Minnesota Wild forward Kirill Kaprizov (97). Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

NHL props for Thursday, Dec. 14: Backing a pair of stars

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated 12/14/23

We had a down night yesterday, but we're back into the mix here, staying away from the SGPs tonight and instead focusing on a pair of straights on superstars stepping up.

Kirill Kaprizov over 3.5 SOG (+100 FD)

I think we're about due for some positive regression to come Kirill Kaprizov's way. He's over this line in just three of his last 10 games, but the volume is very much there, averaging 7.6 attempts/game and seeing a base of six in 10 straight.

When Kaprizov finds 6+ attempts, he's over this line at a 65% rate over the last three seasons, and 70% at home.

He's getting an unusual amount of shots blocked at the moment, with 4.2 per game over his last five, and with Calgary a middle-of-the-road team for blocking shots, I'm expecting that number to be less so tonight.

Factor in the Flames are allowing 34.1 shots per game on the road over the last month, and I know Minnesota is getting pucks on net.

Kaprizov has feasted on the Flames the past few seasons, averaging 9.1 attempts/game, going over this line in six of the past seven.

Connor McDavid over 1.5 points (-111 FD)

I'm likely playing McDavid points at home until a) he stops hitting this line or b) the line becomes unplayable straight.

We're given quite the price on McDavid to keep things rolling here, and against a Tampa Bay team allowing 4.0 goals per game on the road over the past month, it's a play for me.

Andrei Vasilevskiy is back for the Lightning, but he's had his issues this year, including 3+ goals allowed in four straight road starts.

Tampa Bay also has a below-average penalty kill, which is not an ideal situation against an Edmonton power play that is humming on all cylinders.

Oh yeah, McDavid. He is over this line in eight of his past 10 games, has 18 points in his past six at home, and he has logged 2+ points in five of the past six meetings with Tampa Bay.

Nobody digs in the corners for picks on pucks like YB's Griffin Carroll. Follow him at griffybets.substack.com for NHL data, trends and targets.

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