Should the Leafs Re-Sign John Tavares? Pros and Cons

Changes are finally coming to the Toronto Maple Leafs. After years and years of being told that this core can win, and almost zero evidence to prove that claim, the Leafs now need a different strategy. 

Mitch Marner is almost certainly going to free agency on July 1, especially given the leaks that have been coming out of his camp. Marner is by far the best player available in free agency and will likely get a significant payday. 

It seems like the Leafs are pretty well set on allowing Marner to walk, but the tougher decision concerns the ex-captain and beloved hometown hero John Tavares. 

Tavares wants to stay

At locker cleanout he was emphatic about his willingness to return as a Leaf next season, expressing optimism that a contract can get done. 

Since then, there have been a couple of big free agent signings that can maybe point us in the direction Tavares can take. On June 4, Brock Nelson signed a contract extension in Colorado. Leafs fans who want JT back, I’m sure, were quite nervous when the contract details were released. Nelson signed a 3-year, $22.5M deal, coming out to an AAV of $7.5M. 

Nelson is a relative comparable to Tavares. They’re both veteran centres, Nelson being 33 and Tavares being 34. Last season, Brock Nelson had 26 goals and 30 assists in 80 games played, while JT had 38 goals and 36 assists in 75 games. Extrapolating out, JT should garner more than Nelson on his next contract, a price that the Leafs probably cannot afford to pay. 

There was another signing that was interesting. Yanni Gourde re-signed in Tampa Bay to a 6-year, $13.98M deal at an AAV of $2.33M. Gourde is 33 and at the tail end of his career, meaning he might even be unlikely to play in the last few years of that deal. However, Tampa Bay elected to give him a longer term in order to get the AAV down. If JT is serious about his willingness to stay in Toronto, this could be an attractive approach for the team. 

What the deal could look like

Say John Tavares could get $8.5M/3 years on the open market for a total contract value of $25.5M. Over a 6-year deal, AAV would be a much more manageable $4.25M, taking Tavares to his 40th birthday. The Leafs would be banking on a bit of long-term pain, albeit mitigated by a cap that is likely to increase significantly, in return for retaining one of the most popular Leafs in the last decade. 

Let’s say JT is willing to sign in Toronto at the $4–6M AAV range. What are the pros and cons of doing that deal to keep Tavares in Toronto? 

Should Toronto do it?

We’ll start with the cons because, spoiler alert, I would sign that contract 101 times out of 100 if I were Brad Treliving. 

The first con is that, frankly, John Tavares hasn’t won much of anything. He’s been in Toronto for seven years and has two series wins to show for it. The next con is that we should have a large-scale change in the organization, and should not try to retain pieces from the era mired with missed expectations. However, I would argue that the pros of re-signing John Tavares far outweigh any negatives. 

John Tavares is an extremely popular Leaf. He shocked the hockey world seven years ago by leaving the team he was drafted by to sign with his childhood favourite. For the first time in many Leafs fans’ lives, a bona fide superstar actually wanted to sign in Toronto. Outside of the playoffs, the burden of which he definitely does not bear alone, John Tavares has certainly lived up to his contract. The fall-off that was predicted when he signed the contract never appeared, and he is still a very competent hockey player. 

He would fit in very nicely in the Leafs organization in the role of the veteran, who understands his role, similar to Max Pacioretty. Having John Tavares as the 3C or a left winger, as he can no longer fill the 2C role consistently, would be a great piece. 

Tavares knows what it means to be a Leaf

Additionally, more than tinkering with the hockey team, what is truly needed for Toronto is a culture shift. The narrative about pressure impacting the players, and not living up to the hype, is frankly loser talk. In his time in Toronto, as captain, and when he graciously stepped aside for Auston Matthews, JT has embodied what it means to play in this city. Toronto desperately needs the story that would be JT taking a hometown discount to stay here. 

If JT were to decide to leave and find more money elsewhere, I don’t think Leafs fans would be upset. He chose to come here, gave some amazing seasons to Toronto, and it didn’t work out. But if he decides to stay, to help his boyhood team win, then we can start building his Legends Row statue right now.