Offseason checklist for the Detroit Red Wings

The offseason has arrived for all but a handful of teams who are still taking part in the playoffs.  Accordingly, it’s now time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at the Detroit Red Wings.

Amid a seven-year postseason drought, the Red Wings performed admirably during the 2023-24 NHL season, playing meaningful hockey until the last game of the regular season. Detroit is on the cusp of returning to the Stanley Cup playoffs as early as next year but will have to make some changes to realize that goal after taking a major step forward in their rebuild. General Manager Steve Yzerman is now at a point to put the finishing touches on a playoff-caliber roster this summer after completing much of the heavy lifting already.

Re-sign the youngsters

One of the major themes of the 2023-24 season for Detroit was the emergence of winger Lucas Raymond as a legitimate top-line player and confirmation that defenseman Moritz Seider can lead a defensive core. The Red Wings will have the opportunity to keep both in the Motor City until the 2031-32 NHL season with both players seeing their entry-level contracts expire on July 1.

Even though the team carried big names up front such as Dylan Larkin, Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat, Raymond still led the way offensively for Detroit, scoring 31 goals and 72 points over a full 82-game season. Raymond was irreplaceable down the stretch, scoring 14 goals and 21 points in his last 18 games, keeping the Red Wings afloat in the Eastern Conference wild-card race.

On defense, claiming that Seider has shouldered a heavy load through his first three seasons is an understatement. Seider has not missed a game and has averaged 22:51 of ice time over his entry-level deal since his debut in the 2021-22 season. Even though Seider passes the eye test; his advanced numbers have been more than subpar throughout his career. According to Natural Stat Trick, Seider carried a CorsiFor% of 45.64% which is not a sustainable metric for a top defenseman. However, to push back on Seider’s dismal possession numbers, at even strength, 61% of Seider’s shift starts came in the defensive zone which has made shot creation much more difficult on his part.

Seider’s numbers are reflective of the fact that he is one of the only members of Detroit’s defensive core that can be trusted in the defensive zone against other teams’ top lines and his numbers have suffered from it. If the Red Wings can procure another defenseman to take the pressure off of Seider, his game should flourish in the aftermath.

If the Red Wings are going to sign either player to a long-term deal this summer it is most likely going to be Seider as right-handed defensemen of his caliber do not necessarily grow on trees. For Raymond, a bridge deal seems advantageous for both sides as Raymond would set himself up for a bigger payday in the future and Detroit can confirm that Raymond is the player shown throughout the 2023-24 regular season before doling out serious cash.

Assuming the Red Wings follow that method, Seider’s next contract should check in just south of Owen Power’s seven-year, $58.45M contract signed with the Buffalo Sabres last year, while Raymond’s should check in at $6M-$6.5M on a two- or three-year deal.

Find another star

For each team that narrowly missed the 2024 Stanley Cup playoffs the season will be full of several “what ifs?”. For the Red Wings in particular, that question revolves solely around Larkin and how the team performs when he is and isn’t in the lineup.

In the 68 games that Larkin suited up for Detroit this season, the team held a 37-22-9 record while carrying a strong 3.54 GF/G with a 3.24 GA/G. In his absence, however, the team produced a 4-10-0 record and only a dismal 2.64 GF/G and an even worse 3.87 GA/G. This season made clear that given how the team plays without Larkin, the Red Wings must procure a player who can drive the team to wins even when Larkin cannot be in the lineup.

On the unrestricted free-agent market this summer, an ideal candidate for this role would be the current captain of the Tampa Bay Lightning Steven Stamkos. For the past 16 years, Stamkos has been a foundational part of the Lightning organization as he’s won two Stanley Cup championships in four total appearances. From 2010-2018, Yzerman formerly served as general manager of the Lightning and signed Stamkos to two separate contracts worth a combined total of $105.5M over the last 13 seasons. Yzerman may look to poach his former player from the Lightning to fill this void for Detroit given their previous history over much of Stamkos’ career in the NHL.

Outside of the free agent market this summer, Yzerman may even feel confident procuring this player via trade with the Red Wings stockpiling so much young talent over his tenure in the front office. As with any team coming out of a rebuild, there will still be some untouchables in the prospect pool for Detroit. Still, Yzerman may be willing to part with Jonatan Berggren, Marco Kasper, William Wallinder or the 15th overall pick of the 2024 NHL Draft if the price is right.

Stabilize the defensive core

Surprisingly, even at 23 years old, Seider represents the longest-tenured member of the Red Wings on defense already. Over the last two offseasons, Detroit has brought in Ben Chiarot, Justin Holl, Olli Maatta, Shayne Gostisbehere and Jeff Petry, with Jake Walman coming a little over two years ago via trade.

With the emergence of Simon Edvinsson and the eventual call-up of Axel Sandin-Pellikka, the Red Wings are once again in a position to thin out their defensive unit. Not only do they need to thin out the saturation but they also need to procure a solid top-four defenseman to lighten the burden on Seider.

As good as he was during the regular season, it is likely in Detroit’s best interest to let Gostisbehere walk this summer as well as scan the trade market for both Holl and Petry. By doing that the Red Wings would be able to keep the top unit of Walman and Seider together, shift Chiarot and Maatta into the bottom pairing and sign a top-four right-handed defenseman this summer to put next to Edvinsson.