The Edmonton Oilers were in complete control of Game 1 for 40 minutes. They were the better team and deserved a 3-1 lead, but then they allowed three power-play goals in just over five minutes, lost their lead and never recovered.
It was a stunning turnaround. The Oilers allowed Dallas back in the game by taking too many penalties. Corey Perry can’t take an offensive zone high-sticking penalty, especially so soon after Dallas made it 3-2. The crowd was buzzing, the Stars had momentum for the first time all night, and Perry gave them a chance to tie the game. And they did.
Then Evander Kane got his stick up on Matt Duchene. It was a clear penalty. And 11 seconds later, Duchene made it 4-3.
The Oilers went from dominating to trailing and never recovered.
“We give up three goals in a row on the kill and it just kills the momentum and then you are chasing the game,” said Draisaitl. “We have to be an awful lot more mature than that. “We have to stay out of the box, but we have to come up with a kill. I’m not on it, so who am I to say something, but that is a fact. And then you have a chance to tie the game up on the power play, and we weren’t any better.”
Edmonton was the better team 5×5, however, Dallas was much better and more productive on special teams, and that was the difference in the game. Last year, the Oilers won the series, partly because they crushed the Stars on special teams. The Oilers didn’t allow a power-play goal, killing all 14 Dallas power plays. And the Oilers were 36.4% on the PP, scoring four goals on 11 chances. The Oilers scored two PP goals in Game 5 and again in Game 6. They won those games by scores of 3-1 and 2-1, and it is fair to say their special teams were a major factor in two of their victories.
Dallas already has one game in the books due to special teams. The Oilers liked their 5×5 game, while Dallas didn’t like theirs.
“When you win a game without your A game, it feels great,” said Matt Duchene. “We were too passive, especially when you are going against two great players. They played well, and we can be better.”
The Stars’ special teams have been great so far in these playoffs. It has won them two series.
In round one against Colorado, their PP was 30.4% and the PK was 86.4%. They scored seven PP goals while only allowing three. At 5x,5 Colorado outscored Dallas 14-12.
In round two against Winnipeg, the PP was 31.3% (5 of 16) and the PK was 85.7% (3 of 21). The teams were even at 5×5 with eight goals each.
Dallas has been outscored 24-22 at 5×5 in the playoffs, but on special teams, they are outscoring teams 15-7.
The Oilers are the opposite. They’ve outscored teams 31-23 at 5×5 but have been outscored 14-7 on special teams.
The Oilers won’t win this series if they lose the special team battle too often.
The penalty kill needs to be better, but so does the power play. As Draisaitl said, the Oilers’ power play had a chance to tie the game midway through the third period and didn’t get the job done. They didn’t even register a shot on goal. The PP needs to wake up. Yes, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored a PP goal in the first period, but when the other team’s PP is rolling, you need to match it. The Oilers have more than enough talent on the power play to produce. It didn’t happen last night.
But the big issue was a lack of discipline, an inability to kill a penalty and not getting a save from Stuart Skinner on one of Dallas’ third-period power plays.
The Oilers have proven they can rebound from a bad outing or a series deficit. They’ve lost the first games to LA, Calgary and Vancouver and came back to win, however, by losing Game 1 they’ve made their chances of winning the series much harder.
In NHL history when the road team loses the first game, they are 123-368 (.251W%) all time. The Oilers already beat those odds once this year and became the 36th team in NHL history to trail 2-0 on the road and come back and win the series. Prior to their victory in round one teams were 35-270 when trailing 2-0 on the road.
The good news for the Oilers is that in the Conference Finals, the team that loses Game 1 has come back to win the series more than the aforementioned record above.
Teams that lose Game 1 of the Conference Final on the road have a record of 29-77 (.272). But since the 2005 lockout, teams who lose Game 1 on the road are 10-11 (.476).
The Oilers had a solid 40 minutes, but a dreadful final 20. They find ways to make things harder than they should be. After dispatching Vegas in five games, and really controlling most of that series, the way Game 1 vs. Dallas started it looked like that would continue. But it didn’t.
The road to the Stanley Cup is rarely smooth. The Oilers hit a big pothole in the third period, but they need a quick realignment and hope their special teams improve.
They need more discipline, a more efficient penalty kill, and they will need a timely save in Game 2.
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