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The vibes in Edmonton aren’t the greatest these days, and it’s easy to see why.
The team is decimated with injuries to superstars Connor McDavid and Leon Drasiaitl, while their best all-around defenceman Mattias Ekholm is recovering from an ailment of his own. Their No. 1 netminder, Stuart Skinner, has been out for weeks after getting kneed in the head, while Evander Kane is still working his way back from abdominal surgery he underwent in September.
Oh yeah, and one of the three players they picked up ahead of the trade deadline — and already injured Trent Frederic just re-aggravated that ankle injury.
But fear not, says Daily Faceoff’s Matt Larkin, who sees the Edmonton Oilers as one of four teams that have six of seven key ingredients to winning a Stanley Cup.
The seven key ingredients Larkin has identified, looking back at the 10 most recent Stanley Cup winners, are: team weight, top-10 scorers, a top-10 goalie, a positive expected goal differential, penalty kill efficiency, Stanley Cup rings in the room, and trade deadline pickups.
Of the seven, the only one the Oilers don’t have is a top-1o goaltender.
The Oilers, health permitting, remain exactly what we thought they were: great in all facets of the game save for their obvious weakness, goaltending. Their 2024 Cup Final counterparts, the Panthers, check fewer boxes than they did last year, but their ceiling remains sky-high if their top talents, such as Matthew Tkachuk, are healthy in time for the postseason.
The “health permitting” part of that evaluation will be key. If the Oilers are able to get their stars back up to 100 percent, and the other pieces can get back to their game, Edmonton could still undoubtedly be a serious contender.
After all, sportsbooks like Bet 365 still see the Oilers as much, with +950 odds — implied odds of 9.52 percent — that are equal with the Colorado Avalanche, trailing the Florida Panthers (+650, 13.4 percent implied odds) and Dallas Stars (+560, 15.15 percent implied odds).
Just one of those teams also have six of seven Stanley Cup ingredients, the Avalanche, along with the Los Angeles Kings, and Winnipeg Jets. The Dallas Stars, Seattle Kraken, Tampa Bay lightning, Toronto Maple Leafs, Vegas Golden Knights, and Washington Capitals are the six teams who have five of seven ingredients.
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Five NHL players who may benefit from positive regression in 2025-26
Whether you like it or not, math and luck play a role in hockey. Sometimes players are scoring or stopping the puck at a higher rate than they usually do, and sometimes they’re doing it at a lower rate. Regardless, the bill always comes due, and those percentages swing the other way, unless the player is just that good. Every year, we see some players have down years compared to the rest of their career, and they usually bounce back the following season. So I thought it’d be a good idea to take a look at some players who underperformed their percentages in 2024-25 and will possibly see those results go the other way next year. This list will just be looking at regular-season performances, as the playoffs being such a small sample size for even the teams going on deep runs means that there are too many anomalies to choose from. It’s not a guarantee that every player on this list will get better, especially when percentages don’t play nearly as much of an impact on regression as it used to. But it’s still important to look at and be aware of them, especially if you’re a fan wanting to manage expectations, or a fantasy hockey player looking for potential steals in this season’s draft. Before we begin, here are a few honorable mentions: Thatcher Demko, Vancouver Canucks: 2024-25 was a season to forget for Demko. It took him a significant amount of time to recover from the injury that he sustained in the 2024 playoffs, and then on top of dealing with more injuries for the rest of the season, he saw his on-ice performance drop. After finishing as a Vezina finalist in 2023-24, he sported an .889 save percentage, a .021 drop from his career average. However, a lot of that was just regression from his 2023-24 season, and despite all of that, he still managed a 6.78 5v5 goals saved above expected, so the talent is still there. While he may not be a Vezina candidate this season, expect him to return to the level of a high-end NHL starter for the Vancouver Canucks. Anthony Duclair, New York Islanders: It wasn’t a great start to Duclair’s tenure with the New York Islanders last season. After signing the longest contract of his career, Duclair played just five games before a torn groin kept him out of the lineup for two months, and he was never quite able to recover his game for the rest of the season. He managed to get into just 44 games, and had just seven goals and an alarming low total of just four assists. However, with an on-ice shooting percentage of 6.87%, a lot of those low totals came from some extremely bad luck. He should see a shift in that this season, especially as the Islanders look to finally move on from their mediocre core under new management. William Karlsson, Vegas Golden