Random Thoughts: Oilers vs. Golden Knights Round 2

With the Edmonton Oilers dusting off the Los Angeles Kings in six games in round one, the next challenge will be significantly more difficult as the boys roll into Vegas to challenge the Pacific Division-winning Golden Knights. It’s a challenge I know the boys will embrace, but one that has a few questions rolling around in my head that I would love your help in figuring out.

A BIG TEST FOR OUR PAL CAL

One of the greatest stories from the first round was how Calvin Pickard was inserted between the pipes in Game 3 and rattled off four consecutive victories to cash in his first-ever NHL playoff series win. That’s a cool ass story for a guy no one expected to even be on the Edmonton Oilers’ roster when he signed his initial deal a couple of years ago. If you think about it, we should still be in the middle of a Campbell/Skinner, so to have Pickard be our guy is a plot point that is as unexpected as it is fantastic. Of course, no one wins the Stanley Cup with only four wins, but Calvin Pickard’s ability to be ready when called upon made the difference in Round 1. We’ll need plenty more of that determination starting this week.

However, the pressure on Cal to continue performing will crank up with each passing game when it comes to the Golden Knights. And to this point, he’s done a fine job of seizing the moment and giving his teammates a strong foundation between the pipes, but that job will get much tougher come Game 1. We know the boys love playing in front of him, but the question I have as we head into Round 2 is whether he can build upon his successes against the Kings. As much as I love the Pickard story, the most important chapter will be whether he can continue leading his team to victory. I personally believe Pickard can get the job done again, but I’m also incredibly biased, and only time will give us the real story.

THE DEPTH SCORING

In Game 6 against the Kings, the Oilers got six goals from six different goal scorers, and none of them were named Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl. In fact, in that sixth and deciding game, our beloved Dynamic Duo only had a single point between them, but the Oilers managed to win anyway, thanks to their depth scorers stepping up. That massive curveball started to come through in the series vs. L.A. that the Kings couldn’t handle. They basically planned to stop Connor and Leon as best they could, but what they didn’t expect was that everyone else was going to come through with clutch goals at key moments anyway.

If Edmonton is going to exact revenge on the Golden Knights for what happened in the second round two years ago, they’ll need the entirety of the lineup contributing once more. When the Oilers lost to Vegas in 2023, a big part of the problem was that the team was very dependent on the offence created by 97 and 29 to make it work. Yes, there were goaltending issues and odd coaching decisions by Woody that contributed as well, but it’s hard to ignore how much better Vegas’ depth players were at contributing than what we were getting. Those questions about depth will disappear quickly if our boys keep finding ways to contribute. I mean, the Oilers got goals from 13 different skaters in Round 1, and that production ultimately led to the Kings’ demise. If we’re going to make it through this next round, we’ll need a lot more of those clutch moments. Dare to dream.

SPECIAL TEAMS

How big were the special teams in Round 1? In the first three games, the Oilers got demolished on the PK, and it started to feel like their inability to come up with a kill would be their downfall. Edmonton dominated the special teams battle over the first three series against the Kings, but in year four, it looked like that same thing was going to happen to us. Of course, the Oilers’ PP and PK turned things around nicely as the series rolled along, but we can’t have those same struggles heading into Round 2. The Oilers need to be dialled in on special teams right from puck drop in Game 1. We need execution on special teams to win this series.

Comparing the numbers, Edmonton holds the edge in power play percentage with a 38.5% success rate compared to Vegas’ 27.8%. While it’s nice that the Oilers look to have the advantage, the Golden Knights are scoring on nearly a third of their chances with the man advantage, a problem that doesn’t take a data scientist to figure out. When you tack on the fact that the Oilers’ PK is running at only 60% right now, it’s not hard to see an issue that Kris Knoblauch and co will need to rectify. On the flip side, Vegas’ PK is running at 76.9% — nothing spectacular in their own right — and that gives me hope that the Oilers’ improving power play will be able to eat when we need them to. Either way, if the Oilers are going to get through this second series, they’ll need their special teams to look more like they did late in the Kings series than they did early on. If not, we could be in trouble again, an outcome we’d all want to avoid.

THE VEGAS RUSH ATTACK

One of the tactics I’ve noticed when watching Vegas take on Dallas is how the Golden Knights send a single forward flying out of the zone to stretch out the d-coverage. They have a winger running to the far blue line for a stretch pass and use the space created by the defenceman backing off to move through the neutral zone. When it works as planned, Vegas ends up with a lot of easy zone entries and the ability to generate offence off the rush. It was something that Minnesota really struggled to defend, and honestly, it reminds me of what the Dallas Stars were trying to do to us last year in the Western Conference Final.

As a result, Edmonton’s defencemen will need to keep their heads on a swivel to make sure no one gets behind them. The forwards also need to be aware of when someone flies out for a stretch pass because it could give them opportunities for odd-man rushes against if they can defend it well. I also noticed that once Vegas gets into the offensive zone, they do a very good job parking bodies in front of the net. They thrive on chaos in the offensive zone and always seem to do it without being called for interference or anything like that. Ensuring the crease is clear and that Calvin Pickard can see what’s happening in front of him will be paramount to Edmonton’s success. I know all of this is easier said than done and that Kris Knoblauch and his staff will do what they can to counter these tactics, but what’s clear is that this will be a much different challenge for the Oilers defensively, and it’s going to take everyone’s best if we’re going to get through it. Do you believe?