A three-time Hart trophy winner vs. a three-time Selke trophy winner is the marquee matchup up front with Connor McDavid vs. Aleksander Barkov. Neither coach will shy away from this matchup, as both centers are used to facing the other team’s top players. It is interesting to note how McDavid has more points, but also a better GA/60 at 2.8 to Barkov’s 3.2.

Losing Zach Hyman is a big blow for the Oilers, although Corey Perry has had a great playoff and is tied for the Oilers’ lead in goals with seven. Perry won’t play every 5×5 shift with McDavid, as other wingers will get a few shifts.

Evan Rodrigues killed the Oilers last year with four goals in the Cup Final.

This is the matchup I want to see. Leon Draisaitl and Evander Kane are strong and physical, and so are Sam Bennett and Matthew Tkachuk. Kane and Tkachuk lining up side-by-side on faceoffs could be highly entertaining. Kasperi Kapanen has been very noticeable since getting into the lineup in Game 4 of the Vegas series. He’s been quite physical, and if we see these two lines go head-to-head often, we should witness some big hits and some intense shifts.

Draisaitl played injured last year in the final two rounds, and it showed. He scored 24 points in the first two rounds, but had only seven points, all assists, in the final two rounds as his shooting was limited. He, like Kare, is fully healthy this year, and I’d expect him to be much more of a factor in the Cup Final.

The Panthers’ third line has been outstanding. They are tied for the team lead with 12 points each at 5×5. They’ve crushed teams, especially Toronto and Tampa Bay. I have Adam Henrique’s line listed as the third line, because they’ve played more thus far, but if I were Kris Knoblauch, I’d play Mattias Janmark’s line against Anton Lundell’s line. Janmark and Vasily Podkolzin are arguably the Oilers’ two most responsible defensive forwards. They rarely make defensive mistakes, and they are quicker than Henrique and Frederic. The Oilers need to slow this line down and force Florida’s top two lines to carry more of the load offensively.

Tomas Nosek and Jonah Gadjovich have outscored the opponents 5-0 thus far. Gadjovich has scored some timely goals for the Panthers thus far. This Oilers trio has performed very well when they play together and has controlled time of possession in most of their games. However, we could see Henrique’s line against Nosek’s line, at least on home ice, to start the series.

The forward groups are pretty even. I’d give a slight edge to Edmonton, because of McDavid and Draisaitl. The Oilers’ 3rd-10th forwards have scored 41 goals in the playoffs, while Florida’s 3rd-12th forwards (in points) have scored 35.

DEFENCE…

EDM 1st pair:

Ekholm: 14:55 and 0-1–1                      Bouchard: 18:46 and 3-8-11
2-0 GF-GA and 5-7 SF-SA                     22-14 GF-GA and 167-118 SF-SA

FLA 1st pair:

Forsling: 17:28 and 1-3-4                       Ekblad: 16:23 and 3-5-8
18-12 GF-GA and 166-144 SF-SA          14-10 GF-GA and 132-94 SF-SA

Mattias Ekholm has only played one game, and he played just under 15 minutes at 5×5, so we’ll see if he’s ready for top-pair minutes in Game 1. Evan Bouchard has had another outstanding playoff, and as good as Gustav Forsling is, it is hard to argue that Bouchard is the best overall D-man in this series. He produces the most, and he has excellent possession metrics. Last year, in head-to-head play, Connor McDavid outscored Aaron Ekblad 5-0 at 5×5 and Forsling 4-2. Will we see that matchup as often this year, as they each played over 70 minutes against him, or will Mikkola and Jones get more than the 30 minutes the Brandon Montour pair got against McDavid last year?

