Salary Cap Deep Dive: Edmonton Oilers

It was said at the time that McDavid signed his new two-year deal that he left money on the table to give Edmonton a shot at building a better group around him.  Seeing where salaries went this summer for top-end talent, saying he left money on the table is an understatement.  McDavid’s next contract will start at age 31 and he would be able to command a max-term contract worth the maximum salary (projected at $22.7MM, 20% of the Upper Limit if he signed next summer, higher if he waited a year and tested the market).  But is that the type of contract he’ll want to sign?  It’s entirely possible that he takes less than that to give his team a better chance to win.  It’s also possible he inks another short-term pact to keep his options open.  Regardless of which route he takes, he can call his shot on what he wants his salary to be.

Hyman was a terrific addition back in 2021, giving McDavid a strong complementary linemate.  That’s probably underselling it quite a bit, too, considering that he’s scored at least 27 goals per year in an Edmonton uniform.  He’ll be 36 when his next contract starts so it won’t be a long-term pact but a multi-year agreement is still likely.  If he’s still even a second liner at that point, he should be eyeing a multi-million-dollar raise of his own.

Jarry had good and bad moments in Pittsburgh, the former helping him secure this deal.  The latter got him moved to Edmonton where the bad outweighed the good last season.  At this point, he’s more of a mid-tier option at best and unless he turns things around the next couple of years, he’ll be looking at a notable cut in salary.

2028-29

Forecasted Upper Limit: $123MM
Current Cap Charge: $61.025MM (10 players signed)
Cap Space: $61.925MM
Potential Bonuses: None
Dead Cap: $1.5MM (Campbell buyout)

Obviously, the UFA class looms large as McDavid and Hyman are likely to cost significantly more than their current price tags.  Combined, they could take up half of the cap space number shown here, before factoring in RFAs and the 2027 free agent class.

Expiring Contracts (RFA): None

Expiring Contracts (UFA): D Evan Bouchard ($10.5MM), D Mattias Ekholm ($4MM), F Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($5.125MM), F Vasily Podkolzin ($2.95MM)

Nugent-Hopkins has been a top-six fixture in Edmonton for a decade and a half but he is starting to slow down.  By the time his deal ends, he’ll be 36 and might be in more of a supporting role.  That could keep the price tag around where it is now, even in an inflationary market.  Podkolzin had a breakout showing in his second year with the Oilers, providing lower-end second-line production and plenty of physicality.  If the output isn’t a one-off and can be maintained, he’ll be in line to more than double this price tag on his next deal.  If the production tapers off, then his next AAV could land more in the $4.5MM range.

Bouchard’s decision to sign for four years looks like a wise one now, given where the market has gone.  If he’s still an elite offensive performer, he’ll hit the open market entering his age-30 year with a chance to more than double this price point.  It’s not just a massive number for McDavid that the Oilers will need to be concerned about; the jump for Bouchard will be even bigger.  Ekholm begins this new deal at 36 and is still a top-four blueliner.  That will probably change by the end of it but they should still get good value on this contract.  If he signs another contract, it will likely be a one-year pact and knowing what’s coming with Bouchard, it wouldn’t be surprising if Edmonton pushed for a bonus-laden structure.Read more

2029-30

Forecasted Upper Limit: $133.5MM (8.5% increase)
Current Cap Charge: $38.45MM (6 players signed)
Cap Space: $95.05MM
Potential Bonuses: None
Dead Cap: $1.5MM (Campbell buyout-final year)

It’s fair to say that the projected cap increase will be heading to Bouchard.  That will make keeping the other free agents considerably tougher to keep around.  One or two might be doable but all three probably won’t work.

Expiring Contracts (RFA): None

Expiring Contracts (UFA): None

Signed For 2030-31 And Beyond

For that season, there will be a new CBA in place so trying to forecast the cap and cap space basically becomes a guessing game.  Accordingly, we’ll go back to the old Deep Dive format for players signed beyond the 2030-31 campaign.

F Jason Dickinson ($4MM through 2030-31)
F Leon Draisaitl ($14MM through 2032-33)
F Trent Frederic ($3.85MM through 2032-33)
D Connor Murphy ($4.1MM through 2030-31)
D Ryan Shea ($4MM through 2030-31)
D Jake Walman ($7MM through 2032-33)

Draisaitl made some headlines when he signed this deal, one that briefly was the richest in league history while also moving him ahead of McDavid cost-wise.  Of course, it’s also looking like a team-friendly pact already with how the market has exploded.  He’s a legitimate number one center and should be for several more years before age starts to become a concern.  He’ll be entering his age-38 year on his next contract and at that point, his production and ice time should be dipping, as should his price tag at that time.

Dickinson signed this deal this summer to bypass the open market.  It’s on the pricey side if he’s a fourth liner but if he can lock down the third line center spot for the next few years, it should be a reasonable deal for Edmonton.  He’ll be 36 when this contract is up and by then, his role and price should be a bit more limited.  Frederic’s contract was a head-scratcher when it was signed last year and it looks worse now after a rough year.  Yes, the market for physical forwards has gone up but not quite to this extent yet.  If he can get back to even approaching 25 points, the deal would look better. However, he has a long way to go to get there.

Walman signed an early extension back in October with the expectation that he’d pick up where he left off after being acquired at the trade deadline.  That didn’t happen.  Instead, he was more of a fourth or fifth option and this price tag for that role is on the high side.  But if he can get back to being a second or third defender, they can still do well with this contract.  He’ll be 37 when this deal is up and likely in a reduced role by then.

That’s where Murphy now finds himself.  He fit in well down the stretch after being acquired, earning this deal through his age-38 season.  He’s already more of an ideal third-pairing option but a capable defensive right-shot defender is always going to have plenty of suitors; he likely left money on the table by extending early.  By the time this deal is up, he will likely be much more limited in his role.  Shea had a breakout year in Pittsburgh at the age of 29 last season.  If he maintains that level in Edmonton, this will be a huge steal.  But if he reverts to being more of a depth defender as he was before 2025-26, then this could be a problematic pact.  The safer bet is that he can at least hold down a regular spot on the third pairing and provide some value on this deal.  He’s young enough that if he’s a top-four piece at the end of the agreement, he could be in line for another big raise.

Outlook

Edmonton’s short-term cap outlook is reasonable.  When some players return from injuries, they should be able to bank some space for in-season moves.  Next summer will see them have even more wiggle room but it might have to be used on short-term pacts with McDavid, Hyman, and Bouchard heading toward significant raises in the not-too-distant future.