Predicting the odds of each Leafs top-10 prospect being traded at the deadline

The Toronto Maple Leafs are a team that has limited cap space and a prospect system without more than one ‘blue chip’ prospect. They are also a team that will be heavily monitored over the next week and a half with a load of external pressure to make an upgrade at the trade deadline. Such is life.

Despite this, the Leafs have shown an ability to get creative at the deadline in the past without having to move on from all of their top prospects and draft capital. Even at their busiest deadline in recent memory, which was two years ago, the only significant assets they had to part with were a pair of first-round picks, which the Leafs again have to offer up in 2026 and 2027. From a prospect standpoint, they only had to part with 2019 fourth-round pick Mikhail Abramov, who’s playing in the KHL now.

Our lead prospect writer Nick Richard spent the 4 Nations break updating our Top 20 prospect rankings to reflect each player’s midseason performance, and since the deadline is around the corner, today I’m going to examine the Leafs’ top-10 prospects and give them a rating out of 10 for how likely I think it is they’re traded at the deadline, with 1 being least likely and 10 being most likely. To be crystal clear, my “traded odds” do not correlate with the actual rankings at all, there are a number of factors that go into it between age, ceiling, and attractiveness around the league. You can read Nick’s full rankings by clicking the links at the bottom of this article.

1. Easton Cowan – 2/10

Cowan is the one Leafs prospect who has some pull around the league as a future top-six player, and although I don’t see the Leafs moving him in a deadline deal, I can’t bring myself to give him the lowest possible odds of being traded. If somebody like Dylan Cozens of the Buffalo Sabres or Mason McTavish of the Anaheim Ducks becomes available, so in other words, a young offensive player either on a cheap contract or locked into a long-term deal at a reasonable number, I would expect the Leafs to float Cowan’s name out there. That said, if they opt to keep their upgrades to a middle-six centre and a sturdy defenceman to boost the depth, they shouldn’t be dangling their top prospect. The Leafs’ first-round pick in 2023 will be eligible to play in the AHL next season and will likely get a decent shot to make the team out of camp, so I only see them moving on from him if it’s for a long-term solution.

2. Fraser Minten – 5/10

If the Leafs are going to trade for either a high-end rental like Brock Nelson or a middle-tier player with term like Scott Laughton, I believe that Minten is as far as they’d go in terms of a return piece. He likely won’t ever be a surefire top-six regular, but he’s shown glimpses of potential in both the NHL and the AHL this season, and projects as a valuable secondary player who thrives on the third line with the ability to step into a second-line role if needed. The Leafs like Minten, and like Cowan, he’ll likely be offered as fair a chance as anybody to crack the roster out of training camp, but if the upgrade calls for it, he’s one of the more likely players to head back the other way.

3. Ben Danford – 3/10

The selection of Danford at the 2024 draft marked the second year in a row the Leafs selected a player with their first-round pick that made them turn their head and say “Who?”. As of right now, he safely projects to be an NHL defenceman someday, but his lack of growth offensively in 2024-25 has people staying reserved to some extent. Since he’s only 19 years old and hasn’t exactly shocked the world with his production this season, it’s more likely than not that the Leafs will keep him and dangle one of their other defensive prospects if a potential trade calls for it.

4. Nikita Grebenkin – 3/10

Nobody went from complete unknown to potential fan favourite the way Nikita Grebenkin did. From winning KHL Rookie of the Year in his post-draft season to inking his entry-level contract last season to making his NHL debut in November, his rapid growth as a prospect has seen him skyrocket through the Leafs’ rankings in the past two years. His name has not been floated at all in any trade rumours regarding the Leafs, so I’m giving him 30% odds of being traded. But, like Cowan, if the right player is available and the deal calls for it, I don’t think anyone in the system is truly untouchable.

5. Dennis Hildeby – 5/10

Like Grebenkin, Hildeby came from the 2022 draft class and has grown quickly as a prospect. He’s arguably the team’s top goalie prospect, and although his NHL performance this season has been less than desirable, with a save percentage of .878 in six games, he’s still a 23-year-old 6-foot-6 goaltender who has proven he can hang in the pros. Some team out there that lacks goalie depth will likely be willing to take a flyer on him, and with the emergence of Artur Akhtyamov between the pipes for the Marlies, the Leafs will probably be more willing to move on from him.

