’t really know what to say about this Wild team. I feel like we could’ve ranked them lower than this, though. Sixteenth? Really? Why? They’ve won four of their last 10, they’re nine points out of a playoff spot, and their defense has been ravaged by injuries all season long. What could possibly be the reason for having them this high …

… oh. I forgot. We’re about to talk about the Eastern Conference playoff bubble teams. Yep, this ranking is juuust fine for Minnesota.

17. New York Islanders

Record: 35-27-15, -23
Last Week: 18th (+1)
Mike’s Rank: 16th
Scott’s Rank: 18th

Scott:

18. Washington Capitals

Record: 36-30-11, -41
Last Week: 17th (-1)
Mike’s Rank: 19th
Scott’s Rank: 19th

Mike: Alex Ovechkin is scorching hot. Unfortunately, the team around him seems to be finally remembering that they’re the 2023-24 Washington Capitals. They wasted a pair of Ovi goals in their 4-2 loss to the Hurricanes on Friday and followed that up by blowing two leads and falling in overtime to the Senators on Sunday. That makes it six losses in a row for a Capitals team that only remains in the mix for a playoff spot because teams like Philadelphia and Detroit are just as unserious as they are. None of these teams should be anywhere near the playoff picture. And yet …

19. Philadelphia Flyers

Record: 36-31-11, -23
Last Week: 15th (-4)
Mike’s Rank: 21st
Scott’s Rank: 17th

Scott: I thought I was being low on the Flyers, but Mike clearly one-upped me in that department. In terms of the vibes with this team right now, I don’t blame being low on the team. They’ve lost seven in a row and it feels like every other day, we’re getting some crazy quote from John Tortorella about how bad the team has played. I get that being tough on his guys is Torts’ thing, and he did give some sober second thoughts on a couple of them, but for a young team, it’s got to feel like your coach is kicking you when you’re down. I highly doubt Torts is in hot water yet, but you have to wonder if maybe his seat has gotten a few degrees hotter.

Mike: I genuinely have no idea how the Flyers are going to approach this off-season. Are they going to buy? Sell? Stay the course? Trade up in the draft? Trade down? Sign Travis Konecny to an extension? Fire the coach? Literally anything could happen.

20. St. Louis Blues

Record: 41-32-5, -13
Last Week: 19th (-1)
Mike’s Rank: 18th
Scott’s Rank: 21st

Mike: The Blues are on a bit of a concerning path toward sustained mediocrity. (Trust me, I live in Calgary: I know it when I see it). With their win over the Ducks on Sunday, the Blues improved to 41-32-5 — good for fifth place in the Central Division and ninth in the Western Conference. In a lot of ways, that’s the worst of both worlds. The Blues aren’t good enough to make the playoffs, but they’re not going to be drafting particularly high, either. I like Dalibor Dvorsky and Theo Lindstein as much as the next guy, but the Blues need to add some true high-end young talent to supplement their existing players. Doug Armstrong has a big job to do.

21. Detroit Red Wings

Record: 38-31-8, +3
Last Week: 22nd (+1)
Mike’s Rank: 20th
Scott’s Rank: 20th

Scott: After the March that the Wings had, they have no business still being in the playoff hunt, and yet, they hold the final playoff spot as of this moment. And to really sum up how anti-climatic this race for these final spots in the East has been, they’ve snuck back into the playoff spot despite only being 5-4-2 in their last 11 games. Side note: I lowkey want to see the Red Wings end up playing the Rangers in the first round. Having the two worst play-driving teams in the postseason play each other in the first round seems like a recipe for chaos, and also, since I hate the Rangers, I think it’d be a funny upset candidate as well.

22. New Jersey Devils

Record: 37-36-5, -13
Last Week: 20th (-2)
Mike’s Rank: 22nd
Scott’s Rank: 22nd

Mike: This Devils season is about to go into the books as one of the greatest bag fumblings of the salary cap era. Not only did they fail to live up to the high expectations placed upon them at the start of the year; not only did they fail to substantially improve after a coaching change; not only did they hedge their bets at the goaltending position instead of pulling the trigger on a major upgrade; on top of all that, these Devils somehow ended up being the worst of the Eastern Conference playoff bubble teams. How is that even possible!? Not even the Sabres have looked this defeated down the stretch. Stick a fork in ‘em.

23. Seattle Kraken

Record: 32-31-13, -17
Last Week: 26th (+3)
Mike’s Rank: 23rd
Scott’s Rank: 23rd

Scott: The Kraken are in that ever-so-boring state of being too bad for the playoffs but too good for a tank job to make any feasible progress, so instead I’d just like to shift people’s attention towards Shane Wright, who has three goals and four points in three games since his recent call-up. Since Habs fans love to cherry pick points-per-game stats with Juraj Slafkovsky, I think this recent stretch from Wright means that he’s the better player.

Mike: I still think Seattle needs another young center — but that doesn’t mean Wright won’t become one heck of a player. I actually think he’d become underrated because he wasn’t able to make an impact as early on as Slafkovsky and Logan Cooley did. He’s still a great prospect.

