Ranking the Toronto Maple Leafs’ best and worst opponents for the NHL playoffs

With the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs just around the corner, the Toronto Maple Leafs are hoping to take the top of the Atlantic Division. The playoff matchups have yet to be set, and the teams are still fighting for division and wild card placements.

With such a tight race, the Round 1 matchups will go right down to the wire. The Leafs, as we all know, have a very difficult time getting past the first round, and if they want to have a good chance at making a deep run, who they play first will determine their chances.

Some matchups are more favorable than others, and give the Leafs a better chance, but each matchup will prove difficult nonetheless. Let’s rank the possible opponents from most favourable to least favourable.

1. Ottawa Senators

The Maple Leafs are going to have a chance to reignite the Battle of Ontario in these playoffs for the first time since 2004. A lot has changed since the early 2000s, both on and off the ice, but this would be the easiest matchup for the Leafs on paper.

This Ottawa Senators roster doesn’t have much playoff experience, and much of their core roster is young guys. The Leafs would be heading into this series as favourites with a more high-end roster on the offensive end and a bigger, grittier and tougher defence. And while Linus Ullmark is a great goalie, the Leafs duo of Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz can go toe-to-toe with Ottawa’s best in net.

This is still a matchup that should not be taken lightly. The Sens are a team on the rise, which has found its stride at the right moment, and being led by Brady Tkachuk makes them a formidable threat. They have scoring from guys like Tim Stutzle and Claude Giroux, and their defensive corps has guys like Thomas Chabot and Jake Sanderson, who is now a legitimate star. While the Sens are the least experienced, they should not be taken lightly in any case. 

2. Tampa Bay Lightning

This is a more familiar foe for the Maple Leafs and their fans. After falling to them in 2022 in seven games, the Leafs did the seemingly impossible and beat the Lightning in six games in 2023.

The Lightning are not the same team they were those years, or their cup runs. This team has lost some substantial depth and some core guys like Steven Stamkos. This is a team that the Leafs have proven they can beat, but still should not be taken lightly by anyone.

The Lightning still have a strong core with guys like Nikita Kucherov, Brandon Hagel and Victor Hedman, along with new additions such as Oliver Bjorkstrand and Yanni Gourde. And with Jake Guentzel replacing Stamkos, and some much-needed youth added, this Lightning team is substantially better than last year’s.

Tampa has been to three finals in the last few years and knows how to win. The thought of having to face Andrei Vasilevskiy and Jon Cooper in the playoffs once again should be a frightening sight, but the Leafs have proved they can do it. 

3. Florida Panthers 

This is the matchup that should keep Leafs fans up everywhere.

The Florida Panthers have been, without a doubt, the best team in the Eastern Conference over the last couple of years. We have no reason to believe that they aren’t once again the favourites to make it out of the East.

They have talent in all aspects up and down the lineup. They have the types of players and play style that translate perfectly into the postseason, and they are the ideal build for playoff hockey. Matthew Tkachuk and Sam Bennett are there to bring you into a fight and ruin your day. They have Sam Reinhart, who is now a legitimate goal scorer and Aleksander Barkov, who is arguably the best two-way centre who can shut down your favourite star.

On the back end, they have Aaron Ekblad, who is a solid first-pairing defenceman. Sergei Bobrovsky in net is a goalie who can steal a series and stand his head all the way to the finals. Despite all this, the scariest part is that the Panthers went out and acquired Brad Marchand at the deadline this year. This is a matchup no one, let alone the Leafs, should be looking forward to in the playoffs. 

No easy road

The Stanley Cup Playoffs are filled with teams that all deserve to be there, and there is no such thing as an easy road to the finals. The East is full of very talented teams with really good players. It will ultimately be up to the Leafs and their stars to show up and perform regardless of who they play; that is the only way the Leafs can go far.

The matchup will be tough regardless, but if the Leafs stars can shine brightest on the biggest stage, they have as good of a chance as anybody.