Senators Shane Pinto Primed for a Big Breakout in 2025-26

According to Dobber Prospects’ writer Chris Kane, average-sized forwards with at least 200 games under their belt and a strong second-half of the season are primed for a breakout, and Pinto checks off both categories. From Jan. 1 to April 17, 2025, he recorded 28 points in 42 games, giving him a 54-point pace, and finished the season with 210 career NHL games. If he were to carry that into 2025-26, he’d be right on track to match Fisher’s career best.

However, Kane admits that Pinto’s deployment may hold him back, as he’s unlikely to supplant Tim Stutzle on the top line or Dylan Cozens on the second. However, Pinto has done more with less, and a 50-point season seems all but guaranteed for this season. At the very least, he’s ready to become the Senators’ next great third-liner. Whether he surpasses that, though, is still up for debate.

Optimistic but Realistic: Tomas Hertl

Despite playing 200 career games, Pinto has yet to play two full seasons back-to-back. That’s severely limited his momentum, so it’s anyone’s guess as to how high he could climb if given the chance. Already, he looks raring to go, scoring twice in two preseason games, including one overtime game-winner. So maybe his breakout potential might be a little higher than last season suggests.

Pinto broke into the NHL at 20 years old, and over his first five seasons, he recorded 107 points, giving him a career average of 0.51 points per game (P/G), or a 42-point pace over 82 games per season. He also has 51 career goals for an average of 0.24 goals per game or 20 goals per full season. Additionally, he’s averaged 57 blocks and 40 giveaways per full season, and kept a 50.1 faceoff win percentage (FOW%) while taking over 1,000 faceoffs, all while averaging 16:39 of ice time.

Tomas Hertl also broke into the NHL at 20 years old, and over his first five seasons, he recorded 170 points in 324 games, giving him a 0.53 P/G. Over an 82-game season, that averaged to 42.5 points. His 81 goals also gave him an average of 20 goals per 82-game season. Additionally, he averaged 57 blocks and 45 giveaways per full season, and kept a 52 FOW% while taking over 500 faceoffs, all while averaging 16:15 of ice time.

The first five seasons of Pinto and Hertl are, honestly, eerily similar. Both players had middling ice time and produced well in their given roles, but struggled with significant setbacks. Hertl even had a similar finish to his fifth season, finishing with 24 points in 43 games starting on Jan. 2, 2018. But in Hertl’s sixth season, he jumped out of the gate, scoring 35 goals and 74 points with the San Jose Sharks. Now, he’s a consistent 60-point player and a reliable middle-six contributor on some very strong teams.

The one big issue is deployment. Hertl was moved over to the wing on the second line in 2018-19, boosting his ice time by a full minute, and alongside Logan Couture and Timo Meier, he thrived. He pushed Couture out of the centre dot and led the team with 609 faceoff wins. Couture barely took that amount all season. Pinto won’t have as easy a chance getting second-line minutes unless he can push Cozens to the wing. It’s not impossible, and if he convinces his coach to give him a bigger role, he could easily be a 30-goal, 60-point player for the Senators, which is what Josh Norris was supposed to be but never panned out.

Best-Case Scenario: Dylan Larkin

Pinto’s best performance to date arguably came last summer at the 2025 World Championship, where he tied for third in scoring with two goals and 10 points in eight games on Team USA and was a big part in helping the team claim a gold medal for the first time since 1933. It was a big reason why the Americans invited him back for their Olympic training camp, and while he’s still considered a long shot to make the final roster, his production at the World Championship could imply a big season is coming for him in 2025-26.

Could that mean a Dylan Larkin-type breakout is coming? Back in 2016-17, Larkin joined the Americans at the World Championship after the Detroit Red Wings were eliminated from the playoffs. At that tournament, he finished second on the team with two goals and 10 points in eight games. Then, in 2017-18, he finally had his big breakout season that the Red Wings had been waiting for, doubling his previous season’s point total from 32 to 63. He took his game to the next level in 2018-19, scoring 32 goals and putting up 73 points, and since then, he has hardly looked back, regularly putting up 70-plus points.

Unlike Hertl, Pinto and Larkin have far fewer similarities. Larkin’s international breakout came in his third World Championship tournament while he was still just 20 years old, while the 24-year-old Pinto was only in his second season. Larkin also only had two seasons under his belt before taking off, and has been Detroit’s top-line centre for most of the last decade, playing over 20 minutes a night. Pinto almost certainly will never challenge Stutzle for the top job in Ottawa.

Still, Pinto’s impressive World Championship totals do indicate a big breakout could be coming. Several players, including Logan Cooley, Conor Garland, Clayton Keller, and Johnny Gaudreau, all turned strong international performances into NHL success. While a 70-point player is likely out of the cards for Pinto, a single 70-point season isn’t too unfathomable.

Whatever happens, the Senators will be looking for Pinto to take a step forward this season. He’s proven to be a highly effective player and someone Ottawa can rely on as they build a Stanley Cup competitor. But whether he becomes a Fisher, a Hertl, or maybe even a Larkin is now totally up to him.