Oilers Prediction: Vladimir Tarasenko Signs One-Year Value Deal

Tarasenko could be following a similar strategy.

Rather than rushing into a contract, the 34-year-old may be holding out for the right opportunity—a chance to join a legitimate Stanley Cup contender where he believes he can make one more deep playoff run. After winning a championship in 2019 and spending the latter stages of his career chasing another, there’s little reason for Tarasenko to sign with a rebuilding or middle-of-the-pack club simply for a larger payday.

Edmonton checks virtually every box. The Oilers are coming off another deep playoff run, feature Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, and remain firmly in their championship window.

Why Edmonton Makes Sense

Even at this stage of his career, Tarasenko remains an effective offensive player. Last season he recorded 23 goals and 24 assists in 75 games, proving he can still provide quality secondary scoring. That’s exactly what Edmonton has been searching for.

The Oilers possess arguably the NHL’s best top-end talent, but adding another proven finisher would reduce the offensive burden on their stars and strengthen their middle six. Tarasenko has built his reputation on finding open ice and owning one of hockey’s most dangerous wrist shots. Playing alongside elite playmakers could help him rediscover another productive season.

He also brings more than 120 games of playoff experience and a Stanley Cup ring, giving Edmonton another veteran who understands what it takes to win when the games matter most.

Prediction

My prediction is that the Oilers will sign Tarasenko to a one-year contract worth between $1.5 million and $2 million, similar to the value deal they gave Roslovic after patiently waiting for the market to settle last offseason.

The reasoning is straightforward. Tarasenko is one of the best unrestricted free agents still available, yet he has shown little urgency to sign despite receiving permission to negotiate early after changing agents. At 34 years old and already owning a Stanley Cup ring, he’s likely prioritizing the chance to join a legitimate contender over securing the highest-paying contract. Edmonton, meanwhile, has already proven it’s willing to wait out the market to land experienced veterans on bargain deals, making the Oilers a logical fit.

A one-year deal benefits both sides. Tarasenko gets another opportunity to compete for a Stanley Cup while rebuilding his value for next summer, and the Oilers add a proven 20-goal scorer with championship experience without sacrificing long-term cap flexibility. If the market continues to cool, don’t be surprised if Edmonton once again makes a late-offseason signing that turns into one of the summer’s biggest steals.