Nick Robertson’s situation is the same as it ever was following 2024-25 season

The 2023-24 season ended with Nick Robertson playing 56 regular-season games and six playoff games, averaging 11:23 minutes a night. This utilization led to Robertson putting in a trade request to the Toronto Maple Leafs, one that they didn’t oblige and instead ended up signing the winger for another year, presenting Toronto as Robertson’s best opportunity to play an offensive role in the top-nine forward group for a playoff-bound team.

While the Leafs found 13 more regular season games for Robertson this year and saw his average ice time per game increase to 12 minutes, Nick played fewer games in the playoffs, despite picking up a couple of points when he was in the lineup. Back in restricted free agency again (this time with arbitration rights), the Leafs and Robertson might be ready to move on from each other.

How the year went

When thinking about who Nick Robertson was in 2023-24, he seemed very much like he was cut from the same cloth as other depth scoring options like Daniel Sprong or Brandon Pirri. Players that might seem to be one-dimensional shooters that don’t have much to offer when the puck isn’t on their stick and often struggle to create the play, even if they are capable of finishing it. That’s not a criticism of any of those players since if you are going to have a single dimension in your hockey game, a goal-scoring tough seems to be the one to have.

That looked like the path that Nick Robertson might have been on under Sheldon Keefe, and Craig Berube certainly offered up the possibility of a fresh start. That fresh start didn’t go particularly well.

Robertson would pick up just two points (both goals) in his first 23 games of the season, which didn’t make it look like his one dimension was going particularly well. The contrast to that was that, although rather small at 5’9, Robertson was willing to forecheck, chase after the puck, and apply pressure to puck carriers. The effort made it hard to take him out of the lineup (as did the Leafs injury situation), but after finding some midseason offensive chemistry with Bobby McMann and Max Domi, I guess the narrative becomes that Nick Robertson had 20 points in 46 games, which doesn’t look too shabby for a bottom six winger.

Production would still come in bursts for Robertson, and he gained a reputation for producing especially well after healthy scratches. That’s probably not what someone striving to be an everyday player wants to become known for, but taking on a bit of a specialist role on a deep team isn’t a bad thing for a young player.

The catch here is that Robertson, while adding a bit more value away from the puck, still wasn’t particularly helpful in the defensive zone, and the Leafs had the tendency to experience bad shifts if Domi and Robertson were on the ice together in Toronto’s end. The sheltering aspect of Robertson’s game certainly led to the preference towards using players like Max Pacioretty and even Pontus Holmberg in the playoffs, and it’s entirely possible that despite two points in three games in the playoffs, the lack of usage of Robertson serves as writing on the wall for the winger’s future in Toronto.

Statistical profile

Minimum of 700 5v5 minutes played.

The above data on Nick Robertson tells an interesting story. When Robertson was on the ice, the Leafs were certainly shooting. The shots, Fenwick, and even Corsi support that the Leafs were shooting. The issue is when you take a look at the Expected Goals and High Danger Corsi, and you can see that it was shots being fired from low-percentage areas. The reality is that when Robertson was on the ice, the Leafs were only at 2.02 xGF/60 and had only 2.26 GF/60. Given that Domi and Robertson are almost exclusively on the Leafs to create offence, that wasn’t enough and is a sign that the Leafs need to get better, either by finding the right lineup fit, right system, or consider replacement so the Leafs don’t see their offence evapourate as soon as the top two lines are on the bench.

The thing is, Robertson’s shot, which is one of the best releases in the NHL, doesn’t require that he be in the higher percentage shooting areas. His goal production still manages to align with his shooting and shot attempts more than the requirement that he’s in an area where goals are expected. Whether that is something that will hold up consistently throughout his career or occur at similar rates if put in situations with improved offensive catalysts is up for debate. His 2.35 iHDCF/60 is also low at 290th in the league. It’s not a damning quality as you don’t have to sit on a goaltender to score. Leon Draisaitl is 277th in the league with a 2.44 iHDCF/60, and there will be people talking about Brock Boeser as an option for the Leafs this summer; his iHDCF/60 sits at 2.26 or 297th in the league. Given the potential cost of Boeser and the limitations of his game, retaining a player like Robertson and continuing to look at giving him more opportunities might make more sense than an expensive free-agent winger.

It probably isn’t a coincidence that Robertson’s best results came when he was given a playmaking linemate to work with, and while Domi and Robertson together is understandably too much of a defensive liability, there does seem to be a path forward with Robertson as a second or third-line finisher.

The catch with Robertson is whether he is now completely done with the Leafs. This season was supposed to be different, and it played out in a very similar fashion for Robertson. The arbitration rights attached to his restricted free agency might also be a barrier that scares the Leafs off. The number that could come through arbitration, that the Leafs would be required to accept unless it was astronomically high, could fall outside the Leafs’ budget, and with Toronto having a number of hard-to-manage bottom-six forward contracts already, Treliving might give up on the young winger early.

Robertson by no means had a perfect season, but his game showed improvement in 2024-25. More than anything else, his future in Toronto will come down to whether the Leafs trust him with more playing time.

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