Nick Robertson’s new contract is a cost-effective bet which accelerates his Leafs timeline

Nick Robertson and the Toronto Maple Leafs agreed to a one-year pact worth $1.825 million for the 2025-26 season, avoiding Sunday’s scheduled arbitration hearing. It’s a fair deal for both parties, it’s a cost-effective bet by the Maple Leafs and in some ways, it represents Robertson’s last real chance of making an impact within the organization.

It has often been argued that Robertson would fare better elsewhere because of his player profile. Robertson is a skilled forward, his best asset is his shot, but he often struggles to find the space to get his release off at the NHL level. He’s still just 23 years old, which is sometimes lost on upon Leafs Nation, as he scored as an 18-year-old against the Columbus Blue Jackets in the 2020 playoffs, the third player in franchise history to reach this early milestone. It may have portended a brighter future for Robertson and he’s often frustrated some fans for not meeting his potential with the Maple Leafs. Now, the Leafs have cost certainty to work with and Robertson’s contract may be an attractive discussion point in any potential trade, whether in the early stages of the season, or near the trade deadline.

Robertson will be afforded every chance to become a regular in Craig Berube’s lineup, but his space isn’t guaranteed. Toronto restructured its forward corps this summer after Mitch Marner was traded to the Vegas Golden Knights in exchange for Nicolas Roy, who will almost certainly slot in as the team’s No. 3 centre. Dakota Joshua was acquired in a trade with the Vancouver Canucks, while new addition Matias Maccelli is earmarked for the top-six, looking to bounce back from a disappointing year with the Utah Mammoth. There is real internal competition with the bottom-six, with Robertson, Bobby McMann and Scott Laughton among others looking to justify further ice time, while the Maple Leafs certainly need real secondary scoring after Marner’s departure. If Robertson wants to be a part of the Maple Leafs’ future, he’s now been signed to a prove-it deal, and if he’s really the efficient scorer that his per/60 numbers seem to project (T-50th in the NHL among all skaters with 200 minutes or greater at 5-on-5 last season) there’s no better time to display this element on a more consistent basis.

Toronto enters the 2025-26 season with less star power but greater depth among its forward corps and Robertson is a known as a pure scorer that has been subject to bouts of inconsistency during his professional tenure. He has to shoot the puck in the net more often, even his his per/60 numbers suggest that he’d benefit from greater playing time. Robertson either cements himself as a key part of the Leafs’ future or he becomes an attractive player to trade, with a contract that many other suitors would deem as a low-risk, high-reward proposition. In any event, Robertson’s new deal accelerates his timeline with the Maple Leafs. It’s now incumbent upon him to make the most of his latest and perhaps final opportunity with the team that drafted him.