Seth Jarvis’ Early Success Solidifies His Top-Six Place

Seth Jarvis has been a pleasant addition to the Carolina Hurricanes throughout his two years in the NHL. This year is no different. And it really has been a step forward. The young, energetic Canadian forward has his best years ahead of him but is showing he is ready to help the team now.

The Carolina Hurricanes Select Seth Jarvis

During the 2019 NHL Entry Draft, the Toronto Maple Leafs were in a cap crunch. Veteran forward Patrick Marleau had been a decent player for the otherwise fairly young team but was looking a little like dead weight at this point. Seeing an opportunity, the Hurricanes stepped in and took Marleau from the Maple Leafs in exchange for a 2020 top-ten protected first-round pick and seventh-round pick.

Fast forward to 2020 and the Hurricanes ended up with about as good of a pick you could ask for in a top-ten protected deal (assuming it didn’t slide to the following year when the protection is gone). Stepping up to make the 13th overall selection in 2020, the Hurricanes selected Seth Jarvis from the Portland Winterhawks of the WHL. And what a great pick he has been.

The 2020 NHL Draft Class

The 2020 Draft had a few notable names including Alexis Lafreniere, Tim Stutzle, Yaroslav Askarov, Quinton Byfield, and Jake Sanderson. Out of all players in that draft, Jarvis is fifth in NHL games played at 160, points with 88 and goals with 35. His points total has him above other players including Byfield, Anton Lundell, Cole Perfetti, Alexander Holtz and Jack Quinn, all of whom were selected before Jarvis. Hindsight is always 20/20 and player development is rarely linear, so this is not a knock on any of those players mentioned. Nor is it to say none of them will have more success than Jarvis necessarily down the road. But it does show how good of a pick Jarvis was for Carolina at 13. And this is on a team that is in a “win-now” mode with a lot of depth.

Past Seasons

Jarvis started his draft plus one year back in Portland with the Winterhawks and spent some time with the Chicago Wolves in the AHL. The 2021-22 season was his first taste of the NHL with 68 games played. He had a great rookie year with 17 goals and 40 points. Jarvis fit in very well with the speedy Hurricanes. Even though he was drafted as a centre, he spent time on the wing and had opportunities to play top-line minutes with Sebastian Aho. While not the biggest player, Jarvis is not afraid to play the body. He is responsible at both ends of the ice, has good vision, forechecks relentlessly and can find the back of the net at times. A true Rod Brind’Amour type player.

The Sophomore Slump

Following Seth Jarvis‘ early success, he did experience a sophomore slump in the 2022-23 season. He remained healthy and played in all 82 games for the Hurricanes, but only put up 14 goals and 39 points. It seemed like this was largely due to some bad puck luck. He was third on the team in expected goals with 25.2 but only had 14 actual goals. His goals scored above expected was the worst on the team at -11.2. Likewise, his expected goal differential was 38.3 while his actual goal differential was 20. He spent time on multiple lines but the line of Jarvis, Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov finished second in the league for forward lines playing at least 100 minutes in expected goals percentage.

A Playoff Bump

The playoffs were a better story for Jarvis. In 15 games played, Jarvis scored five goals with five assists. This included two power play goals, one shorthanded goal, and one game-winning goal. For all Hurricanes players, he finished third in points and second in goals and power-play goals during the playoffs. He led the Hurricanes in most categories including expected goals, expected goals per 60 minutes, and expected goals percentage while finishing second in Corsi and Fenwick. One big difference in the playoffs versus the regular season for Jarvis was that his conversion ability (or maybe luck) took a more positive turn. His goals scored above expected went to -1.6 while his expected goal differential of 9.9 was less than his actual goal differential of 13.

Seth Jarvis’ Success This Season

At only 21 years old, Jarvis was certainly looking for a rebound year this season. One notable off-season change to Jarvis was his physical stature. He committed to increasing his strength and size in the offseason. In his draft year, he was listed as 5′ 10″ and 172 lbs. ESPN has him listed this season as 5′ 10″ and 184 lbs. while NHL.com has him at 175 lbs. But on the ice, he appears noticeably bigger. And more importantly, noticeably stronger. While size can be game-changing, hockey is a unique sport where you want size and strength, but not at the expense of speed and mobility.

Statistics Paint the Picture

Statistically, Jarvis has started the season like a shot out of a cannon. In ten games so far, Jarvis has four goals and five assists. His nine points have him tied for second on the team while his 28 shots are second best. Meanwhile, his three power play goals leads the team and is tied for second in the league. This is a notable improvement as last year he did not score any and should be a huge help to the team’s power play. His 5.1 expected goals is tied for eighth in the league and leads all Hurricanes players. Meanwhile, the line of Jarvis, Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Stefan Noesen had 6.71 goals for per 60 minutes. This is tied for second in the league for all offensive lines playing at least thirty minutes.

With another year of experience and a little physical growth, Jarvis is showing that he is an effective top-six forward for Carolina. He plays the style the Canes look for and his team-leading 15 hits shows that he is not afraid to engage physically. Defensively, he leads the team in takeaways with eight and has 3.09 expected goals against but a positive three-goal differential. He has the speed, he has the skill, and he has the heart. Now he is showing that he has a knack for power play success. If Carolina has success this year, Jarvis will be a big reason.

Looking at the Future

While Seth Jarvis’ success in the past and present have been exciting to watch, he still has room to grow. Already playing top-line minutes with Sebastian Aho mixed with power play and penalty kill time, Jarvis is an effective all-around player with big responsibilities. He will be due a big pay raise from his entry-level contract after this season. But he has earned it. Among a group of relatively young forwards including Svechnikov, Kotkaniemi and Martin Necas, look for Jarvis to be a big top-six forward for the Hurricanes for the foreseeable future.