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Oct 15, 2025; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Red Wings right wing Patrick Kane (88) receives congratulations from teammates after he scores a power play goal in the second period against the Florida Panthers at Little Caesars Arena. (Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images)

Red Wings’ 'Rule of 3' Key to Playoff Berth

Originally posted on The Hockey Writers | By Tony Wolak | Last updated Mar 19, 2026 8:35 AM ET

Coming out of the Olympic break, the Detroit Red Wings are just 4-4-2 – not exactly the kind of stretch a playoff team can afford with the standings tightening.

Injuries, including Dylan Larkin’s absence, have played a role. But regardless of context, Detroit has slipped from a secure Atlantic Division position into a crowded wild card race with little margin for error. While the Red Wings stalled, the rest of the division surged, leaving multiple teams within striking distance.

So, how can Detroit get over the finish line and end its playoff drought?

The answer is simple in theory: what I call the “Rule of 3.” Score three or more goals per game and/or allow three or fewer.

Here are Detroit’s records when those benchmarks are met:

30-4-6 when scoring three or more goals
35-4-3 when allowing three goals or fewer

The results speak for themselves. Simple, right? Maybe conceptually, but executing is a little more difficult. And that’s where Detroit’s special teams can do the heavy lifting.

Red Wings’ Special Teams Key to Scoring Objectives

Detroit’s power play has been a strength for most of the season, but it has cooled off significantly since the Olympic break. The Red Wings have just four goals on 28 opportunities (14.3 percent) – the eighth-worst conversion rate in the league over that span.

That downturn has prompted adjustments, including a couple new looks that the Red Wings have deployed recently. Still, more work is needed.

“There’s so many pieces on a power play that go together,” head coach Todd McLellan told reporters. “It’s all about being connected, and we’ve got maybe two or three pieces connected and then one’s missing.

“And I don’t necessarily mean individuals, I mean pieces of execution. Whether the breakout part’s good and then the entry falls apart, or possession is good and then we get it to that shooting spot and we bobble it or we don’t do something with it. So, there are really positive pieces, but there’s the connectivity between pieces. We just need to get it together.”

If Detroit is going to consistently reach the three-goal threshold, it won’t come at five-on-five alone. The power play has to be a driver—not a supplement—especially with the team’s even-strength offense still a work in progress.

On the other side, the penalty kill must protect the ceiling. The Red Wings have allowed seven goals during the 26 times they have been shorthanded since the break – a 73.1 percent kill rate. That number has to climb.

Even league-average performance would likely be the difference. In a race this tight, a handful of goals—scored or prevented—can swing the outcome.

Final Word

Game by game, the formula remains straightforward: hit three goals offensively or hold the opponent to three or fewer. When Detroit does that, the results are usually favorable.

Special teams will play a central role in getting there, whether it’s jumpstarting the power play or stabilizing the penalty kill. But ultimately, execution across the lineup will determine the outcome. That means everyone – stars, rookies, veterans, and role players.

The formula has already proven effective. Now, with the margin for error gone, the Red Wings need to deliver on it as they embark on a critical stretch with games against the Montreal Canadiens, Ottawa Senators, Boston Bruins, and Buffalo Sabres.

Data courtesy of NHL.com and Natural Stat Trick.