Panthers vs. Capitals: Stanley Cup playoff series preview and pick

Florida Panthers: 1^st Atlantic Division, Presidents’ Trophy, 122 points
Washington Capitals: Wild Card #2, 100 points

Schedule

Tuesday, May 3, 7:30 p.m.: Washington at Florida (Bally Sports Florida, ESPN2, SN360, TVA Sports)
Thursday, May 5, 7:30 p.m.: Washington at Florida (Bally Sports Florida, TBS, SN360, TVA Sports)
Saturday, May 7, 1 p.m.: Florida at Washington (Bally Sports Florida, ESPN, Sportsnet, TVA Sports)
Monday, May 9, 7 p.m.: Florida at Washington (Bally Sports Florida, TBS, SN1, TVA Sports)
*Wednesday, May 11, TBD: Washington at Florida (TBD)
*Thursday, May 12, TBD: Florida at Washington (TBD)
*Saturday, May 14, TBD:  Washington at Florida (TBD)

The Skinny

It’s a playoff matchup as old as time. The less experienced team coming off a red-hot regular season up against the veteran team on its last limbs. The Panthers may have made the postseason for the third straight season (including a play-in loss in 2020), but they still haven’t won a series since their run to the Stanley Cup final in 1995-96. This could be the year to do it, as they face off against a Caps team that is a shadow of its former self, looking to win its first playoff series since winning the Stanley Cup in 2018. As the Cup contender in this scenario, all the pressure is on the Panthers, especially with their playoff win drought, while the Caps are the underdog that knows how to win.

Head to Head

Florida 2-1-0

Washington 1-1-1

You should probably take these regular season games with a grain of salt because all three took place in November. We’re looking at completely different teams now at this point of the season. If there is one big takeaway from this season series, it’s that all three games were close, one-goal games. The Panthers won both of their games 5-4, one coming in OT, while the Caps won their game 4-3. They were also relatively high-scoring, so that might be a sign of things to come as well.

Top Five Scorers

Florida

Jonathan Huberdeau: 115 points
Alexander Barkov: 88 points (67 GP)
Sam Reinhart: 82 points
Anthony Duclair: 58 points
Aaron Ekblad: 57 points (61 GP)

Washington

Alexander Ovechkin: 90 points
Evgeny Kuznetsov: 78 points
John Carlson: 71 points
Tom Wilson: 52 points
Conor Sheary: 43 points

X-Factor

Considering the mismatch up front, the biggest advantage for the Panthers is going to be that third line. Obviously, Jonathan Huberdeau and Aleksander Barkov will be more than capable of holding their own and likely winning the matchups against the Capitals’ top six, but having 82-point-scorer in Sam Reinhart against a relatively weak Capitals bottom six will be a huge advantage for the Panthers. It will be key for him to really excel in that matchup and blow the series wide open.

As for the Capitals, their physicality and experience are going to be their biggest advantages in this series. The Panthers are no slouches in that category, but making sure they have no room to generate offense and making their lives harder in the process might be where the Capitals find an edge. They have to walk the line carefully though, because if they get too dirty (I’m looking at you Tom Wilson) they run the risk of giving the Panthers power-play opportunities.

Offense

It’s crazy to say that the Caps aren’t even close to the offensive levels of their opponents when they averaged 3.29 goals this season, but against the Panthers, that’s the case. 

The Panthers not only average more than four goals a game, they set a cap era record for most goals in a season. They boast high-end scoring talent on all three lines, something that most teams will struggle to match. On the top line, they have two-way phenom Aleksander Barkov centering deadline addition Claude Giroux and last year’s biggest breakout Carter Verhaeghe. On the second line, it’s Hart candidate Jonathan Huberdeau, with two more of the Panthers’ hidden gems from last season in Sam Bennett and Anthony Duclair. If you thought that was scary, the third line boasts Sam Reinhart, one of this year’s biggest breakout players, with underrated rookie center Anton Lundell and Mason Marchment, who's been scoring at a rate nobody expected him to. And if they can’t get that to work, they can also run out some combination of Patric Hornqvist, Ryan Lomberg, Joe Thornton, Eetu Luostarinen, Noel Acciari, among many others, to make for a good fourth line as well.