Knights: I had identified Karlsson as a regression candidate last summer after scoring 30 goals and shooting 17.1% to get there, so it should be no surprise that he saw that performance swing the other way in 2024-25. While injuries held him to just 53 games, he still finished the season with only nine goals and 29 points, shooting 7.6%. Considering that his career SH% is 12.6%, his performance between the two seasons is about as clear cut of a regression as it gets, swinging 5% off the mark both ways. Expect that to finally normalize this season and get him back to the 15-20 goal scorer that he usually is. Considering that there were some trade rumors surrounding him this summer, it’s for the best that the Vegas Golden Knights opted to not trade him when his value was at its’ lowest. Joel Farabee, Calgary Flames 2024-25 Stats: 11 goals, 14 assists, 25 points What’s the outlier?: SH% was 4.3% lower and on-ice SH% was 2.05% lower than career average Farabee had easily the worst season of his career in 2024-25. His time with the Philadelphia Flyers wasn’t great, with just eight goals and 11 assists in 50 games, and after he was dealt to the Calgary Flames at the end of January, his production fell off even more, with just three goals and six points in 30 games after the trade. For a player that’s regularly in the 20-goal, 35-point range, it was quite the drop off. But most of that can be attributed to some bad luck on the ice, both in terms of his own shooting ability and his teammates’. With a 7.28% SH%, he shot 4.32% lower than his career rate of 11.6%, meaning that he would have had 17 or 18 goals if he shot at his career rate. And his teammates had similarly bad luck, with Farabee’s on-ice SH% of 7.44% being 2.05% lower than his career rate of 9.49%. Morgan Frost was the focal point of the trade to Calgary anyways, but if Farabee’s luck can return to normal, expect him to be a solid buy-low inclusion in that trade for the Flames. Alexandar Georgiev, Free Agent 2024-25 Stats: 15-26-4 record, .875 Sv%, -11.72 GSAx What’s the outlier?: Sv% was .028 lower than career average Georgiev has always been a bit overvalued in the market, as he’s made a career out of playing behind some strong New York Rangers and Colorado Avalanche teams, despite his numbers that were mediocre to, at best, fine. That said, he was generally good enough to not cost his team a win. But last season was a different story, as the Avalanche were barely hanging on to a playoff spot because of Georgiev’s performance, and as a result, they quickly pivoted to trading Georgiev to the San Jose Sharks to upgrade in net with Mackenzie Blackwood. Georgiev continued to struggle in San Jose, and they opted not to re-sign him, and he still doesn’t have a contract. It’s quite possible that Georgiev has played himself out of an NHL career, but it might not entirely be deserved. At the very least, some bad luck may have been in play. While Georgiev has never played at an elite level, a career .903 Sv% is still adequate, particularly in a tandem or backup role. An .875 Sv% is a massive drop off, and nowhere close to the level where he’s normally performed at in his career. At 29, it is possible that maybe he’s already surpassed his peak and is just experiencing a natural decline, but I don’t think he’d be a horrible gamble for a team still looking for goaltending depth, especially one that has the defensive structure to insulate him and make him comfortable again. Matias Maccelli, Toronto Maple Leafs 2024-25 Stats: 8 goals, 10 assists, 18 points What’s the outlier?: SH% was 2.4% lower and on-ice SH% was 3.7% lower than career average Maccelli broke out in the NHL in 2022-23 with the Arizona Coyotes, and after his first two full seasons in the league, he had established himself as a solid playmaking winger with 38 and 40 assists, while also having some finishing ability with 11 and 17 goals. However, as Utah started to break out in their debut 2024-25 season, Maccelli went the other way with just eight goals and 18 points in 55 games. As a result, the now-Utah Mammoth sold low on him and dealt him to the Toronto Maple Leafs this summer. That trade could prove to be an excellent buy-low move for the Leafs, as a lot of Maccelli’s dip in performance came from some bad luck. His shooting percentage of 9.3% was 2.4% lower than his career rate of 11.7%, but more importantly to Maccelli’s skillset, his on-ice shooting percentage of 6.62% was 3.7% lower than his career rate of 10.32%, which explains why he lost about 30 assists last season, along with also only playing 55 games. While that regression alone will be a big change in Maccelli’s performance this season, the fact that he’s joining a Leafs team that just lost one of the best playmaking wingers in the league in Mitch Marner and are looking for a replacement on the top line with one of the best shooters in the game in Auston Matthews could bode very well for Maccelli’s career. Carter Verhaeghe, Florida Panthers 2024-25 Stats: 20 goals, 33 assists, 53 points What’s the outlier?: SH% was 5.1% lower than career average While Verhaeghe certainly won’t complain about how his season went in the grand scheme of things, what with the