Salary cap deep dive for the Tampa Bay Lightning

Considering the number of times that Tampa Bay has extended its core players as soon as possible under GM Julien BriseBois, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that the same thing would happen to Stamkos. Surprisingly, it hasn’t, an outcome that the captain himself isn’t too pleased about. 

While his output slowed last season, he still put up 34 goals and averaged more than a point per game. At this price point, that’s still pretty good value. 

Stamkos will be 34 next summer and in a position to earn another multi-year agreement, likely with a market value around what he’s making now unless he slows down considerably this year. 

BriseBois is taking a wait-and-see approach to see if Stamkos still fits on the team moving forward, a question that might not be able to be answered until we know the actual Upper Limit for 2024-25.

Motte was a late-summer signing after Josh Archibald decided to not play this year. This is the second straight summer where his camp has misread the market, resulting in a lower-than-expected contract. Assuming he has a similar showing this year as he has had lately, a small raise should be achievable as long as he doesn’t set his sights too high again early in free agency. 

Brown comes in after being non-tendered by St. Louis and if he can earn a spot in the lineup when he returns from an injury that will keep him out at the start of the season, he could get a small raise or at least more guaranteed money next year. 

Barre-Boulet is listed here as he’s tied for the lowest cap hit in the league which gives him a shot at a spot on the fourth line. Primarily a minor leaguer the last two years, he’s likely to stay around the minimum salary next year.

Among the blueliners, Seabrook’s career has been over since late 2019. He’ll be on LTIR for one more season and then the Lightning can try to work back to being a non-LTIR team, ideally giving them a chance to back a bit of in-season flexibility. 

Meanwhile, Myers isn’t even on the roster now as a decision to extend him around this time last year didn’t pan out as he’s already cleared waivers. However, they’ll still carry a $250K charge even with him in the minors. 

Considering what they’re currently over their LTIR ceiling by, that small amount is notable. Myers will likely wind up with a deal close to the minimum next summer.

Bogosian’s days of being an every-game player are done but he can still hold his own on a third pairing. With his usage the last few years though, it’s hard to see him getting more than this on the open market next year. 

Tampa Bay brought in de Haan this summer and it’s possible he winds up platooning with Bogosian in that part-time role. Barring him having a bounce-back year, this is the range he’ll be in price-wise moving forward. 

Fleury is another player on a sub-minimum contract which gives him some value from a depth perspective. He has had a very limited role the past couple of years and at this point, he might be heading for a two-way deal next summer.

Signed through 2024-25

F Michael Eyssimont ($800K, UFA)
F Luke Glendening ($800K, UFA)
D Victor Hedman ($7.875M, UFA)
F Tanner Jeannot ($2.665M, UFA)
G Jonas Johansson ($775K, UFA)
D Nick Perbix ($1.125M, UFA)

The Lightning paid a high price at the trade deadline to land Jeannot and they weren’t exactly rewarded for their investment. He’s poised to have an important role this season and if he can get close to his 2021-22 performance, he could be in line for a decent-sized raise with the premium power forwards typically get. 

Eyssimont opted to take some job security over testing the open market in the summer, understandable considering he was a waiver claim last year. If he can secure a full-time spot with Tampa Bay, he could set himself up for a small bump, even if he stays on the fourth line. 

Glendening is basically a faceoff specialist who can kill penalties at this point of his career. He might have left some money on the table to sign with Tampa Bay but his value is going to be limited moving forward.

The same can’t be said for Hedman. While he couldn’t match his career-best 85 points from 2021-22, he still produced at better than a 50-point pace while averaging nearly 24 minutes a night. While he’ll be 34 when his next contract starts (turning 35 early the following season), he should still be capable of covering 20 minutes a night while playing in all situations. A small pay cut might be needed but he’ll have plenty of interest if he gets to the open market. 

Perbix had a nice rookie season after being a college free agent signing.  He’ll be tasked with covering a regular role on the third pairing and if he can hold that down for two years, he’ll hit the market in his prime (at 27) which could allow him to possibly double this AAV at that time.

Johansson was a bit of a curious signing to be Tampa Bay’s backup given his lack of NHL success but keeping the cost as low as possible (in this case, it couldn’t be lower) was a priority. Now that he’ll be thrust into the number one role for a couple of months, this will be his chance to show the league that he’s a capable netminder at the top level. 

A good showing in this stretch — even though it’s not his free agent year — might be enough to allow him to push for a seven-figure AAV next time out.

