Should the Edmonton Oilers target Connor Ingram?

Before entering the program, his numbers had slipped to an .882 SV% and -6.92 GSAx. On August 20, he was cleared to make his NHL return, but the Mammoth have decided to give him a fresh start somewhere else.

“We’ll at some point in time put him through waivers, and through that process, he will either get a chance to play for another NHL team, or he will go to an (American Hockey League) team,” said Armstrong.

What does this mean for the Edmonton Oilers? The quality of Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard as an NHL tandem has been a heavily debated topic in Oil Country over the past couple of years. Stan Bowman hasn’t pulled the trigger on a new acquisition to improve the tandem, but does Ingram’s availability change things?

Bowman publicly stated his intention to go into 2025-26 with Skinner as the starting goalie. Still, an upgrade to the backup position would provide the Oilers with more insurance. Skinner has stretches of elite play, but also tends to go ice-cold for weeks or months. He lost the starting job at points in each of the past two playoff runs.

Regarding goalie stats, I value Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) more than the traditional SV%. The problem with SV% is that it only considers shot volume, not shot quality. While expected goal models aren’t perfect, they consider both volume and quality of shots, giving us more context.

According to Evolving Hockey, Skinner has a respectable GSAx/60 of 0.25  over the past three seasons. This would place him in the top 20 among current NHL starting goalies. There are some caveats, however.

First, while the regular season numbers are solid, his GSAx/60 drops to a spotty 0.03 in his playoff career. Furthermore, the peaks and valleys in his game are so extreme that it would be ideal to have someone dependable to take the reins during the challenging periods, even if Skinner’s numbers grade out as fine. Let’s compare Pickard and Ingram to see if there’s an opportunity for a clear upgrade here.

Calvin Pickard

The Oilers called Pickard up from the AHL back in November of 2023. Jack Campbell was struggling, and Edmonton needed someone to back up Skinner. He filled the role well enough to continue as the team’s number two goalie up to this point, almost two years later.

While Pickard is a battler who makes a lot of big saves, his awkward style and small stature lead to problems. According to NHL EDGE, Pickard’s save percentage on long-range shots last season was .962, a fair bit below the league-average of .970, and his SV% on mid-range shots was .866, while the league average was .887.

Pickard stands at 6’1 “, not particularly big by NHL goalie standards, and he has a low stance that makes him more susceptible to shots up high.

Since his return to the NHL in 2023, Pickard has had a GSAx/60 of -0.05; he allows more goals than expected. While not disastrous by any means, his performance is more on par with a typical NHL backup. He has also benefited from a soft schedule. Last season, 21 of his 31 starts came against non-playoff teams.

To give him some credit, Pickard went 7-1 in the playoffs. He made some huge saves, most notably in a Game 2 overtime win against the Golden Knights, and in Edmonton’s comeback win in Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final. He’s capable, but even during that run, the Oilers gave him terrific support both offensively and defensively. His .886 playoff SV% and -0.28 GSAx were still underwhelming. Most of the wins happened because the Oilers were simply outplaying their opposition, not because Pickard bailed them out.

Connor Ingram

Despite a down year in 2024-25, Ingram possesses a GSAx/60 of 0.21 over the past three seasons, much closer to starter-calibre numbers than Pickard.

Ingram’s numbers aren’t just better than Pickard’s overall; he also has higher upside and more recent experience as an NHL starter. In 2023-24, he played 50 games for the Coyotes, posting a .907 SV% and a GSAx/60 of 0.38. It was a down year for his teammate Karel Vejmelka between the pipes, and Ingram performed admirably while getting a majority of the starts. He’s a guy who can play the backup role, but possesses enough upside to be the guy when called upon. That’s precisely the type of goalie the Oilers could use. 

Ingram has had his mental battles in the past, but if he’s truly in good spirits, there’s no doubt to me that he is a quality NHL goalie. This will be Ingram’s final season of a three-year contract that carries an AAV of $1.95M.

How realistic is an Ingram acquisition?

If Armstrong plans to put Ingram on waivers, he is comfortable letting him go free of charge. The Oilers could fit Ingram on their roster and stay under the salary cap by sending Pickard to the minors, along with one of David Tomasek, Mattias Janmark, or Kasperi Kapanen. They could also trade out a contract to create space. 

Bowman may be happy to give Skinner another shot to be the starting goalie, but he would be wise to acquire someone more equipped to carry the mail during the peaks and valleys in Skinner’s play. Ingram is a good fit for that role, and they can potentially still keep Pickard in the system.

If Ingram goes on waivers, someone will likely claim him before the Oilers can place their claim, as they sit 24th in waiver priority. If they want to make a low-risk, low-cost upgrade, they must be proactive.