The Caps don’t have quite the same levels of depth as the Panthers do. Obviously, you have Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Tom Wilson, T.J. Oshie, and Anthony Mantha to make up a pretty good top six, but beyond that there aren’t a lot of needle movers to match up against the Panthers’ forward group. And even with that top six, you’re asking for a lot from a group that’s best days are in the rearview mirror. It’s a pretty uneven matchup, even for a Presidents’ Trophy winner versus an eight seed, so if the Caps are going to win with this forward group, it’s going to be by feeding Ovechkin goals and being the more physical team.

Defense

On the blueline it’s not as much of a mismatch between the Panthers and Caps, as both teams have relied more on their offense than their defense. The Panthers certainly boast more of the elite talent and do a better job of defending by keeping the puck in the offensive zone. Aaron Ekblad has turned himself into one of the better defenders in the league these past few seasons, and it’s helped that he’s had MacKenzie Weegar to work with, who’s come out of nowhere to also become one of the better defenders in the league. Gustav Forsling is went from being a replacement-level defender in Chicago to a strong top-four defender in Florida, albeit in much easier minutes than Ekblad or Weegar. After that, the depth drops off a little bit, with Radko Gudas and Ben Chiarot being your prototypical physical playoff defenseman types. Brandon Montour has turned around his career as well after starting to look like a bust in Anaheim and Buffalo.

The Caps are a bit more well rounded on the back end, even if they don’t have anyone quite at the level as Florida’s top pair. John Carlson has been a strong offensive defenseman for several seasons now, while the second defense pair of Dmitry Orlov and Nick Jensen is a solid shutdown unit for the team. Justin Schultz and Trevor van Riemsdyk round out the depth very well, while Martin Fehervary has found himself a home next to Carlson. It’s certainly more evenly matched between the two teams here, but the Caps defense will be in for a bit more of an adventure up against the Panthers forward core.

Goaltending

A lot of the focus will be on both of the team’s stars in this series, but the biggest difference maker will be which team’s goaltender shows up this series. The Capitals and Panthers both had inconsistencies in that department this season, as they ranked 18th and 19th, respectively in 5-on-5 save percentage, with only one playoff team ranking lower than them in the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Sergei Bobrovsky had his best season since signing with the Panthers, but at just a .913 save percentage, it still isn’t the kind of goaltending you want in the playoffs. Rookie goalie Spencer Knight had the expected inconsistencies in his first NHL season, including a stint in the minors, so he’s more of a wild card in net at this point in his career. He did finish the season hot, however, winning NHL rookie of the month for April.

For the Caps, it hasn’t been all that good in net since they moved on from Braden Holtby in 2020. Ilya Samsonov was expected to take the reigns, but has struggled mightily, especially this season with a .896 save percentage. That’s led the Caps to rely on Vitek Vanecek more, but he's posted just a .908 save percentage. He got the start in Game 1 last season before getting injured, so neither him or Samsonov have much experience in the playoffs.

Injuries

The Panthers have a couple question marks health wise on the blue line, particularly with Ekblad, who’s been out since March 18. There’s a chance he could be back for Game 1, as he practiced on Sunday, but it’s not confirmed as of yet. The Caps were also missing a big name, as Ovechkin has been day-to-day since suffering an upper-body injury last week against Toronto, but he’s almost guaranteed to suit up for Game 1.

Intangibles

It seems like the Panthers’ biggest enemy in this series might just be themselves. They’re staring a 24-year drought in the mirror going into this series, and as the Presidents’ Trophy winners, all the pressure is on them not to be upset in the first round. The Caps are the underdogs, but that’s not to say they don’t have any pressure either. With their big stars on the wrong side of 30, each year could be the last chance at another Cup with this group.

CONSENSUS SERIES PREDICTION

Florida will feel some pressure, but this team is simply too deep to fail, especially against a Caps team with major question marks in net. The tough, experienced Caps won’t go quietly, however. 

Panthers in 6.