Pontus Holmberg: The penalty drawing Swiss (Swedish) Army Knife

Pontus Holmberg is in many ways the ideal bottom six player. A big part of that is his price tag at $800k and the fact that the Leafs have been getting a lot more value out of him than that. Surplus value is king in the NHL and aside from Matthew Knies’ entry level contract, and in the Leafs goal, it was difficult to find examples of it on the Toronto Maple Leafs roster. Pontus Holmberg was some of that value and through his versatility and ability to line up at centre, on the wing, penalty kill, move up to the second line as required, and of course, draw a ton of penalties, Holmberg was a bright spot on the Leafs roster and was seemingly a favourite of head coach Craig Berube in the 2024-25 season.

Time flies, and while the purpose here is to reflect on what went right and wrong for Holmberg in 2024-25, it’s important to now look at him through the lens of being a three year NHL veteran, not the late round pick who panned out better than expected. He’s 26 now, and while still a restricted free agent, a lot of consideration needs to be given to what is the right price to pay for him to continue being a Leaf in the 2025-26 season.

How the year went

Holmberg found a bit of a champion of his play in Berube. Some circumstances favoured Holmberg getting a look, as after a less than stellar training camp, Holmberg certainly benefited from Calle Jarnkrok’s injury helping keep him in the lineup. The Leafs seemingly taking a step back defensively in their top nine by continuing with Domi at centre seemed to open the door for Holmberg to be a defensively reliable forward who could be peppered throughout the lineup wherever it seemed like a responsible F3 could make a difference.

Holmberg would see some usage on the penalty kill in 2024-25, but was the 6th most utilized forward when killing penalties, and 9th highest when it came to average time on ice shorthanded. He established that he was someone that Berube could go to but wasn’t his first choice in many situations for the role. In a lot of ways that sums up the Leafs overall usage of Holmberg in 2024-25, he was someone they could go to, but never the first choice.

Holmberg’s play did not evolve past the bottom on the lineup card and 2024-25 still included a number of healthy scratches, including one healthy scratch in the playoffs. While Holmberg generally delivered on what you’d ask of him, there wasn’t an offensive surge nor was there a significant leap forward defensively, instead there was just good play that didn’t evolve when he was placed in more difficult situations or when injuries required that he take on a bigger role. There were times throughout the year when Holmberg was a frustrating presence in the lineup because he didn’t seem to bring much to the table, but in hindsight there are two big things that made him a worthwhile bottom-sixer.

The first thing that Holmberg did well feeds directly into the second thing. Holmberg, as a fourth liner (and somewhat as a third liner too) is a very capable puck carrier against the opposition’s bottom roster players. He was arguably the best puck transporter in the Leafs bottom six and while he infrequently turned that possession into scoring chances, he was a worthwhile holdover from the Sheldon Keefe shot suppressing bottom six approach. His movement throughout the lineup might not show his numbers as strongly when looking at his Corsi Against, but his Goals Against/60, and his Expected Goals Against/60 were amongst the lowest on the Maple Leafs, mirroring other Leafs fourth liners, but with the realization that Holmberg frequently took on tougher minutes than Ryan Reaves.

Another area where Holmberg’s puck control benefited the Leafs was in his ability to draw penalties. Holmberg finished 17th in the NHL with 28, but of those 17 skaters, only Nico Hischier, Tim Stutzle, and Nazem Kadri had a better penalty differential than Holmberg’s +17 drawn to taken ratio. Of players with 700 minutes played in 2024-25, only Garnet Hathaway and AJ Greer drew more penalties per 60 than Holmberg, but both of those players were taking a far greater number of penalties, making Holmberg somewhat of a depth standout in that regard.

While Holmberg had previously drawn more penalties than he took, and for a bottom six player was drawing more penalties than you’d expect, it wasn’t a standout number in previous seasons like it was in 2024-25, so it begs the question of if this is going to be an ongoing trend for Holmberg and is a value that the Leafs can continually expect from him. If you consider that Holmberg netted the Leafs 17 power plays and Leafs power play converted 25 percent of the time, that is an additional four goals you can at least partially credit Holmberg for. Looking at his offensive numbers with that aspect attached adds a bit more appeal to keeping Holmberg in the lineup.

Statistical profile

One of things not listed in the on-ice numbers above that stands out with Holmberg is his unsustainably low 3.45% shooting percentage. His previous 15%, and 13% years might have been unsustainably high, but the numbers that yielded Holmberg just seven goals (including a couple of empty netters) in 2024-25 isn’t likely to continue. Looking at shots, individual expected goals, and high danger shot attempts, Holmberg was getting the same number of looks as previous years and they just weren’t going in.

Holmberg’s linemates throughout 2024-25 were a huge variable in his performance and his two most frequent linemates capture his different utilization.

Holmberg’s most frequent linemate was William Nylander at 255 minutes, which accounts for around 32% of Holmberg’s 5v5 time on ice. His role as Nylander’s defensive zone conscience coincides with either when Holmberg was playing up in the line with Tavares and Nylander (he also had 182 minutes with Tavares) or when Nylander was used to drive his own line and would see Holmberg take on centre responsibilities. These assignments had Holmberg punching above his weight class.

Holmberg’s next most frequent linemate was Nick Robertson at 217 minutes. While continuing to play the defensive conscience role, this came with a lot more sheltering than Holmberg had with Nylander. As a result Holmberg’s shot differentials were superior when playing Robertson showing that Holmberg could successfully suppress offence against lesser competition, but his goal differential was higher when playing with Nylander, showing that the Leafs high end talent was critical for production in 2024-25.

In addition to the three players mentioned above, Holmberg also spent over 100 minutes with Steven Lorentz, Bobby McMann, David Kampf, and Max Domi in that order. Having stable linemates wasn’t really a thing for Holmberg last season, but it is worth noting that he seemed to have some regular success with McMann both from a shot and goal differential that seems like a potential starting place for future.

The roller coaster of usage makes it hard say definitively if Holmberg had a good 2024-25 season or not, but what can be said is that he looks like the younger budget friendly alternative to players like David Kampf and Calle Jarnkrok. If Holmberg returns at a deal similar to McMann’s, he likely remains a bottom six asset and one that can at least expect a little time up in the lineup, albeit likely more in situational usage than a permanent assignment.

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