NHL Predictions: Tampa Bay Lightning Three Keys to Victory vs. St. Louis Blues

The “box plus one” is meant to give up the perimeter in the offensive zone. Opponents typically counter this defensive zone strategy with lane switches and quick puck movement. When the offense switches lanes, the defensive team must communicate whether to stay in their zone or rotate spots. It is easy to tell the Lightning struggle with communication when Stamkos points in a panic for Brandon Hagel to cover down low right before the Flames’ third goal on Saturday (Hagel is not to blame for the goal, just an indicator of hesitation in the defensive zone).

Bottom-Six Play Driving

While the Lightning offence has found success this season, Nikita Kucherov has carried a heavy workload of the point-scoring share on the team. Outside their top players, the Lightning receives little help from their bottom-six forwards on offence. The current fourth line has combined for only six goals on the season. On the other hand, the Vancouver Canucks have four goals from their fourth line in the past seven games. The Lightning must target bottom-six play-driving forwards to establish themselves as a contender in the playoffs. Kucherov can not score every goal for this hockey club.

Hedman and Sergachev Defensive Play

Tampa Bay’s defensive issues can also be associated with the poor effort from their top two defencemen on the back half of the ice. Victor Hedman and Mikhail Sergachev have performed below expectations on the defensive side of the puck. Both players are constantly out of position and allow goals against at a league-worst rate at 5v5.

Sergachev ranks 18th worst in goals against per hour amongst defencemen at 5v5 this season (3.35 GA/60). Furthermore, Hedman ranks 49th worst in goals against per hour amongst defencemen at 5v5 (2.88 GA/60). An elite-caliber defender in the modern NHL must be responsible defensively while providing all-star offensive production. The two Lightning blue-liners constantly sacrifice offence for defence, and this play style has not translated to team success.

Prediction Time

This cross-conference matchup will likely feature a lot of goals, considering both teams’ defensive struggles. The Blues beat the Lightning by a score of 5-0 last time these two faced off. The Lighting was without Kucherov, and the team looked flat on both sides of the puck. With Kucherov back in the lineup, we expect a different story this time. Tampa Bay has been excellent on home ice this season, so we project them to grab two points.

Prediction: Tampa Bay wins 5-3

On-Ice Statistics via Natural Stat Trickc