Red Wings Weekly #9 – Gibson Showing Signs of Life

Goaltending Optional

Thursday, December 4 vs. Columbus Blue Jackets – 6-5 Shootout Loss

The second period of this game had five power play goals with the two teams combining for only eight power play opportunities in the whole game. Not a great night for either penalty kill. It wasn’t a banner night for the goalies either, allowing 10 total goals on 65 shots for a save percentage of .846%. Detroit is surely happy to at least earn a point in this game, but losing in a shootout after holding the lead going into the final two minutes of regulation always burns. 

Game Recap

Is This a New John Gibson?

Saturday, December 6 vs. Seattle Kraken – 4-3 Win

Detroit scored four goals and won this game despite getting zero points from their top two players in Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond. When is the last time they won with those two combining for zero points you ask? October 25 against the Blues. That’s right, those guys have been involved in at least one goal in each of the team’s nine wins since then. After going winless in November, Gibson now has two wins to start off the month of December, more on that below.

Game Recap

3 Takeaways From the Week

1. The Atlantic Playoff Picture is Still Super Weird

The top six teams in the Atlantic Division are separated by just five points in the standings, between the Tampa Bay Lightning sitting at 34 and the Toronto Maple Leafs who have 29. Detroit sat at fourth in the division on Saturday afternoon, but are now just one point behind the Lightning after a win against Seattle. Another thing worthy of note is that the two-time reigning Stanley Cup Champs, the Florida Panthers, are currently seventh in the division with 26 points. 

Is it a good thing for Detroit that they’re still very much in the race for a divisional seed? Sure. Is it also scary that another bad week could see them sliding out of this really tight playoff picture? Absolutely. 

2. Quinn Hughes Trade Conversations

Okay, so Quinn Hughes has been a major topic of conversation among Red Wings fans and for good reason. However, I want to set some realistic expectations here for a theoretical trade. If you’re calling Axel Sandin Pellikka (ASP) a non-negotiable trade asset for Quinn Hughes, please turn off your phone and go enjoy some quiet time with your family this Holiday season. I think the dream scenario for ASP’s development is that he becomes 75% of what Hughes is right now. 

Okay, so what would the Canucks want in a theoretical trade? Vancouver is in desperate need of centers, and would likely begin the negotiations around one of Marco Kasper or Nate Danielson, before adding some known NHL talent and some picks that they’d likely end up flipping knowing their management group. In the modern NHL, free agency is dead and the only ways to acquire star talent is through the draft or in a trade. If Detroit wants to land someone of Hughes’ caliber, they will need to pony up with a substantial trade package. If Detroit does trade for him, there will likely be some serious sticker shock.

3. John Gibson Month-by-Month

John Gibson has had a difficult start to his Red Wings tenure, but let’s take a quick look at his performance month by month.

October: 4-3-0 record, .875 sv%, 3.32 GAA

November: 0-4-2 record, .853 sv%, 3.91 GAA

December: 2-0-0 record, .892 sv%, 3.5 GAA

You can see just how rough November was for Gibson, with no wins and an atrocious .853 save percentage. December, however, is an example of how much better the team can be when they get something approaching average goaltending. His December save percentage would still rank just 42nd in the NHL (among goalies who have played at least eight games), but Detroit’s offense has proven itself capable of scoring enough goals to be competitive when they allow three-plus goals.

If Gibson can hold onto this performance, or even continue to stabilize and improve, then Detroit will have a much better chance of holding onto a playoff spot. Cam Talbot has been up and down this season, but has been the more stable of the team’s goalies. He’s likely to slow down further as the season stretches on, so Detroit would benefit greatly from some improved play from Gibson. 

3 Stars of the Week

1. Moritz Seider – 1G, 5A, 59.7% CF%

1. Patrick Kane – 2G, 3A, 65% SF%

1. James van Riemsdyk – 3G, 58% CF%, 71.5 xGF%

Prospect to Watch

Sebastian Cossa, G, Grand Rapids Griffins (AHL)

Much has been made of Sebastian Cossa’s development, from his disappointing D+1 season in the WHL, to his unorthodox season in the ECHL. Despite it all, he still stands out as a high-end goaltending prospect in the NHL. Cossa has had an unbelievable start in the AHL this year, leading the league in save percentage (.943%) and goals against average (1.56). It’s fair to say he’s been the very best goaltender in the league this year, and it feels like a matter of time before he earns a start or two in Detroit. 

While it may be tempting to rush Cossa into a full-time NHL role given the success of young goalies like Jesper Wallstedt and Yaroslav Askarov this year, Detroit’s measured approach with Cossa appears to be working and I wouldn’t be inclined to rush that. Cossa recently turned 23, which isn’t an uncommon age for goaltenders to break out into the league, and his 10-1-0 record tells me he’s doing about as well as can be expected in the AHL.

Upcoming Games

Monday, December 8 vs. Vancouver Canucks @ 10pm ET

Wednesday, December 10 vs. Calgary Flames @ 8:30pm ET

Thursday, December 11 vs. Edmonton Oilers @ 9pm ET

Saturday, December 13 vs. Chicago Blackhawks @ 8pm ET

In Other News

Devin Little:
Dear Santa: Red Wings’ 2025 Wish List

Matthew Zator:
3 Potential Trades Involving Canucks Star Quinn Hughes