EDM 2nd pair:

Nurse: 20:20 and 1-3-4                            Kulak: 20:01 and 1-3-4
14-15 GF-GA and 150-149 SF-SA           14-8 GF-GA and 149-112 SF-SA

FLA 2nd pair:

Mikkola: 16:30 and 3-2-5                       Jones: 17:29 and 2-1-3
15-8 GF-GA and 96-88 SF-SA                17-8 GF-GA and 116-108 SF-SA

Niko Mikkola and Seth Jones have been Florida’s best pair. Mikkola has been excellent, and their combined size and length make them a formidable pair. Darnell Nurse and Brett Kulak were outstanding in Game 5 vs. Dallas, their first game where they played almost exclusively with each other due to Ekholm’s return. They outshot Dallas 12-1, with the only shot coming on the Jason Robertson goal, after a rare blatant giveaway from Kulak. Nurse and Kulak are both excellent skaters, and they’ve played the most minutes 5×5 of all Oilers D-men. Defence coach Paul Coffey trusts them a lot, and when Nurse plays a simple game, he’s very effective.

Nurse wasn’t healthy during last year’s Cup Final, and the entire playoffs as a whole. He only averaged 15 minutes/game in the Final. He’s healthy this year and he and Kulak will play an important role. The Jones/Mikkola pairing has been together all playoffs and has been more consistent.

EDM 3rd pair:

Walman: 16:43 and 1-4-5                         Klingberg: 17:43 and 0-3-3
16-9 GF-GA and 105-67 SF-SA               10-5 GF-GA and 122-108 SF-SA

FLA 3rd pair:

Schmidt: 13:19 and 2-4-6                        Kulikov: 14:12 and 1-3-4
15-8 GF-GA and 106-93 SF-SA               9-8 GF-GA and 90-84 SF-SA

Jake Walman and John Klingberg have been excellent for Edmonton. Walman is tied for the lead in +/-, and his next blocked shot will put him in the lead for shot blocks. Klingberg looked rusty and slow at times when he first joined the Oilers, but since returning from injury for Game 2 vs. LA, he’s been very good. He has his lateral mobility back, his best asset, and he creates time and space because of it. How all three Oilers D pairs handle Florida’s forecheck could decide the series. If they can move pucks up quickly and trap their forwards deep, the Oilers could have a lot of odd-man rush chances.

Dmitri Kulikov and Nate Schmidt have also played well. Kulikov is their most physical defender, and he’s not afraid to take healthy, hard runs at players. The Oilers will need to keep their heads up when he’s on the ice. He can be a bit overly aggressive and times and get out of position, and if that happens, the Oilers need to make him pay. Last year, Oliver Ekman-Larsson had a 7-1 GF-GA in the playoffs. He was excellent against Edmonton, and the Panthers will need their third pair to be solid again. It will be difficult to match OEL’s success, though.

With Ekholm healthy, the Oilers have the best group of six puck movers.

GOALTENDING…

Sergei Bobrovsky and Stuart Skinner will go head-to-head in the Cup Final for the second consecutive season. Last year, Skinner allowed 16 goals on 175 shots for a .909Sv% and 2.32 GAA. Bobrovsky allowed 17 goals on 168 shots for a .899Sv% and 2.67 GAA. Skinner was solid in his first Cup Final, while Bobrovsky was as well. In the four Panthers wins, he only allowed five goals. When he was on, he was the difference, especially in Games 1 and 3.

Skinner has been excellent since returning to the net in round two vs. Vegas. In eight games, he is 6-2 with a .931Sv% and 1.73 GAA. He doesn’t need to be that dynamic. It would be very difficult to maintain those numbers. He just needs to be consistent. (I have a deep dive goalie scouting report from Kevin Woodley coming out later today.)

Bobrovsky has the better career numbers. Skinner’s been better the past two series. Who will prevail?

WRAP UP…

This series should be very competitive. There isn’t much separating the teams, but I do think some forget the Oilers outplayed Florida in Games 1 and 3 last year, but lost. They were the better team in five of the seven games, but Bobrovsky stole two games.

Edmonton is the quicker team, and if they continue to play like they did vs. Vegas and Dallas, they have a great chance to win.

This will be the toughest series to date for both teams, and it has the potential to be a classic.