Projected Potential Contract Extension For Goaltender Adin Hill

Vegas Golden Knights goaltender Adin Hill became a folk hero during the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Despite starting the playoffs as the backup to Laurent Brossoit, Hill took the reigns and led the Golden Knights to their first Stanley Cup. He ended his postseason run with a record of 11-4, a .932 save percentage, and a very, very memorable save.

That postseason run changed the trajectory of Hill’s career and elevated him from a journeyman backup to a legitimate starting goaltender. Hill has a record of 53-27-6 and a save percentage of .909 in 91 games played with the Golden Knights. 

Hill’s legendary postseason run also earned him a shiny new contract. On June 30, 2023, Hill signed a two-year deal worth $4.9 million annually.

You can do the math. A two-year deal signed in the summer of 2023 means Hill is up for a contract extension.

On Tuesday, the sports analytics consulting firm AFP Analytics released their Midseason Extension Projections. AFP Analytics utilizes a model that considers a player’s age range, whether the player is a Restricted or Unrestricted Free Agent, and the contract values signed by comparable players in the past to generate their projections for new contracts.

Vegas Golden Knights General Manager Kelly McCrimmon has been busy this season with contract negotiations. He’s signed Shea Theodore (seven years, $7.425 million AAV), Brayden McNabb (three years, $3.65 million AAV), Brett Howden (five years, $2.5 million AAV), and Keegan Kolesar (three years, $2.5 million AAV). 

The one key player left without a contract extension is Adin Hill.

AFP Analytics projects Hill’s contract extension to be a four-year, $21,964,125 deal with an average annual value of $5,491,031.25. AFP’s projection is based on a percentage of the salary cap rather than an even number, so if McCrimmon chooses to re-sign Hill, let’s round that number up to a cool $5.5 million annually. 

With the salary cap projected to increase to $92.5 million next year, the Golden Knights will have $13,740,000 to work with– or potentially more, if the NHL canceling escrow payments is any indication. If you factor in Hill’s projected $5.5 million deal, that would leave $8,240,000 million to fill six other roster slots.

However, it’s also important to look ahead at key players who will need new contracts in the near future. Currently signed for $10 million annually, Jack Eichel will need a new deal after the 2025-26 season. Blossoming star Pavel Dorofeyev will be up for an extension in 2026 and will be in line for a significant raise from his current $1.835 annual salary.

If McCrimmon declines to re-sign Hill, the Golden Knights would need to find another goaltender to replace him. McCrimmon has historically acquired most of his key pieces through trades rather than free agency—with the notable exception being the seven-year, $61.6 million Alex Pietrangelo contract— but he could turn to the free agent market. This year’s pool of free agent goaltenders is limited, but Karel Vejmelka and Kevin Lankinen could be cheaper options if the AAV is a concern. Former Golden Knight Logan Thompson is also without a contract extension, but I think that ship has sailed.

The Golden Knights have six other roster players set to become free agents this offseason: Nic Hague, Alexander Holtz, Victor Olofsson, Tanner Pearson, Ilya Samsonov, and Cole Schwindt. Hague, Holtz, and Schwindt will become Restricted Free Agents; Hill, Olofsson, Pearson, and Samsonov will be Unrestricted Free Agents.

Other UFA Midseason Contract Predictions

Victor Olofsson: One year, $1,535,500

Tanner Pearson: One year, $1,256,843.75

Ilya Samsonov: two years, $2,136,750

RFA Midseason Contract Predictions

Nic Hague: One year, $1,614,125

Alexander Holtz: One year, $874,125

Cole Schwindt: One year, $955,756.25