6. Artur Akhtyamov – 4/10

Speaking of Akhtyamov, the two goaltenders landed back-to-back on our February rankings, so let’s compare their odds. In my personal opinion, I think the Leafs are more likely to move on from Hildeby if given the choice. The latter has more experience in North America which will prove to be more attractive to selling teams who are looking for NHL-ready young talent, and the fact that both goaltenders have a decent chunk of pro experience increases the odds of the Leafs dangling one of them in a trade. Hildeby will likely be the first one floated, but if a team is hellbent on Akhtyamov instead, I doubt the Leafs will say no.

7. Topi Niemela – 6/10

It feels like Niemela has been on the cusp forever now. Perhaps that’s just because 2020 feels like it was ten years ago at this point, but he also progressed relatively quickly in the Leafs’ system and has been in the AHL for the past two seasons. His play has taken a bit of a step back in 2024-25 and has yet to score a goal with 17 assists in 44 games, and I think he’s a good candidate for a fresh start in another system. Between that and the higher likelihood of him getting a shot on a team that’s further away from contending, he’s the only player in the top 10 who I would deem higher than 50% odds of being dealt.

8. Noah Chadwick – 4/10

Speaking of prospects who have skyrocketed through the system (noticing a trend here?), Chadwick went from being a bit of a project pick with not a lot of offence to his game to one of the team’s better defensive prospects. The 19-year-old currently playing for the Lethbridge Hurricanes went from 20 points in his draft year to 56 points the year after, and he’s on track to match those totals in 2024-25. I would guess that he’s more of interest to teams around the league than Niemela due to his size and offensive growth, but I wouldn’t pin him as untouchable if a team asks for him instead.

9. Jacob Quillan – 4/10

Quillan was signed by the Leafs following the 2023-24 season and has quickly begun to project as a fourth-liner at the NHL level. The former Quinnipiac University forward has 22 points in 45 games for his rookie year in the AHL so far, and he was rewarded with one NHL game after some stable play with the Marlies to start the year. He sort of reminds me of a Minten-type in terms of his style of game but with a lower ceiling. I doubt Quillan would be used as the centrepiece in any deadline deal, but it’s hard to project the likelihood of ‘throw-in’ types being traded because it all depends on how other teams view these players, which is why his odds land at a 3/10.

10. Miroslav Holinka – 3/10

Drafted by the Maple Leafs in the fifth round of the 2024 class, Holinka has seen success in his first junior season overseas with 15 goals and 36 points in 38 games for the WHL’s Edmonton Oil Kings. The Czechia-born centre also represented his country at the most recent World Juniors, which gives him a name-recognition boost when discussing trades with other teams, but because he’s still so young and has decent size for his position, I doubt the Leafs would move him in any deadline deals this season.

This is all personal speculation, and it’s entirely possible that not a single one of these players will be dealt by March 7, but it’ll be interesting to see who the Leafs value more than others in their system. It’s clear that they have bigger aspirations than the Joel Edmundson-centred deadline of last season, so it’s worth keeping tabs on these guys a little extra than normal over the next week and a half.

TLN’s February Maple Leafs prospect rankings: 20-16

TLN’s February Maple Leafs prospect rankings: 15-11

TLN’s February Maple Leafs prospect rankings: 10-6

TLN’s February Maple Leafs prospect rankings: 5-1

Get ready, hockey fans! The Daily Faceoff Deadline is happening on March 7th from 11 AM to 4 PM Eastern, and you won’t want to miss it. We’ll be LIVE, breaking down every trade and big move as it happens, with instant reactions and expert analysis from the Daily Faceoff crew. Plus, we’ve got special guests lined up throughout the show, offering exclusive insights from some of the biggest names in the game. From blockbuster trades to surprise moves, we’re covering it all. Tune in to the Daily Faceoff YouTube channel and follow Daily Faceoff socials on March 7th to catch all the action!