Red Wings Weekly #6 – What’s the Blueprint?

Detroit got some good offense from their depth as well, with Michael Rasmussen and Jonatan Berggren both adding two points. Below the hood, the win was solid as well, with Detroit roughly matching or beating the Ducks in just about every advanced metric. This was a blueprint win for the fight that Detroit needs to show going forward. 

Recap

What’s the Opposite of a Blueprint Win?

Saturday, Nov. 15 vs. Buffalo Sabres, 5-4 Overtime Loss

What a disaster. After Buffalo stumbled through the first 30 minutes of this game, Detroit had a commanding 4-1 lead . . . and you know the rest. Careless turnovers, misplayed coverages, missed passes, just an absolutely terrible close-out job by Detroit to allow four straight goals and lose in overtime. The loser point has never felt more aptly named.

Recap

Quick Temper

Sunday, Nov. 16 vs. New York Rangers, 2-1 Win

After their awful collapse against Buffalo, Detroit needed a game just like this where they competed hard for a full 60 minutes, not letting up or giving New York any real chance to get into the game. Detroit’s top-six scored both of the team’s goals, and they peppered Jonathan Quick with 42 shots. 

However, it was the last shot Detroit took, from Mason Appleton into the empty net about one second after the buzzer went for the end of the game that really rattled Quick. He led the Rangers back out onto the ice to try and get a piece of Appleton for . . . some reason. It led to some great pictures though!

Recap

3 Takeaways From the Week

Top-Six Jumpstart

After combining for just two points in three games last week, Detroit’ top-six forwards popped off this week, scoring a combined 21 points. Despite his somewhat slow start (due to a minor injury), Raymond is playing some of his best hockey lately, scoring a whopping seven points in three games this week.

DeBrincat has also begun to normalize his shooting percentage, scoring on a third of his 15 shots to bring him to 11.7% shooting this year. That’s a respectable number, especially considering his absolutely ice-cold start to the season, but DeBrincat’s shooting numbers still have space to grow with a career average of 14.1%. 

Axel Sandin Pellikka, Power Play One?

Axel Sandin Pellikka (ASP) has had a good, but not great, start to his NHL career. He has scored a couple of goals, made his fair share of rookie mistakes, and has looked like a real building block for this team moving forward. However, the future is now on Detroit’s top power play unit where ASP has taken Moritz Seider’s spot as the quarterback of the top group. In a very small sample size this week, Detroit generated nearly three times the expected goals in ASP’s 10 power play minutes as they did in Seider’s 10 minutes (stats via. Natural Stat Trick). 

If this is a trend moving forward, not only does Detroit have a highly skilled power play quarterback who is shifty with the puck, can distribute well from the point and present a shot threat from the left circle, but they might just free up Seider a bit. Seider has famously worked through some of the toughest deployment in NHL history over the past few seasons and passing off the responsibility of the top power play unit could give him a bit more rest to worry about the penalty kill and even strength.

When Do We Worry About John Gibson?

In 11 games for the Red Wings so far this season, John Gibson has had a save percentage above .900% just three times. How many games does he have under .820%? Also three for a season-long average hovering around .875%. Out of all 58 NHL goalies who have played at least five games this year, Gibson’s save percentage ranks 49th. His goals against average is 48th. 

There have been flashes of brilliance, like his masterpiece against the Tampa Bay Lightning back in October where he made countless remarkable saves or his excellent game against the Vegas Golden Knights where he kept them in the game despite facing 34 shots from one of the NHL’s juggernauts. However, his strong play has been far too infrequent this year and Detroit really needs him to play even just like an average NHL starter if they want to jump back into the playoff race. 

3 Stars of the Week

1. Alex DeBrincat (5 goals, 1 assist)

2. Lucas Raymond (1 goal, 6 assists)

3. Moritz Seider (1 goal, 4 assists)

Prospect to Watch

Amadeus Lombardi, C/LW, Grand Rapids Griffins (AHL)

Amadeus “Ammo” Lombardi has been excellent in the AHL over the past year and a half, scoring at a point-per-game pace last season. Lombardi is off to a hot start this season as well, scoring 13 points in 11 games, with only two goals coming so far despite scoring 19 last season. That puts him at 5th in AHL points per game (minimum 10 games played) and he’s poised to keep that up. 

Lombardi is going to be a serious call-up option for Detroit this season, especially with Carter Mazur still out hurt. Ammo’s speed, skill, and tenacity should make him a valuable depth piece in the bottom six, capable of creating havoc and scoring chances. Remember the name I’m confident Lombardi will be a Red Wing in the near future.

The Week at a Glance

Despite an embarrassing collapse against the Sabres, Detroit finishes this week with five out of a possible six points and sits at second in the Atlantic Division with 23 points (11-7-1). Raymond scored seven points and DeBrincat potted five goals, while Seider nearly doubled his point total from six up to 11 this week.

Upcoming Games

Tuesday, Nov. 18 vs. Seattle Kraken – 7PM ET

Thursday, Nov. 20 vs. New York Islanders – 7PM ET

Saturday, Nov. 22 vs. Columbus Blue Jackets – 1PM ET

In Other News

Tony Wolak:
Red Wings Need Multiple Trades to Fix Struggling Offense

Jordan Orth:
It’s Time for the Red Wings to Retire Sergei Fedorov’s No. 91

Devin Little:
Red Wings’ 3rd Pairing is Better With Jacob Bernard-Docker