Senators’ fatal flaw that will doom them in 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs

After suffering a minor injury while playing for Team USA at the 4 Nations Face-Off, Tkachuk went down with an upper-body ailment against the Penguins on March 30. He’s missed each of the team’s last eight tilts, but will return for game No. 82 against the Carolina Hurricanes on Thursday night.

“It’s just going to be nice to finish off the regular season, finish off the grind that we’ve put ourselves through,” Tkachuk said following the morning skate, per NHL.com’s Callum Fraser. “I’ve been feeling great. Started ramping it up this week and been feeling really good — no issues, no problems. I think it’s important to get a game in, get some touches.”

Despite his absence, Tkachuk leads the Senators with 29 goals; he’s managed 55 points in 71 games, which is third on the team behind Tim Stutzle and Drake Batherson. He’s without a doubt the team’s most important player, and they’ll need him to be 100 percent healthy if they hope to go on a run in the Eastern Conference. Based on the 25-year-old’s comments, that does seem to be the case.

“It’s not going to be a feel-it-out, ease-it-out type of game,” Tkachuk said. “I want to make sure that I’m 100 percent right. I’m going to play 100 percent tonight.”

Even with their leader healthy, Ottawa is going into a series against a goaltender that is better than any Toronto has had in recent memory in Anthony Stolarz. After winning a Stanley Cup as the Florida Panthers’ backup in 2024, he’s managed an excellent 2.14 goals-against average and .926 save percentage this season.

He’s going to be dialled in between the pipes, and the hope in Canada’s capital is that Linus Ullmark will be able to keep up, and potentially outduel him in the series. Still, the Senators’ fatal flaw going into the series — and the playoffs in general — is a concerning lack of goal scoring.

Senators’ inability to score could be their fatal flaw vs. Leafs

If Ottawa is going to beat Toronto, a team that knows this is probably the last dance for the ‘Core Four,’ they’re going to need to score goals. In much more convincing fashion than they’ve done in the regular season.

Through 81 games in 2024-25, the Senators are averaging 2.90 goals per game. Although missing the team’s best offensive player for weeks hurts, it’s a problem that has persisted throughout the campaign. Ottawa is 21st in the league in goals scored. Only one playoff team has scored less goals per game, and that’s a Minnesota Wild squad that was without Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek for long stretches this season.

While that is concerning enough on its own, what’s also not ideal from the Sens’ perspective is the fact that the Leafs are 10th league-wide in goals against. They’re allowing just 2.79 goals per contest, and block a ton of shots as well. Adding Chris Tanev to the equation was massive, and both Stolarz and Joseph Woll have provided excellent goaltending for the most part in 2024-25.

It boils down to the fact that the Senators have trouble scoring goals and are going up against one of the stingiest defensive teams in the National Hockey League. That’s not a good combination at all for Ottawa.

Exacerbating things is the Sens’ penalty kill, which is working at just a 77.9 percent clip. That’s not great, and good for 19th in the NHL. We all know the firepower the Maple Leafs have up front, and it’s helped put together the league’s seventh best powerplay unit.

Overall, it’s not a great matchup for the Senators. While it’s probably better than a Round 1 date against the Panthers or Lightning — the two teams that have come out of the East in each of the last five seasons — it’s going to be a tough series. Ullmark is going to need to stand on his head, Tkachuk will need to be healthy and producing, and the secondary scoring absolutely has to chip in. Even that might not be enough.

And if Ottawa is somehow able to upset Toronto, it’ll be the winner of Florida or Tampa Bay waiting in Round 2. It’s a difficult path, but after seven years without playoff puck, the fanbase in Ottawa will be thrilled to be playing meaningful hockey in April again. No matter how it finishes, the Battle of Ontario promises to be electric in 2025.