Predicting Anaheim Duck Leo Carlsson’s Stat Line for the 2025-2026 Season

Playmakers and Linemates

Hockey is the ultimate team sport. Carlsson’s projections depend heavily on his wingers. Last season, he played significant minutes with Cutter Gauthier and Alex Killorn, a line that controlled scoring chances at just over 51% expected goals. Add Troy Terry to the mix on certain shifts, and Carlsson is surrounded by playmakers.

Because of that environment, his assist totals should climb. Last year, he finished with 25 helpers. This year coming, with similar linemates and improved finishing around him, we project 30 assists. It is a modest increase, but it reflects both better team scoring rates and Carlsson’s continued development as a distributor.

Power Play Opportunity

Special teams are where projections often swing. The Ducks’ power play was dreadful in 2024-25, ranking last in the league at just 11.8%. Despite that, Carlsson still managed seven points with the man advantage.

With Woodcroft expected to improve puck movement and zone entries, Anaheim’s power play should rebound to at least 15–16%. Combine that with Carlsson’s projected increase to nearly three minutes per game on the power play, and his output rises to around 11 power-play points. Even on a below-average unit, extra touches and more efficient structure should boost his totals.

The Other Stats

The true hockey nerds know that it is more than just goals and assists. Therefore, it is worth projecting the peripheral categories as well. Carlsson is unlikely to deliver heavy physical stats, but he should provide enough to matter and acknowledge.

• Faceoffs: He won 302 last season at 41.4%. Centres often improve with age, so projecting him around 355 wins at 43% is reasonable.
• Hits and Blocks: Not his calling card, but expect about 29 hits and 43 blocks, a small uptick with more minutes.
• Penalty Minutes: Carlsson isn’t overly physical or undisciplined, so he’ll likely stay in the 15–17 PIM range.
• Plus/Minus: Anaheim was a poor team last season, yet Carlsson finished at +6. With roster improvements and better coaching, we estimate +7 this year.
• Shorthanded Points: A bonus category — he notched two last season. With limited penalty-killing time, expect one

Final Projection: Leo Carlsson Point Projection

We projected Leo Carlsson’s 2025-26 season by blending last year’s usage and production rates with expected changes in ice time, shooting regression, power-play improvement, and age-based growth. To capture uncertainty, we ran a 10,000-season Monte Carlo simulation varying inputs like shooting percentage, PP efficiency, and games played. Blending usage, regression analysis, power-play context, and age-based growth curves, we arrive at a well-rounded forecast. In other words, this approach balances rigour and realism, giving readers a clear picture of Carlsson’s likely production and his possible upside

Leo Carlsson Point Projection (80 GP, 2025-26):

The Last Word

Projecting Carlsson is about balancing excitement with realism. His rookie and sophomore seasons showed high-end skill, but also numbers inflated by shooting efficiency. However, when you factor in more minutes, better linemates, and improved special teams, the picture is clear. Carlsson should comfortably pass 50 points while providing steady value across secondary categories.

For fantasy managers, that makes him one of the most intriguing breakout candidates in the league. If Anaheim’s power play clicks faster than expected, his ceiling goes even higher.