NHL Predictions: Tampa Bay Lightning vs the L.A Kings

Each day, our writers here at Last Word On Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. For this edition, we will look at the Tampa Bay Lightning hosting the Los Angeles Kings. Don’t forget to check out more NHL Predictions, as our writers continue this series throughout the 2025–26 season.

NHL Predictions Overview

Time: 7:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST)

How to watch: The Spot, FDSNW

Location: Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL

2025–26 Season Series: Tampa Bay 0, Los Angeles 0

The Bolts (18-12-3) remain home to face the Los Angeles Kings (14-9-9) in a matchup of two teams mired in mediocrity over their last ten games. Tampa (4-5-1) is coming off a 5–2 loss to the state rivals, the Florida Panthers. J.J. Moser and Max Crozier put the biscuit in the gravy, while Brayden Point notched two assists. Jonas Johansson started his seventh-straight game in Andrei Vasilevskiy’s injury absence and made 19 saves. The Big Cat should be back soon, so it’s back to reading a good novel on the bench for Jonas. The Kings (4-3-3 in their last 10) lost 4-1 to the Dallas Stars on Tuesday night. Andrei Kuzmenko scored an unassisted 5-on-3 goal for the Kings, who have lost their last three games. However, this is a good chance to add our disclaimer. Please check social media for the very latest lineup news before locking in your daily fantasy rosters.

Tampa Bay Lightning Outlook

Tampa Bay’s Jekyll and Hyde offence continues to confound. The Lightning rank seventh in the NHL in goals per game (3.21),  but their 21st-ranked power play efficiency (17.3%) is driven largely by the familiar core. Nikita Kucherov leads the team with 42 points (13 goals, 29 assists), while Brandon Hagel and Jake Guentzel have combined for 31 goals this season.

Andrei Vasilevskiy needs to return to form when he starts again. Over his last five starts, he was 4-0-1 and keeping this aging mercenary squad alive.  Tampa’s biggest concern remains defensive consistency at five-on-five, where they sit in the middle of the pack in expected goals against.

Keys to Victory – Tampa Bay

NHL Predictions thinks the Bolts need to win special teams battles. Los Angeles owns a strong defensive identity, but their penalty kill sits around 80%. Drawing penalties and capitalizing could tilt the game quickly. Pace the Kings out of structure. The Lightning average 27.8 shots per game, while the Kings prefer slower, lower-event hockey. Sustained offensive-zone pressure will force LA’s defence to break shape, something they struggle with against high-skill teams. Protect the slot for your goalie. Tampa allows fewer than 10 high-danger chances per game when structured properly. Keeping LA to the perimeter plays directly into Vasilevskiy’s strengths.

Los Angeles Kings Outlook

The Kings remain one of the league’s most disciplined defensive teams. They rank third in goals against per game (2.53) and top five in shot suppression, allowing fewer than 27.3 shots per contest.  Offensively, LA relies on balance rather than star power. Adrian Kempe leads the way with 11 goals, while Kevin Fiala‘s 11 goals keep this a committee decision on who’s putting the bun in the oven. Goaltender Darcy Kuemper has been steady, posting a .917 save percentage on the season, but has been letting in some soft goals of late. Hollywood does not like soft openings.

Keys to Victory – Los Angeles

NHL Predictions feels the Kings need to control tempo and limit rush chances. The Kings are 9–1–1 when holding opponents under 30 shots. Slowing Tampa’s transition game and forcing dump-ins will be critical. Net-front execution. It’s like ocean-front property. Make memories there, and everyone is happy. Vasilevskiy is elite on first saves, but LA scores over 30% of its goals on rebounds and tips. Traffic and second chances will be the Kings’ best offensive path. Stay out of the box. This is non-negotiable. The Kings are 7–2–1 when taking fewer than three penalties in a game. Giving Tampa extended power-play looks is a recipe for disaster, not Pina Coladas, or whatever they drink in Tampa under the palm trees.

NHL Predictions: Who Takes the W?

This matchup feels like a clash of philosophies. Tampa wants speed, skill, and special teams. Los Angeles wants patience, structure, and successful Box Office receipts. At home, with Vasilevskiy  (if he’s back) and Tampa’s defence firing, the Lightning have the edge.

Prediction: Lightning 4, Kings 2

Prop Bets of the Night

• Under 6.5 Total Goals (Kings’ structure keeps things tighter than most Tampa Bay speedos at the beach.)

Final Thoughts

NHL Predictions thinks this game will be decided by discipline and execution rather than fireworks. If the Kings can survive the special teams battle, they’ll have a chance, but Tampa at home remains a tough problem to solve.

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