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Ottawa Senator Dylan Cozen’s 2025-26 Point Projection
Main Photo Credit: Marc DesRosiers-Imagn Images

Next up in our point projection work is one of the newer Ottawa Senators Dylan Cozens. We’ve already covered Tim Stutzle and Ridly Greig, and plenty more where that come from for us. Cozens is a bit of a sniper and 2025-26 will prove that for the 24-year-old in the Canadian National Capital. When Cozens came over from the Buffalo Sabres during the 2025 trade deadline season, the chemistry with Drake Batherson was instant. Now with a summer of hitting the gym, and ready for a fresh, new season, Cozens is poised to breakout this season. Let’s dig-in as to why.

Dylan Cozen’s 2025-26 Total Point Projection

The Workhorse from Whitehorse did struggle somewhat in 2024-25. Therefore, he should be poised for a bounce back. 16 goals and 31 assists for 47 points in 82 games split between Buffalo and Ottawa was far removed from his career best. That came in just his second full-NHL season. In that campaign he notched 31 goals, 37 assists, for 68 points in 82 games. In contrast, there were some positives in his overall development and maturation as an NHL professional. He took 1160 faceoffs and won over 50% of them. Also, he registered 205 hits. Each of those stats were career marks. Therefore, from an all-around perspective, he should be beginning to hit his stride.

Let’s Check Out his Offensive Statistical Breakdown

There is one noteworthy point on his 2024-25 statistical breakdown. It is actually something that tends to plague the Sens offence as a whole. This point is a lack of offensive efficiency. Moreover, playing with a someone of Batherson’s playmaking abilities, should help Cozens in this department. Cozens total shooting percentage was only 8.5% for 2024-25. That’s well off his top standard of 14.7%, in the year he had 31 tucks in Western New York. Even a modest rebound, along with higher propensity for shot taking, will drive up his point total.

It is interesting, despite his success with Ottawa to end the year, there was a troubling stat. He managed 16 points in 21 games for Ottawa, but his Corsi rating was not up to snuff. In 5v5 play, he had a -4.3 Corsi-for percent relative as a Senator in those 21 contests. You’d think that would balance out over a full season. It also shows a strong work ethic. In a sort-of bend-don’t-break situation, he gives up too many opportunities to the opposition. In contrast, he’s not actually giving up a lot. However, a playing a regular second-line shift this upcoming year, will help normalize those metrics.

Discussing the Sens Team Dynamic

It will be interesting to see two separate ideas in terms of Cozens’ utilization. This will end up as a couple points that could significantly drive his bottom line. The top power play unit is pretty full. Also, guys like Tim Stutzle, Brady Tkachuk, and Jake Sanderson tend to be minute munchers on the man advantage. Now, you could argue that is the perfect spot to slot in Cozens and Batherson in with that aforementioned trio.

Given the plausible fit, it is very likely that is the Sens top power play unit for 2025-26. However, Cozens and Batherson might be better suited for the second unit and help to drive the play there. With names like Fabian Zetterlund and Claude Giroux, guys who could play 5v5 time with Tkachuk and Stutzle, you might want to keep that synchronicity on the top unit. In any case, it will be a fluid dynamic. Furthermore, the main takeaway is that Cozens, and Batherson for that matter as well, will get a regular shift on the power play. That will positively benefit Dylan Cozens‘ 2025-26 point projection.

Which Power Play Unit Does Cozens Play On?

That also raises the question, of who their third linemate ends up being. It does seem like a foregone conclusion Cozens and Batherson are a 1-2 punch from the second line. In contrast, just who will be the third cog in the wheel of offence? Will it be a scorer and create a focus on scoring off the rush and beating their opponents offensively? Conversely, would someone who will help them grind out games and generate off the cycle be the better fit?

David Perron was there last year and does a lot of things well that would benefit the line. However, you can’t expect a huge offensive season. There are other options, whether it is Nick Cousins, Lars Eller, or even an up-and-comer like Stephen Halliday. The advantage of playing with one of the veterans, is that the defensive responsibly will be handled better. Head coach Travis Green will be focused on finding chemistry, with this and all the lines. Therefore, in the end, the line will produce, and Cozens will be a big part of it.

Now to Get Down to Business

Playing a lot with Batherson, a guy who’s averaged over 65 points a season that past three campaigns, could mean big things. It is interesting, that they both have the same career-high 68 points. To end the year, when Cozens was hot, he was only playing 16:37 a game for Ottawa. Furthermore, he also throws a lot of hits. That means that there really is more to his game than can easily through basic statistics. Cozens’ shot rate didn’t change tangibly in Ottawa when compared to Buffalo. With Batherson distributing, we think Cozens will tend to the higher side of his shooting percentage.

He’s a guy that can take around 200 shots a year, so any above that would drive his goal totals. His shot percentage and average ice time will further determine this output. He’s a career 10% shooter in an average of 16:25 of ice time. We think he tends to the upper side of all these mean values. In addition, his assist total will depend on his linemates and power play utilization. For instance, Batherson had 12.6 expected goals on 5v5 in 82 games last year, and Perron had 6.5 xG in 43 games. Interestingly enough, very similar to Cozens’ 12.4 xG in 82 contests. Therefore, they should produce assists at a similar rate if playing as a line combination. We will say, if Cozens’ assists might be lessened if he is scoring more, but that will be likely offset by the fact he is producing more goals overall. In any sense, he has established a baseline of assists around 30, having ranged between 25 and 37 in four full NHL seasons. We like him to push the limits of this amount.

In the end, we like Cozens landing between 25-30 goals. Additionally, we see him notching over 30 assists, up to somewhere around his career high of 37. This lands us around 55 to 67 total points. However, if we are doing the over-under, we like the over of the midpoint. So, call it over the 61.5.

This article first appeared on Last Word On Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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