Florida Panthers winning the Stanley Cup and all, how his season went individually was less than ideal. His assist total held the same with 33, but his goal total dropped significantly, going from 42 and 34 the prior two seasons to just 20 in 2024-25, which also saw him slip from a 70-point player to only 53 points. There were even rumours that the Panthers were potentially going to move on from him to free up cap space as his eight-year deal with a $7 million cap hit kicked in this summer. However, trading Verhaeghe would have been a massive mistake if they followed through with it. A quick look at the numbers shows that his drop in goal-scoring was mostly due to his shooting percentage of 8.3%, which was 5.1% lower than his career rate of 13.4%. Should that swing the other way in a positive regression, he may be due for 40+ goals, and even if it just stabilizes, he’d be good for 30. He actually already saw his play bounce back during their playoff run, where he had seven goals and 23 points in 23 games while shooting 13.5%, almost right back at his career rate. That actually set a new career-high for him in playoff production in one run, and he added to his reputation as a clutch scorer with three more game-winning goals. Jeremy Swayman, Boston Bruins 2024-25 Stats: 22-29-7 record, .892 Sv%, -6.43 5v5 GSAx What’s the outlier?: Sv% was .018 lower than career average It wasn’t exactly a normal season for Jeremy Swayman, as he missed the entirety of training camp due to not signing a contract with the Boston Bruins yet. He finally signed an eight-year deal with an $8.25 million cap hit, and after missing the first game of the season, he should have been set for his first season as a full-time starter. However, like the Bruins in front of him, he struggled significantly and never really found his footing in the crease. Now, it’d be irresponsible to assume that Swayman’s performance was solely due to a .018 drop from his career save percentage of .910. After all, he didn’t get a proper preseason to get warmed up, and as we’ve seen with previous contract holdouts, the player sometimes never catches up in those situations. On top of that, the Bruins were quite bad in 2024-25, and Swayman also had to get used to a larger workload. But luck could have very easily played a role in his drop off last season, especially when you realize that he never finished lower than a .914 Sv% prior to last season, which also means his career rate was actually .917 entering last season. It was a massive outlier, and I would imagine that Swayman will return to form this season, unless it turns out that he just can’t handle 50+ games a season.
Bears make big decision amid concerning Caleb Williams reports
Second-year Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams and other starters were spectators for Chicago's preseason opener versus the Miami Dolphins on Sunday. While speaking with reporters on Wednesday, first-year Bears head coach Ben Johnson confirmed things will be different when his club hosts the Buffalo Bills for an exhibition matchup this coming Sunday evening. "Everyone's going to play," Johnson said, as shared by Courtney Cronin of ESPN. Johnson added that how many snaps Williams will take versus the Bills is "to be determined." The Bears will first host the Bills for a joint practice on Friday. Johnson came to this decision following multiple reports detailing the supposed struggles that Williams has endured throughout training camp. Most recently, Monday’s practice was allegedly "a low point for" Chicago's first-team offense and featured "Williams and receiver Rome Odunze both looking frustrated" after some failed connections. "I've been pretty consistent with the thought of reps, reps, reps are the most important thing to get [Williams] up to speed," Johnson explained. "And by the plan that we had a week ago, we were able to get him probably somewhere between 80 and 100 more reps than we would've been able to do had he played in the game. This week, it's a different schedule. Different length of time in terms of in between games and all that. And so, our plan right now is the guys that sat out last week, they will be playing this week." Those running the Bears hope that the hiring of Johnson, an advertised offensive guru, will help Williams become a top-tier quarterback after the 23-year-old won only five of 17 starts during his rookie season. However, Kevin Fishbain of The Athletic is among those who have mentioned that Williams has been responsible for a noteworthy number of inaccurate passes this summer. "I think the trust that we've been talking about from the get-go, that's really where that comes into play," Johnson added about risking the health of his starters by playing them against Buffalo. "We haven't been here with this group as a coaching staff. That trust has been earning, and we've been developing that amongst each other. It's not a one-way street. It goes both ways. And so I think that's just another step in the progression, you know?" The Bears will wrap up the preseason with a game at the Kansas City Chiefs on Aug. 22. It's unclear if Williams or other Chicago starters will see any action that Friday night.
