Predicting the Edmonton Oilers season with NHL 26

Over the years the NHL has seen its share of predictors, from famous monkeys spinning wheels to full blown expected goals models. As a new season lies in the air and summer dwindles into fall, spirits stir across Oilers Country. The Edmonton Oilers will have another shot at eternal glory, and nothing can truly predict what will unfold in the months ahead.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at what EA Sports NHL 26 had to say about the Oilers chances this season. A video game simulation is hardly an exact science, but right now the season itself lies only within the realm of imagination.

A quick season overview

The Oilers would beat the Calgary Flames in their opening game, laying on a 5–1 drubbing of their provincial rivals. This would set the tone for an uncharacteristically strong start for the Oilers, who usually seem to glimpse into the abyss sometime around November. The Oilers would get out to an early lead in the Pacific Division. Clearly the game has the Oilers rated appropriately as one of the stronger teams in the league.

The good times would not last, as the Oilers would relinquish their division lead late in the season. The Los Angeles Kings would ultimately win the division, while the Flames would finish last in the division. In a tight race Edmonton would finish third, having to travel to face the higher seeded Vancouver Canucks in the first round of the playoffs. This was an incredibly tight series the last time these two teams met in the playoffs, and is certainly a reasonable possibility to happen for real this spring.

The Oilers would sweep the Canucks, before taking on a surprising Seattle Kraken team in the second round. Despite avoiding the Oilers in the first round, the Kings would fall short. This would be a surprising result, but the Kraken have made it to the second round before. Perhaps some of their young talent taking huge strides could boost this young team ahead. The Oilers would prevail in six games, moving to their fourth Western Conference Final in the past five seasons.

Ultimately the Oilers would fall short, losing to the Colorado Avalanche in the third round. To make matters worse the Oilers were swept in this series, just as they were last time they crossed paths with the Avalanche in the playoffs. This would certainly be a tough pill for the Oilers to swallow, getting caught in the undercurrent of the past. When these teams met in the 2021–22 playoffs the Oilers were clearly outmatched, and the Avs were in their best form. The Oilers have been the better team since then, but this result would be frustrating.

Individual performances

Leon Draisaitl would lead the way, winning the Art Ross Trophy and the Hart Trophy with 44 goals and 107 points on the season. This is a fairly low scoring pace versus the past several seasons. Evan Bouchard was a force, putting up 19 goals and 76 points in only 67 games.

In the real world Connor McDavid is vowing to shoot more, and the game had him back over the 40 goal mark. Still, the simulation gave him only 90 points, which seems almost impossible with a full season of a healthy McDavid. Perhaps more importantly, the Oilers would re-sign McDavid to a seven-year contract at a $15.8M AAV.

There was more hardware for the Oilers, as Matthew Savoie managed to take home the Calder Trophy. With a strong crop of rookies coming into the league this season, Savoie is a bit of a sleeper pick. His 17 goals and 46 points mean that the game is quite conservative with their ratings for these players. Still, this would constitute a fantastic rookie performance for Savoie. He was joined by fellow new additions Andrew Mangiapane and Isaac Howard each scoring 43 and 40 points respectively. It would be great for these levels of contribution from the trio, and would signify a great deal of scoring depth in the lineup.

Stuart Skinner had a shortened season, but was able to put up some decent stats. A 0.915 save percentage and a 2.75 goals against average across 40 games is solid. Some context here is that scoring seemed to be lower in this simulation. The league’s save percentage has declined as a whole over recent years, and if Skinner could replicate that save percentage this season the Oilers would be pleased.

Takeaways from the simulation

It is a bit ridiculous to have McDavid at only 90 points. Clearly, however overpowered his likeness is in-game, the real life McDavid is even more. This goes for his hypothetical contract as well. The game might reward the physical traits of a player like Draisaitl a bit more, though he is fully capable of winning the Hart and Art Ross Trophies in real life.

Clearly the Oilers are well represented, and are one of the highest rated teams in the game. This is true in real life, as the Oilers are returning another stacked roster this season. Regardless of what the future holds, Oil Country should take this time to appreciate how this team has lifted itself to the upper class of the league. Central in this is McDavid, defining an era of this franchise more than any president, GM, or coach.