Offseason Game-Breaker Targets for the Red Wings

When I first started writing for Inside the Rink just under a year ago, one of the first guys I was really pushing for was Mason McTavish out of Anaheim as an option for either the first-line wing or second-line center. He’s only 23 and hasn’t recorded a full season with less than 40 points in his career, even recording 41 points in 75 games playing only 15:19 per game.

Anaheim has made their top six centers pretty clear at this point; it’s going to be Carlsson and Granlund for the foreseeable future. Makes you wonder where they see McTavish. Believe me, I’m sure they have no problem keeping him around. He’s incredibly young and could step into the second-line center spot again when Granlund retires. He’s also the kind of player you want to come playoff time, he has a big frame and lands over a hit per game.

But even in a league where the salary cap is having less and less effect on teams, McTavish’s $7,000,000 cap hit for a third-line center probably isn’t ideal for Anaheim. Anaheim needs to cough up serious money to both Cutter Gauthier and Leo Carlsson. Both of those contracts should be well over $10,000,000 if their agents are at all competent. Not to mention the Ducks only have one of the six defensemen on their playoff depth chart signed into next season. I’d imagine you could see how even Anaheim’s $40,000,000 in cap space could be chewed away pretty quickly. McTavish’s contract could be the difference in making this all work.

McTavish fits what Detroit needs. He’s a bulky young center who has shown he’s capable of offense. As a left shot, he can play on the top-line wing, or stay at his natural center position. Admittedly, McTavish is pretty poor defensively and plays fairly sheltered deployments. He’s also not as great of a skater as you might like.

McTavish is probably one of the most expensive names in this group due to his age and pedigree. There are plenty of teams that would love McTavish’s services. There’s still a lot to like with him and serious room to grow across the board. Again, the guy is only 23; he’s far from his peak at this point.

Elias Pettersson

There’s reason to be concerned about Elias Pettersson. If you thought McTavish’s $7,000,000 cap hit wasn’t ideal, I’m not sure you’ll love Pettersson’s. He’s shown a serious lack of effort, mental fragility, and a lack of scoring ability when the going gets tough. Pettersson is exactly what is wrong with the Red Wings right now, and yet, I’m still willing to take the gamble on him.

Let’s start with the unfortunate part of all this. Elias Pettersson, even in his current form, would be a top-five forward on this Red Wings team. He’s still an upgrade over Andrew Copp on the second line and a pretty vast improvement over anyone in the bottom six.

The main part of this is that Pettersson is pretty much due to improve. MoneyPuck had his adjusted expected goals to be 21 this season, 6 less than he recorded. He was playing against 95th percentile competition with teammates that were in the 30th percentile according to data from HockeyStatCards. Playing on the worst team in the league with Evander Kane and Jake DeBrusk as your primary support probably isn’t going to get you any great totals.

This is not me saying Pettersson will become a 90 point guy again if he made it to Detroit. Believe me, I’ve been way too over-eager about this kind of thing before (case in point, my Marco Kasper predictions). But I think it would be disingenuous to say it isn’t worth seeing what’s there. It wouldn’t surprise me if he became a 25 goal, 65 point guy on a line with Raymond and Finnie. Is it worth the contract? Probably not, but that’s where you have to hope the good deals Detroit got on Raymond and Seider can help it even out.

Nico Hischier

I’ve heard rumors about Hischier because the Devils are going to be under new management and may want to shake things up, but I’m not sure what that has to do with Hischier. Believe me, I want him more than anyone else on this list by a comfortable margin. He’s an incredibly defensive center that would ease the burden on Dylan Larkin while still being able to grab 70-points. I just don’t know why New Jersey would move him.

The comments Hischier made sounded unsure about staying in New Jersey. He only has two more seasons worth of term on his contract and a 10-team no-trade list. If this new management group doesn’t get the sense he’s going to stay, I could see them making a deal to move him.

If he is truly available and the Red Wings are one of the teams that could get this done, I don’t know why they should hold back. I’d be alright with Yzerman dropping a Quinn Hughes level offer for Hischier to come to Detroit. He solves the center position for the entirety of the cup window and remains one of the best 1B centers in the NHL.

The Devils, like the Ducks are in a bit of a cap crunch. Unlike the Ducks, they need a major shakeup on their roster. If Hischier becomes a casualty because of that, Detroit would be too stupid not to pounce on it, but I wouldn’t hold your breath.

Kent Johnson

This is probably the riskiest of all the names on this list. Kent Johnson is probably the least proven on this list. The former 5th overall pick had a pretty brutal season. By almost every metric, Kent Johnson was one of the most disappointing forwards in the NHL this season. But much like Pettersson, it’s a risk I’m ready to take.

Last season, Kent Johnson was on pace for 70 points. This season, he was on pace for just 24. His 20% shooting percentage from last season was obviously unsustainable, but dropping all the way down to 6% feels unsustainable in the opposite direction. His expected goals was up to 11, which is a minor improvement from the 7 he had. But beyond that, looking for positives is bleak.

The hope with Johnson would be that he comes relatively cheap into Detroit and can be the current answer on the top line left wing and the long-term answer to Patrick Kane on the second line. While I like the long term goal, I don’t love Johnson in the short term.

He’s a much smaller frame than anyone else on this list and doesn’t play with the DeBrincat-level of bite that makes up for it. He also played much easier minutes this season in Columbus than he would as a top-six guy in Detroit. He faced the depth lines of other teams, primarily in the offensive zone and it would be the opposite if he was to fit in with Larkin and Raymond. Not to mention he’d be playing about four extra minutes each night in those tougher minutes.

If I seem a little iffy on Johnson, it’s because I am. The upside is clearly there to be a 70 point playmaker. But he just as easily could become a guy who just can’t get it going when it matters most. The reason I said that it was worth the risk before is simply that Detroit needs help anywhere they can get it.

They’re going to need to try something at some point.