Penguins Trade Deadline Predictions: Karlsson, Rakell, and Surprises

LAS VEGAS — The Pittsburgh Penguins will hunker down in Las Vegas on NHL trade deadline day, the hockey holiday in which casual fans suddenly pay attention to hockey players from all corners who could bring their team a superstar or a first-round pick, while those same fans and media fling opinions like mud in the monkey cage.

It is an epic day, even when the trades trickle onto the national rights holder trade boards.

As of Thursday, many of the Penguins were bracing for impact. They remain just a few percentage points ahead of the Buffalo Sabres for last place in the Eastern Conference. The team jettisoned Michael Bunting to Nashville in something akin to a hockey trade as they acquired Tommy Novak and 35-year-old defenseman Luke Schenn.

As of typing, all other Penguins players are still on the roster and in uniform.

Of course, the trade Wednesday night also added a little more drama. Will he stay, or will Schenn go? While general manager Kyle Dubas was clear that he expected Schenn to provide leadership and physical traits on the ice, the simple fact that a 35-year-old defenseman just doesn’t fit into the Penguins long-term plans.

Penguins Trade Deadline Predictions

Luke Schenn

Prediction: Stay

Schenn will stay. Dubas snagged Schenn away from the clutches of his former employer, the Toronto Maple Leafs. Unless a team makes an offer that is too good, Dubas can let Schenn settle in and move him next season when he’ll be a pending unrestricted free agent.

Analysis: The intention to keep Schenn is still mindboggling. Perhaps a bigger picture will become clearer (It’s not a schooner … it’s a sailboat) with additional trades. The team’s need for a 35-year-old leader should be minimal, and it seems far too late to upgrade the awful defense. We’ll see where this goes.

Rickard Rakell

Prediction: Trade

Trade candidates Miko Rantanen and Brad Marchand could be gumming up the works and something might not get done in time. Or Dubas might pause, opting to keep Rakell for the moment until he has a clearer picture of the rebuild.

However, if Toronto is interested in Rantanen but doesn’t get it done, there would be no better consolation prize than Rakell. Dallas, Winnipeg, LA, or a bubble team with a sharp center could make it happen.

His high output, low salary, and career arc make him a safe choice. Rakell is about to notch his third career 30-goal season. He’s scored 29 goals and registered 53 points in 63 games with some of the best hockey of his career.

Analysis: It will be a hard decision and one that will not make the locker room happy, but Rakell should command a feast in return. A mere first-round pick would be a wildly disappointing haul, as lesser players have already commanded that entry fee. No, Rakell should command a top-round pick and some combination of a couple of prospects and NHL players.

Erik Karlsson:

Prediction: Stay

If there was a deal to be made, it seems it would have been done. His play for the Penguins since returning from the outstanding show for Team Sweden has been the polar opposite. The market for Karlsson is small, so the few GMs who see a potential to saddle one of the great thoroughbreds of the NHL may be in a bind until their coffers are refilled on July 1.

Analysis: The few possible landing spots for Karlsson will also ask for salary retention. The Penguins only have one spot left until July 1, so using it on Karlsson would prohibit them from moving one of the more unmovable contracts (Tristan Jarry, Ryan Graves) or selling cap space for assets.

Ergo, it would also benefit the Penguins to wait.

Karlsson would do a world of good for bubble teams such as Columbus and Detroit because he would be relied upon as a focal point, but they don’t seem interested.

Noel Accairi

Prediction: Traded

“Cookie” is a blood and guts player who kills penalties and defends leads. However, the toll of those hard miles is catching up with him, and the Penguins have an abundance of forwards, or will have an abundance next season, who need that roster spot.

Analysis: Acciari’s value is not what it was two years ago when Dubas acquired him as part of a larger package to add some toughness to the Toronto Maple Leafs lineup. The Penguins should not expect much of a return.

Matt Grzelcyk

Prediction: Traded

It seems like a no-brainer. Grzelcyk is a pending 32-year-old free agent who has had a solid season. This should make him valuable to a team that needs some puck movement and power-play help.

This season, Grzelcyk has already set a career-high with 30 points (1-29-30).

Analysis: The New Jersey Devils paid up Thursday for steady LHD Brian Dumoulin, parting with a second-rounder and a prospect. Grzelcyk is easily worth a third-rounder if not a second.

Tristan Jarry/Ryan Graves

Prediction: Staying

It’s just too tough to trade away either player. The Penguins will need more salary retention spots, which won’t arrive until July 1.

Anthony Beauvillier

Prediction: Staying

Beauvillier will be a free agent after this season, but his value to the team exceeds his value on the market. He’s a speedy, versatile, and defensively responsible winger, but he probably wouldn’t command more than a mid-round pick.

Analysis: A third-rounder would be a yes. Anything less is not worth it. The Penguins would be better off to re-sign Beauvillier.

Surprises

Kevin Hayes: It would not be surprising for a bubble team to make a small addition, spending modestly to acquire Hayes, who has played very good hockey for two months running. With some poetic justice, perhaps the Columbus Blue Jackets would bolster their playoff run, and Hayes would be able to honor his best friend, Johnny Gaudreau.

Moving Hayes would also open a lineup spot for Novak.

Blake Lizotte: A team might have a few extra beans in the can and want to bolster the bottom of their lineup. Lizotte has been impressive this season, but a zippy fourth-liner on a bad team is like a good closer on a bad baseball team. It would seem unlikely but not implausible.

Danton Heinen: A team that needs a backup middle-six winger who can chip in some offense could do worse than Heinen. It wouldn’t be too expensive, and the Penguins could fill the roster spot with a prospect.