Signed through 2025-26

D Darren Raddysh ($762.5K in 2023-24, $975K in 2024-25 and 2025-26)
F Conor Sheary ($2M, UFA)

Sheary comes over from Washington after two consecutive seasons of being a capable secondary scorer. The risk here is relatively low for the Lightning as if he even produces 30-35 points, they should get a good return on this deal.

Raddysh didn’t play a lot during the regular season but logged more than 25 minutes a game in the playoffs, giving him enough leverage to get a two-year, one-way extension back in June, a pretty good outcome for someone who has cleared waivers in each of the last two training camps. 

That shouldn’t be the case this time around and as a capable producer in the minors, this could be a team-friendly deal if he’s able to become a secondary point provider from the back end.

Signed through 2026-27 or longer

D Erik Cernak ($5.2M through 2030-31)
F Anthony Cirelli ($6.25M through 2030-31)
F Brandon Hagel ($1.5M in 2023-24, $6.5M from 2024-25 through 2031-32)
F Nikita Kucherov ($9.5M through 2026-27)
F Nick Paul ($3.15M through 2028-29)
F Brayden Point ($9.5M through 2029-30)
D Mikhail Sergachev ($8.5M through 2030-31)
G Andrei Vasilevskiy ($9.5M through 2027-28)

Kucherov is about as consistent as they come, averaging better than a point per game in each of his last six seasons while being a premier playmaker. Had he tested free agency back in 2019 when he was eligible to, it’s fair to suggest he’d have landed a bigger deal than this one. He might slow down a bit in the final year or two but even if so, they’ve had enough value on this contract to make up for it. 

His deal basically represented the ceiling for Point’s contract when it was completed back in 2021. He’s on the smaller side for a number one center but has twice surpassed 40 goals and 90 points. As long as he’s putting up those numbers, they’ll do fine with this contract.

Cirelli’s deal was one of three early extensions signed last summer, one that looks to be a bit above market based on the year he had. He’s a quality two-way middleman but they’ll be relying on him to become more productive to live up to this deal. Still just 26, there’s time for that to happen. 

Paul’s extension was an unexpected one with a presumed rental player landing a seven-year agreement last year. He’s now had back-to-back 32-point seasons which isn’t bad but with their cap constraints, they’re likely hoping for a bit more production to justify the price tag. Hagel has fit in quite well after being acquired from Chicago and is coming off a career year that saw him score 30 goals, giving them a fantastic return on his current contract. 

That led to an extension that shows that the Lightning believe he has it in him to continue to produce at that level. That will need to happen for them to do well with that contract.

Sergachev had shown steady improvement over his first few years with the Lightning but found another level last season, putting himself in the mix for being considered as their number one defender. That made the decision to extend him a year early last summer look like a smart one. If this is Sergachev’s level moving forward, this will be a team-friendly agreement in a hurry. 

Cernak also got extended last summer, a move that doesn’t look great at this point. He’s a capable defender on the second pairing and does well for them but he’s the style of player that shouldn’t cost that much to have in that spot on the depth chart. 

Had they waited until this summer to sign him, it’s unlikely that the deal would have cost as much as it does now. It’s not a terrible contract but given their constraints, any above-market agreement is going to hurt them.

Vasilevskiy has been one of the top goalies in the league for several years now so it’s no surprise that he’s near the top of the NHL in cost for a netminder. As long as he plays at a Vezina-caliber level, they’ll do fine this deal. It will never be a below-market contract (especially with how the goalie market has changed lately) but he’s worth the premium price tag.

Buyouts

F Vincent Lecavalier ($1.762M through 2026-27, cap-exempt)

Retained salary transactions

F Pat Maroon ($200K in 2023-24)

Best value: Hagel (for this season)
Worst value: Cernak

Looking ahead

Tampa Bay’s biggest rival over the years hasn’t been a who but rather a what. It hasn’t been a specific team but rather the salary cap itself. That isn’t changing anytime soon.

For this season, they’ll be capped by LTIR which won’t allow them to bank any in-season room and once injuries hit, they’re a team that’s likely to have to play short for a game to access the cap-exempt emergency recalls once Vasilevskiy returns. Adding to a roster in that situation at the trade deadline will be difficult.

They presently have over $76M in commitments for 2024-25 already to just 16 players, none of which are named Stamkos. Re-signing the captain will be difficult without clearing out money first. 

Re-upping with Hedman a year later will basically eat up their extra flexibility that summer as well. Basically, expect the same old refrain for the Lightning when it comes to the salary cap for the foreseeable future.