Projecting Morgan Frost’s next contract using comparable deals

Taking a peek at a chart from HockeyViz, Frost had an interesting year. His ability to produce offensive chances didn’t shine so bright this season, with a -5% score in the offensive zone. Despite that, he still produced a solid 37 points. Heading down to the other end, Frost had a great year defensively with a score of -9%, shutting down high-end chances from the other team.

Heading into next season, it will be intriguing to see how Frost performs. There were moments when he shone on the offensive end, but other times, you felt disappointed in what he was bringing. His offensive production didn’t mesh incredibly well in the low-scoring Flames system, dropping to 12 points in 32 games. However, with a full year in the system and likely a higher role, Frost could very well bounce back.

Comparable #1: Ross Colton

Contract: 4 years, $4.00M AAV, 4.79% of the cap

In need of a new contract, Ross Colton draws a fair comparable for Frost. Upon signing this deal, Colton was newly acquired by the Colorado Avalanche and the same age as Frost. He had two full seasons under his belt with 39 and 32 points in them, respectively. Colton has a reputation as a more two-way forward with an ability to score similar to Frost.

They don’t play the same exact style of game, and Colton has had more playoff success, but the roles they play have me draw the comparison. Frost has more years under his belt than Colton did at the time of signing, but only by a couple. However, Colton was given this deal by a new team that had to decide to trust in a similar sense to Frost.

Comparable #2: Pavel Zacha

Contract: 4 years, $4.75M AAV, 5.69% of the cap

Another solid comparison to look towards for Frost is the contract Pavel Zacha signed with the Bruins in 2023. Zacha was halfway through his first season with the Bruins after being acquired from the New Jersey Devils when he signed this deal. Frost played a similar number of games with the Flames to end the year. Zacha and Frost don’t play the same game, but their production at the point of signing is comparable. They are also pretty much the exact same age at the point of putting the pen on the dotted line.

Two of the main differences between the two are that Zacha was in the middle of a career year and already had a trusted role with the Bruins. I can see this being a slight increase in pay compared to what the Flames will give Frost this summer.

Comparable #3: Alex Iafallo

Contract: 4 years, $4.00M AAV, 4.91% of the cap

At the midway mark of the bubble season in 2021, Alex Iafallo signed a contract extension with the Los Angeles Kings in his fourth season. Frost just finished his fourth full season at about the same age as Iafallo. Iafallo brought a two-way game to the Kings’ middle-six in a similar role that Frost has brought to the Flames. Production at certain career points is also very similar.

Iafallo had developed with the Kings, giving him more trust than the Flames may have with Frost. However, Frost has also shown a more promising offensive style of play. Overall, Iafallo’s contract is very comparable to something Frost might receive from the Flames.

Comparable #4: Mikael Backlund

Contract: 3 years, $3.575M AAV, 5.01% of the cap

The current Flames captain makes a surprise appearance on this list. At age 26, Backlund signed a fresh contract with the Flames after finally locking down a role over the prior two seasons. Backlund’s production after signing this is actually a lot more comparable to Frost’s. But his solidified role is enough to draw some similarities to Frost. Even playstyle-wise, I’d say a 26-year-old Backlund is the most comparable to Frost on this list.

Once again, like Iafallo, Backlund had developed with the Flames, likely giving them more trust in him than a new guy in Frost. Nonetheless, Frost is still the more established at the given points in their careers, and his offensive ceiling has shown more flash.

Comparable #5: Phillip Danault

Contract: 3 years, $3.083M AAV, 3.88% of the cap

Just a few years after cracking the NHL full-time, Phillip Danault signed his first real contract heading into the 2018–19 season. The 25-year-old centre had two full years under his belt after being acquired from the Chicago Blackhawks. By the time of the contract signings, Frost will have shown similar potential to what Danault had at the time. Danault definitely had more natural promise in the defensive end, while Frost has shown more untapped offensive potential. Also, Danault was drafted only one spot higher than Frost in their respective drafts.

With the two-way style plus 40ish point seasons, current day Frost could easily fetch a contract similar to 2018 Danault.

What will Morgan Frost’s contract look like?

All the centres we have covered draw some comparable to Frost at the time of signing their contracts. Whether it be similar production, playstyle, role, or a mixture, a fair argument can be made why we might see Frost sign a contract similar to theirs. His 40 to 50-point production, combined with his two-way results, has made for at least a solid middle-six forward with possibly more to show.

There’s no crazy disparity in the contracts we pointed towards. No contract was shorter than three years or longer than four years. The AAV or cap percentage differences aren’t absurdly different either. A couple of the players received their contracts after developing with the team and earning some trust. On the other hand, the rest acquired the deal in the trust that they would live up to it.

I believe Frost could show a little bit more next year, and I have faith that he will be a sound part of the team for seasons to come. However, Frost does only have 32 games under his belt with the Flames. So, it’s easy to lean towards Ross Colton or Pavel Zacha for the comparables.

Averaging out the AAV and years, we get a contract of $3.88M for four years. With the cap rising to $95.50M, it’s important to also pay attention to the cap space percentage. When averaging that out, we get 4.86% of the cap, which is $4.64M per year. With all that considered, we are likely looking at a three-to-five-year deal with an AAV between $4.00M and $4.75M for Frost. Overall, my prediction is that we see Frost sign a deal with the Flames of $4.50M for four years.