Oilers 2026 trade deadline target: Rasmus Ristolainen

The Edmonton Oilers have struggled defensively this season.

No matter which goaltender the Oilers have between the pipes, they’ll continue allowing goals? Why? Well, the Oilers have given up a bunch of high-danger chances this season during five-on-five action, 555 to be exact. 

While they’ve also started to generate more of their own high-danger chances, it’s a large difference from the last two seasons when they went on to the Stanley Cup Finals. Case in point, the Oilers gave up just 643 high-danger chances last season, fourth fewest in the league, while their 671 high-danger scoring chances against in 2023-24 were the sixth-fewest in the league.

It’s been said that the Oilers are looking to add a scoring winger before March 6th’s deadline, but adding a defenceman is arguably a bigger need for the team. Enter Rasmus Ristolainen.

Daily Faceoff’s Anthony Di Marco reported that the Philadelphia Flyers are listening to offers on the right-shot defenceman, but are not actively shopping him. The Turku, Finland native hasn’t generated much interest according to Di Marco, but the 31-year-old ranked as a name to keep an eye on in Daily Faceoff’s most recent trade board.

Ristolainen’s fit

The Finnish right-shot defenceman was drafted eighth overall in 2013 by the Buffalo Sabres. Early in his career, Ristolainen was a point-getting defenceman who was a liability in his own end, finishing with 40-or-more points from 2015-16 until 2018-19.

However, Ristolainen has emerged as a strong defender since joining the Philadelphia Flyers, due in large part to being coached by John Tortorella. In 2023-24, the Flyers had 56.19 percent of the expected goals while Ristolainen was on the ice, outshooting the opposition. It was much of the same in 2024-25, as the team had a 51.33 percent expected goal share, while slightly being outshot.

One area in which Ristolainen has helped the Flyers is helping generate high-danger scoring opportunities while limiting the opposition’s opportunities. Prior to 2022-23, Ristolainen had just one season where his team generated more high-danger scoring opportunities during five-on-five action. But since the start of the 2022-23 season, the Flyers have had 526 high danger opportunities while giving up 464 high danger scoring opportunities, good enough for a HDCF% of 53.1%.

The right-shot defenceman has missed most of this season, as well as most of the 2023-24 season. Through 19 games with the Flyers, the Turku, Finland product has a goal and six points in 63 games, coming off a season with four goals and 19 points.

Because of his improved ability to defend and past point production, Ristolainen may be a good option to slot in beside Darnell Nurse on the Oilers’ second defence pairing, while Jake Walman drops down to the third pairing to play alongside Spencer Stastney, Ty Emberson, or Alec Regula.

Ristolainen cap hit

One sticking point to any hypothetical deal is Ristolainen’s cap hit. The 31-year-old has an annual cap hit of $5.1 million until the end of the 2026-27 season. Di Marco reported that the Flyers are willing to eat some of that contract, but it stands to reason that it’ll cost extra for any team looking to acquire him.

It’s also something that would be needed for the Oilers. As it stands, they have a cap hit of $2,888 million, but when accounting for Adam Henrique’s return from the long-term injured reserve, they’ll already be over the cap by just over $1.772 million.

Simply put, the Oilers will have to clear cap space, and that can be done by trading Andrew Mangiapane and his $3.6 million cap hit. Once that is done, the Oilers would have about $1.828 million in cap space with Henrique off the LTIR and no other additional moves.

With 50% retention, Ristolainen would have a cap hit of $2.55 million, meaning the Oilers would need to send money back the other way, or send down a player making the league minimum, such as Alec Regula.

There’s certainly a way to make a hypothetical Ristolainen trade work, but what would it cost the Oilers?

Ristolainen’s cost of acquisition

In that same Daily Faceoff article, Di Marco reported that the Flyers are looking for a Ben Chiarot type of deal. Before the 2022 trade deadline, the Florida Panthers sent an unprotected 2023 first round pick, a 2022 fourth round pick, and prospect Ty Smilanic to the Montréal Canadiens for the rental defenceman with 50% retention. It’s worth noting that Smilanic was a third rounder two years prior.

The main difference between Chiarot and Ristolainen is that the latter has an additional year remaining on his contract, so it’s not hard to envision him landing a little bit of a better package. It’s doable, as the Oilers have their 2027 first, a 2026 third, and could throw in one of their numerous American Hockey League prospects.

It’s worth noting that this move nearly backfired for the Panthers. They went on to win the Presidents’ Trophy that year, made the second round, but were swept by the reigning Stanley Cup champions, the Tampa Bay Lightning. At a certain point, it looked as if the Panthers were going to be a lottery team in the 2023 draft before getting hot. They overcame a 3-1 series deficit to the Boston Bruins, and the rest is history.

Trading the first this year should be done, the Oilers’ window is quickly closing, but is it worth giving up for a defenceman like Ristolainen? We’ll see.

Trade deadline preview series

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