Welcome to my annual player review series, where I dive into the Edmonton Oilers season player-by-player. We’ll look back at the season that was, what kind of impact each player had, and what we could see from them next season. You can read about the analytics behind my analysis here.
A jack-of-all-trades but a master of none, regression came hunting for Ryan Nugent-Hopkins this season. 20 goals and 49 points in 78 games is a noticeable dip from the 67-point and 104-point seasons he had in each of the last two years. While his shooting percentage remained at a career level overall, his ability to set up teammates dipped with a .37 assists per game rate well below the 0.5 he’s averaged in his career.
Part of that dip in production is due to some scoring regression from Connor McDavid, Zach Hyman and Evan Bouchard. There was, to put it simply, a little less offence to go around from this group this season.
Nugent-Hopkins still remained an effective player. With him on the ice the Oilers regularly controlled the shot attempt share, scoring chance share, and expected goal share, while breaking even in terms of actual goal share.
And while there was scoring regression in the regular season, there sure wasn’t in the playoffs. He chipped in six goals and 20 points in 22 games, including a goal and nine assists at five-on-five. The Oilers lost the shot attempt share battle, but won where it mattered most as they dominated the expected goal share and controlled 61.1 percent of the goals scored with him on the ice. His playoff performance was, to put it simply, huge for the Oilers.
His individual impacts did take a hit this season, however. According to Hockey Viz, he drove offence at a five percent rate below league average, defence at a five percent rate above league average, power play work at a four percent rate above league average and penalty kill work at a two percent rate below league average. Overall, his impact was at the rate of a low-end third-line player, on the cusp of a fourth line player.
It’s important to note that’s not who Nugent-Hopkins is, but this is a rate that he has been at before, most recently the 2021-22 season, and was even below this mark between 2015-16 and 2019-20.
There’s no denying the value he brings to the team in many ways, and the question is how the team will utilize him moving forward. He had success playing up the middle during the regular season, expressing how comfortable he was there.
With added depth on the wings in Andrew Mangiapane, Matt Savoie and Ike Howard, one has to wonder if the third-line centre spot will be Nugent-Hopkins’ new home.
Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PTS/G | PPG | SHG | GWG | SOG | S% | ATOI |
2013-2014 |
80 19 37 56 -12 26 0.70 6 0 4 178 10.7 20:24 2014-2015
76 24 32 56 -12 25 0.74 2 0 2 189 12.7 20:38 2015-2016
55 12 22 34 -9 18 0.62 4 0 1 108 11.1 19:04 2016-2017
82 18 25 43 -10 29 0.52 5 0 4 200 9.0 17:42 2017-2018
62 24 24 48 10 20 0.77 4 2 2 151 15.9 18:05 2018-2019
82 28 41 69 -13 26 0.84 8 1 3 208 13.5 20:06 2019-2020
65 22 39 61 1 33 0.94 7 0 4 172 12.8 20:28 2020-2021
52 16 19 35 -4 22 0.67 9 0 2 135 11.9 20:46 2021-2022
63 11 39 50 3 16 0.79 1 3 1 154 7.1 19:19 2022-2023
82 37 67 104 12 35 1.27 15 1 3 201 18.4 19:48 2023-2024
80 18 49 67 10 36 0.84 4 0 3 183 9.8 19:37 2024-2025
78 20 29 49 4 24 0.63 7 2 5 164 12.2 18:58 Totals: 857 249 423 672 -20 310 0.78 72 9 34 2043 12.2 19:25
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