24. Buffalo Sabres

Record: 37-36-5, 0
Last Week: 25th (+1)
Mike’s Rank: 24th
Scott’s Rank: 24th

Mike: I desperately want to see a full season in which Tage Thompson, Dylan Cozens, Jack Quinn, J-J Peterka, Jeff Skinner, Alex Tuch, Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power, Bowen Byram, and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen are all healthy, consistently in the lineup, and playing to their full potential for these Sabres. A team with this much talent should have no problem finishing above the current iterations of the Red Wings and Flyers. I’m curious to see whether Kevyn Adams makes any significant additions this summer — a right-handed defender would be nice — but the Sabres should also be able to plug some holes from within.

25. Ottawa Senators

Record: 34-39-4, -24
Last Week: 24th (-1)
Mike’s Rank: 25th
Scott’s Rank: 26th

Scott: Look, I thought the discourse surrounding Ridly Greig’s empty-net slap shot was overdone and very annoying. But it’s also really, really funny that when empty net disrespect happens to the Sens, they lose their minds. Even Brady Tkachuk, who was “crying laughing” when Greig did it, was quite vocally upset about Saturday’s events. I don’t even find this funny as a Leafs fan, I just enjoy how quickly it took for the Sens to be hypocritical about this whole situation.

26. Calgary Flames

Record: 34-37-5, -21
Last Week: 23rd (-3)
Mike’s Rank: 27th
Scott’s Rank: 25th

Mike: Yegor Sharangovich is a 30-goal scorer! What a coup that trade has turned out to be for the Flames, particularly given that Tyler Toffoli didn’t even last the full season in New Jersey before being flipped to the Jets for less than the Devils paid. Sharangovich has been the breakout star of an otherwise miserable year for this Flames team, which has truly embarked on a journey toward the bottom of the NHL standings over the past few weeks. At this rate, the Flames could easily drop below Ottawa, Montreal, and Arizona before the season is done. Tij Iginla beckons!

27. Arizona Coyotes

Record: 33-39-5, -17
Last Week: 27th (0)
Mike’s Rank: 26th
Scott’s Rank: 27th

Scott: While the Coyotes putting an end to their big losing streak and returning to more middling hockey is good news in and of itself for them, the bigger positive side for Arizona right now is that ownership has announced a commitment to win a land auction in Phoenix for a new arena. It’s far from certain that it will happen (they’ve lost their fair share of votes in this process already), but it’s at least a final glimmer of hope for Arizona hockey. Also, if they get the arena and move to Phoenix, do they change their name back to the Phoenix Coyotes?

Mike: Wishing all the devoted hockey fans in the desert the very best over the next few months. The die-hards down there go through emotional hell to support their team.

Scott: Yup, all seven of them.

28. Montreal Canadiens

Record: 29-36-12, -55
Last Week: 28th (0)
Mike’s Rank: 28th
Scott’s Rank: 28th

Mike: David Reinbacher has been doing well in his first tour of duty in North America with the AHL’s Laval Rocket, logging significant minutes and collecting two goals and four points through his first eight games. That’s nothing to scoff at for a 19-year-old defenseman. With their defense largely solidified and Juraj Slafkovsky joining Cole Caufield on the wings, it figures that Montreal’s next high pick should be used on a center. Macklin Celebrini would be the dream, but Cayden Lindstrom or Berkly Catton would also fit with what this organization is trying to build. It all just depends on how high (or low) they finish.

29. Columbus Blue Jackets

Record: 26-40-12, -57
Last Week: 29th (0)
Mike’s Rank: 29th
Scott’s Rank: 29th

Scott: The Blue Jackets have a bit of a hot streak for what feels like the first time this season, winning three of four games before their 3-0 loss to the Canes on Sunday. They set an interesting franchise record with their 6-2 win over the Flyers on Saturday, as all six goals came from defensemen for the first time in their history.

30. Chicago Blackhawks

Record: 23-49-5, -99
Last Week: 31st (+1)
Mike’s Rank: 30th
Scott’s Rank: 30th

Mike: These guys still need a lot of work. After being shut out by the Wild on Sunday, the Blackhawks are now 23-49-5 on the year. Connor Bedard has been strong offensively in his rookie season but his defensive results have been among the worst on an already poor defensive team. He’s going to need help going forward. But Chicago just doesn’t have the pieces just yet. Kevin Korchinski, Oliver Moore, Lukas Reichel, and Frank Nazar are all skilled players with enormous question marks. This is a team that still has a desperate need for blue-chip, no-doubt star talent. With how extensively Chicago stripped it down to the studs in an attempt to land Bedard in the first place, it’s going to take a long time to build it all back up.

31. Anaheim Ducks

Record: 25-48-5, -91
Last Week: 30th (-1)
Mike’s Rank: 31st
Scott’s Rank: 31st

Scott: With seven losses in their last eight games, the Ducks are very much checked out of this season, and even threatening to pass the Blackhawks in terms of lottery odds just like they have on our rankings. The most interesting thing involving the Ducks right now is Cutter Gauthier’s quest to win the NCAA men’s ice hockey championship, and the looming question for Ducks’ fans as to whether they want to see him win in college or lose in the semifinals to maybe get a few games of him in a Ducks jersey before the season ends.