NHL Prediction: December 19th Dallas Stars vs Anaheim Ducks

Anaheim Ducks Storyline

Anaheim continues to profile as a strong territorial team whose results remain driven by pace and execution rather than sustained zone pressure. At five-on-five, the Ducks sit north of 51 percent in both Corsi and Fenwick, but their expected-goals share remains below break-even. That gap reflects where their offence is coming from. Anaheim generates most of its damage off controlled entries and secondary rush waves rather than extended possession. Leo Carlsson remains the fulcrum, leading the team in on-ice shot share while driving play through the middle lanes. Troy Terry and Cutter Gauthier continue to benefit from that movement, but net-front conversion has been inconsistent.

Defensively, the Ducks still give up too many looks from the slot after initial coverage breaks down. Their high-danger chance share remains under 47 percent, which narrows their margin when goaltending is merely average. When Anaheim dictates tempo, the game tilts. When it slows, their structural flaws surface quickly.

The Model

The blended model simulates this matchup 10,000 times using four evenly weighted inputs. The in-house model gives Dallas a 54.0 percent edge, driven by finishing efficiency and defensive-zone control. MoneyPuck projects the Stars at 48.0 percent, reflecting Anaheim’s home-ice boost. Advanced Hockey Stats lists Dallas at 56 percent, citing special teams and goaltending separation. The market leans Stars at approximately −115. After blending all inputs, Dallas lands at 54.9 percent with fair odds near −122. Anaheim settles at 45.1 percent with fair odds around +122.

NHL Prediction

Anaheim’s speed and transition game give it the tools to stress Dallas early, particularly if the Ducks can generate odd-man looks before structure sets. However, Dallas’ ability to manage the middle of the ice and capitalize on second-chance opportunities tilts the matchup over 60 minutes. If the Stars can avoid extended penalty trouble and keep Anaheim to the perimeter, they should control the most dangerous stretches of the game.

Prediction: Stars win 4–3 (54.9% probability)

2025–26 Season Prediction Record: 6–8

Prop Bets of the Night

Tonight’s prop card leans into volume drivers and blue-line involvement rather than pure finishing. Cutter Gauthier over 3.5 shots on goal (+110) stands out given Anaheim’s reliance on transition speed against a Dallas team that concedes attempts off the rush. Gauthier continues to generate attempts at a strong rate at five-on-five, and his willingness to shoot off controlled entries gives him multiple paths to clear this number even without power-play production. On the Stars side, Miro Heiskanen over 0.5 assists (-110) profiles well against an Anaheim penalty kill that allows point-to-slot movement and second-touch chances. Heiskanen remains Dallas’ primary distributor from the blue line, and his involvement in both even-strength and power-play sequences provides assist equity without needing a high-event game.

2025–26 Season Prop Bet Record: 17–14 (+5.68 units)

Disclaimer: Projected lineups are based on available data at time of writing. Please check social media and official team sources for the very latest lineup news before locking in any daily fantasy roster or prop wagers.

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