Patriots have big Drake Maye concern surface at Vikings' joint practice
Defense ruled the day during the joint practice between the New England Patriots and Minnesota Vikings. Per Chad Graff of The Athletic, the Patriots defense did a masterful job of disrupting Vikings second-year quarterback J.J. McCarthy at Wednesday's practice. However, New England's offensive line was unable to allow Drake Maye to have enough time to finish plays. "Even with four new expected starters up front following last year’s debacle, Wednesday suggested that there will likely be some bumps ahead for this offensive line," Graff wrote. "Sure, going up against the Vikings was always going to be a difficult task. Greenard has been wrecking his own team’s practices in training camp, and everyone in New England knows how good Flores’ scheme can be. But the domination was so thorough by the Vikings’ front seven that three straight plays at one point would’ve resulted in a sack." Maye showed flashes of promise when he had time to throw downfield or was able to use his legs to buy time or scramble when pressure came. The concern is that the offensive line won't allow Maye enough time to even scramble, so he can make throws. Graff has noticed the same issues that happened on Wednesday have been a constant at training camp against the Patriots defense. With a new-look offensive line that includes first-round pick Will Campbell at left tackle, the Patriots are expected to have some bumps at training camp and in September. New England's offense probably won't look great out of the gate while the offensive line develops in offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels' scheme. If and when the offensive line improves, Maye will have a chance to show off the arm that made him the No. 3 pick in 2024. For now, the offensive line is a concern much like it was last season.
4-Time Pro Bowl Offensive Lineman Signs Contract With Minnesota Vikings
Nine-year veteran center Ryan Kelly signed a new contract with the Minnesota Vikings. Kelly, a former first-round pick and four-time Pro Bowl selection, spent the entirety of his career with the Indianapolis Colts. Ryan Kelly, Minnesota Vikings, Agree to Contract The 2024 season was a disappointing one for Ryan Kelly and the Indianapolis Colts. While the center played well when on the field, the veteran suffered a knee injury in early November that sidelined him for a decent portion of the season. While he eventually returned to the field, it was too little, too late for the Colts playoff chances. The team fell behind in the standings and had their fate sealed with a Week 17 loss to Drew Lock and the New York Giants. Ryan Kelly originally entered the NFL as a first-round pick in the 2016 NFL Draft. Selected by the Indianapolis Colts, the Alabama product immediately earned a starting job snapping the ball to then-quarterback Andrew Luck. While he started all 16 games as a rookie, injuries limited him to just 19 games over the next two seasons. While he struggled to stay on the field, the Colts decided to activate the fifth-year option on his contract. This proved to be a wise move, as Kelly responded with the best seasons of his career. From 2019 to 2021, the Alabama product made three consecutive Pro Bowls while providing a steadying presence in the middle of the offensive line for Jacoby Brissett, Philip Rivers, and Carson Wentz. After the team as a whole disappointed in 2022, Kelly returned to the Pro Bowl in 2023 while helping lead the team to an unexpected playoff birth. Since signing his rookie contract, Ryan Kelly has started and appeared in 120 games. While on the field, he has made four Pro Bowl teams and earned Second-Team All-Pro honors for him impressive work in the 2020 season.
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