Sharks’ Flaws Being Covered up by Celebrini & Askarov

Celebrini is second in the NHL in points and tied for first in assists. When he scores, it tends to come in waves — his 12 multi-point games are tied for the fourth-highest mark in the league. His ability to constantly anticipate plays gives him control of just about any offensive situation. Combine that with his incredible passing precision, shooting skill and zone entry ability, and his dominance is almost singlehandedly swinging the Sharks’ offense in a positive direction. He has 14 more points than anyone else on the Sharks, and the player comfortably in second — Will Smith — has been Celebrini’s linemate in almost every game this season.

Celebrini’s success this season pretty much directly corresponds with San Jose’s. The Sharks are 14-7-1 when Celebrini registers at least one point, and 0-7-2 when he doesn’t. The organization is very happy to have such a great player on their roster, but they know that asking a teenager to carry this much is a huge ask and that he probably won’t be able to do so forever.

Askarov Bailing Out Sharks’ Defense

The Sharks’ offensive struggles do not exist in a vacuum. With their offense struggling, their defense gets overwhelmed and has no choice but to play on their heels. But like the offense, the defense has a single player keeping them afloat in Askarov.

In his first season as a full-time NHL goalie, Askarov’s workload is in the 97th percentile of all netminders in the league. His total of high-danger chances faced is in the 77th percentile while his low-danger chances faced is only in the 31st percentile. Across the entire season, he is averaging 26.9 saves per game, well above the league average of 23.8. This is a ridiculous amount for any goalie to handle, let alone a 23-year-old in his first full NHL season.

Despite all that, he’s stepped up throughout the season, shaking off a rough start to play like the goalie the Sharks hoped he would be when they traded for him in the 2024 offseason. In his last 13 games, he has a 9-4-0 record with a 2.20 goals-against average and a .928 save percentage. After their first few games, the Sharks were allowing nearly five goals a night. They’re now down to allowing 3.29 goals per game, 10th-worst in the league — which isn’t bad considering the underlying numbers say they should probably be dead last, or at least very close to it.

Askarov is right in the center of that disparity. He consistently turns in stellar performances to help the Sharks hold leads or stay in games. At the same time, the weaknesses of San Jose’s defense mean he’s bound to collapse under that pressure from time to time, such as a recent loss to the Washington Capitals in which he allowed four goals in less than 18 minutes. The defense around him needs to improve, because if it doesn’t, those kinds of losses will keep happening.

Celebrini and Askarov Headline Sharks’ Future

If the Sharks can derive a positive from the concerning underlying numbers, it’s that they prove just how good Celebrini and Askarov are. Both of them are showing they are worthy of the hype they garnered, well before their presumed primes. While they still have a relatively small sample size, the evidence suggests the Sharks have a number-one center and a starting goaltender to build around. Their next step is to flesh out the rest of the team. They need to add more players who can strengthen the offense around Celebrini and bolster the defense so that Askarov doesn’t face a barrage of shots every game. It’s at that point they’ll turn into true contenders, with both the record and the advanced statistics to back it up.

Data courtesy of MoneyPuck, Hockey Reference, and StatMuse. Statistics are accurate as of Dec. 9.