NHL prop bets for March 2: Power-play opportunity

It's been a few weeks since we dug into a certain NHL prop, that being power-play points. The public test was underwhelming, so the best course of action was pull back and reassess.

Well, I'm dusting off the science experiment, because Wednesday in the NHL offers a tantalizing intersection of data points that support a power-play goal. Let me explain.

What Is a Power-Play Point?

Quickly, for those who haven't tested this prop market, a power-play point (henceforth referred to as PPP) is an assist or goal recorded while on the power play.

Look at Toronto Wednesday

The game we've circled for a power-play goal is Toronto, one of the best intersections of metrics I've seen in weeks.

Let's first look at some of the more traditional numbers before expanding the research into some next-level analytics.

In their past 20 games, Toronto's power-play success rate ranks fourth in the NHL, while Buffalo's penalty kill ranks third-worst.

That alone is a clear disparity in quality, suggesting that should the Maple Leafs get a few opportunities Wednesday, they can take advantage.

On a penalties per game basis, the Sabres average the 13th most, an above-average mark that shows Toronto should get these 5-on-4 chances on Wednesday night.

What takes this to the next level is a new layer of information now at my disposal.

I was chatting with a friend today who walked me through a tremendous resource, Natural Stat Trick. I've been aware of the site, using it for shots data, but a new statistic has me loving this game for a power-play goal.

The metric here is "Expected Goals per 60 minutes (xGF)," which loosely translates to how many goals a team is expected to have in various situations based on shot quality and situation.

The higher the number, the more often a team should see goal-scoring.

Toronto's xGF ranks second-highest in the league on the power play and Buffalo's 'Expected Goals Against' is also second-most when on the penalty kill.

Translation: The metrics suggest the Leafs should be scoring a lot on the power play and the Sabres should be allowing a lot of goals when on the penalty kill.

The Prop Betting Approach and Players

We've established that Toronto has an edge on the power play Wednesday, now it's about loading up the right players to score.

For those who were following this experiment a few weeks ago, we had settled on the strategy of placing a bet on each member of the top PP line to record a PPP.

The logic there is that a power-play goal very likely would be shared between three members. As long as it's the top line that scores, we should get three of the five bets correct, netting us a profit.

Toronto hasn't scored much on the power play, which I see working in our favor. We get some solid odds on the Leafs top line.

I'll be betting on each, risking .2u per player. That adds up to 1 full unit on the top line. The best odds for Toronto PPPs are on FanDuel.

The Props

• Auston Matthews PPP (+144)
• John Tavares PPP (+172)
• Mitch Marner PPP (+164)
• William Nylander PPP (+220)
• Morgan Rielly PPP (+250)

You can differ your approach here, instead opting to just load up one or two of the above, if you agree with the science behind this bet.

Here's to a Toronto power-play goal Wednesday night!