Sam Honzek’s numbers: How often do similar producers turn into impact NHL players?

Let’s just be blunt here. Honzek’s D+1 season was a nightmare across the board. After a superb draft year that saw him post a 1.3 point per game rate in the WHL as an 18-year-old, Honzek’s production came crashing down in his D+1. For a player selected in the top half of the first round, especially as one of the older players in the draft, the expectation is that they should dominate the junior ranks in their D+1. Instead, Honzek floundered and finished under a point per game and sixth on his team in scoring. Injuries or not, his D+1 was a big-time red flag.

This past season, Honzek made the jump to the AHL after getting a few games in the NHL, and the production was once again underwhelming. His 21 points in 52 AHL games as a 20-year-old is far from terrible, but it isn’t exactly impressive either. Among AHL rookies, Honzek finished 59th in scoring, behind multiple younger players and late-round draft selections. Again, injuries played a role, as did his role in the Calgary Wranglers’ lineup, but the bottom line is his production was below what you’d expect from a top 16 selection.

Breaking down the historical numbers of D+1 forwards in the CHL

Honzek’s poor D+1 production in junior got me thinking, how many similar players over the years have seen similar fall-offs in junior, and how often did they turn things around and become impact players in the NHL? Let’s dive into it.

For this exercise, I went all the way back to the 2000 draft to find every forward drafted out of the CHL between 2000 and 2024 in the 10 to 16 range. From here, I look at how many of these forward returned to junior, and finally, how many saw a decrease in production. Here’s a look at the findings.

• In total, 44 forwards have been selected out of the CHL in the 10–16 range between 2000 and 2024.

• Of these 44 forwards, 40 of them returned to the CHL for their D+1 season. Three went straight to the NHL/AHL (Cole Perfetti, Zach Benson, and Dustin Brown). One went to Europe (Jakub Klepis)

How often do D+1 forwards see a drop in production in the CHL?

This is where it starts to get interesting. Of the 40 forwards selected out of the CHL in the 10–16 range who returned to junior, I took a look at each one to see how their production looked in their D+1 season.

In total, 37 of the forwards saw an increase in their CHL production in their D+1 season. Seven of them—including Honzek—saw a decrease in their CHL production in their D+1 season. There are numerous reasons a player could see a drop in production in the CHL—injuries, poor roster, etc.—but the bottom line is just seven of 40 eligible players saw a decrease. In other words, it’s quite rare.

Below are the seven players who saw a decrease in production, ranked by PPG in their D+1.

Some obvious findings stand out right away. The clear outliers here are Seth Jarvis and Jake DeBrusk. They’re the only two names who have gone on to have careers in the NHL as top-six players. Jarvis actually saw the largest D+1 drop off of anyone, yet he turned out perfectly fine. No reason to worry about Honzek in that case, right? Not so fast.

For one, Jarvis’ D+1 season was held in the shortened COVID year in the WHL, where his team played just 24 games. Secondly, his D+0 was superb with 98 points in 58 games on a loaded Portland Winterhawks roster that went 45–11–7. During his D+1 season, the Winterhawks went just 13–8–3. Then there’s the fact that Jarvis followed up his subpar D+1 season by posting 40 points in 68 games in the NHL in his D+2. In other words, he immediately showed his D+1 production was an outlier.

DeBrusk, meanwhile, saw a minimal drop from 1.13 points per game to 1.06. He also spent his D+1 season split between two different WHL teams and started the year on a Swift Current Broncos team that went 24–28–10 that year. Just like Jarvis, he turned around and had a solid D+2 season by posting 49 points in the AHL. The next year, he posted 43 points in the NHL.

After Jarvis, Honzek saw the largest decrease in production in his D+1 season. On top of that, his 0.94 points per game ranks 5th worst among the seven players who experienced drop-offs, ahead of only Zack Kassian and Radek Faksa. Those three are also the only players who dropped off so far that they fell below a point per game rate. Not exactly a great group to be a part of.

Outside of Jarvis and DeBrusk, none of the other players went on to be anything more than depth players in the NHL. What we can take from this is that anytime a player saw a drop off in their D+1 production, it’s their D+2 bounce back that was a clear indicator if their struggles were an outlier or cause for concern.

Jarvis and DeBrusk immediately bounced back in the pros, Honzek not so much. Credit where it’s due, the likes of Steve Bernier, Logan Brown, Zack Kassian, and Radek Faksa all returned to the CHL while Honzek played AHL hockey in his D+2 season. The issue is Honzek’s AHL production simply wasn’t very good and did nothing to erase the memory of his D+1 struggles.

How often do D+1 forwards produce below a point per game in the CHL?

So how about looking at every single forward drafted out of the CHL in the 10–16 range, regardless of whether they experienced a drop off in production in their D+1? Instead, I took a look at every forward who posted a point per game rate under 1.0 in their D+1 season in the CHL. In total, six of the 40 players who returned to the CHL failed to produce at a point per game rate in their D+1. Here’s the list, ranked by D+1 PPG.

The good news? Honzek is ahead of this group as the closest player to a point per game rate. The bad news? It’s not exactly a murderers’ row of names. In fact, pretty much every name on this list never became more than a third-line player at best.

The bottom line is that forwards who return to the CHL in their D+1 season and see their production finish at below a PPG pretty much never become impact NHL players. The best case has been a bottom-six forward for a handful of seasons, like Brandon Sutter, Kassian, and Faksa. The worst case is a total bust like Colton Gillies or Samuel Morin, who barely even sniff regular NHL action.

The best outcome was clearly Sutter, who became a very solid third-line centre in the NHL for a few seasons. However, his case is very much like Jarvis and DeBrusk above. The very next season, in his D+2, he played 54 NHL games and posted a 0.54 PPG rate in the AHL. By his D+3 season, he was a full-time NHLer who put up 40 points for the Carolina Hurricanes. For comparison, Honzek played five NHL games and posted a 0.4 PPG rate in the AHL in his D+2. His D+3 is currently TBD, but the odds of him taking a Sutter-like jump to the NHL seem slim.

The odds aren’t in his favour

Look, Honzek is still just 20 years old and has already spent a full season in the AHL. Based on that fact alone, it’s way too early to count him out. However, the fact remains that his production in his D+1 and D+2 has fallen well short of expectations. History has shown that players drafted in similar spots who see a similar dip in production almost never become impact NHL players. If they do, they do it by immediately bouncing back in their D+2. Something Honzek did not do.

He may not have to salvage his career just yet, but the clock is ticking for Honzek to prove the Flames made a good choice picking him as the 16th-best player in the 2023 draft.