Should the Oilers be worried about Mitch Marner signing in the Pacific Division?

The winds of change are blowing in Toronto, and the first shoe dropped Thursday when the team announced president Brendan Shanahan’s time with the organization was finished.

That followed a thought experiment from Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli about the team maybe trading Auston Matthews, and his colleague Matt Larkin saying defenceman Morgan Rielly is a player who could use a change of scenery.

One shoe that’s expected to drop this summer is the end of the Mitch Marner era, with all signs pointing to the winger, a pending unrestricted free agent, testing the waters in the open market this summer.

He’s due for a payday, according to AFP Analytics, who project him to sign a seven-year, $13-million AAV deal, while Evolving Hockey has him in the same range on a seven-year, $12.69-million AAV deal. Either way, his new deal looks like it will pay him more than the $10.9-million he made annually on his deal with the Maple Leafs.

So which teams could truly be in the mix? Sportsnet’s Ryan Dixon ran through many of them, highlighting some Pacific Division — and Western Conference teams — in the Los Angeles Kings, Anaheim Ducks, Utah Mammoth, Vegas Golden Knights, Colorado Avalanche and the Chicago Blackhawks.

While there’s due criticism over Marner’s perceived inability to come through when it matters most, he’s appeared in 50 playoff games over the last six years, the length of his contract, scoring eight goals and 46 points in them, for a .92 point-per-game pace. There’s only nine other forwards who have played as many games with such a point-per-game pace over that time, led by Connor McDavid (1.74), Leon Draisaitl (1.52), Nathan MacKinnon (1.37), Mikko Rantanen (1.34), Nikita Kucherov (1.26), Brad Marchand (1.08), Brayden Point (1.01), Sebastian Aho (.99) and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (.92).

Marner’s tied for second in points by Leafs forwards in the playoffs over that stretch with Auston Matthews, while William Nylander leads them by just one point.

I don’t buy the narrative that Marner isn’t a player who shows up in big moments and look no further than his assist on Connor McDavid’s Golden Goal at the 4-Nations Face-Off to see why. The gripes are real — I get that — but there’s no denying he’s one of the games elite playmakers.

It all begs the question: Should the Oilers be worried about Mitch Marner signing in the Pacific Division?

In my eyes, it’s an obvious yes, especially when it comes to the thought of the Kings or Golden Knights finding ways to land him.

Here’s some of what Dixon wrote about those two clubs:

The Kings

The need for scoring — and bringing in players who can help with that — has been an organizational theme in L.A. for 15 years. In 2012, the club made a swap with Columbus to acquire Jeff Carter; two years later, L.A. went back to the Columbus well to snag Marian Gaborik, who wound up leading the playoffs in goals in 2014 as L.A. won its second title in three years…

The bones of this L.A. squad may not be quite as sturdy as those championship-level teams from 2012 and 2014, but there’s no doubt the Kings are a team that could hit a whole other level with an injection of raw talent.

From Marner’s perspective, L.A. would seem to be as appealing a fit as any team we’ll touch on today. You can see the potential for deep playoff runs while your family lives a fantastic California life.

Expect the Kings to be among the first to call Marner’s camp.

The Golden Knights

As always, the Knights must be mentioned any time a high-profile player can be had. Add to that Vegas’ need for help on the wing and you start to wonder if there’s a perfect marriage here.

The Knights are the first team we’ve mentioned that would have to massage the roster a bit to create some space for Marner, but we know anything is in play when this club gets ruthless. If that means moving an “Original Misfit” like William Karlsson to clear nearly $6 million in cap space, then that’s what it takes.

The fact Vegas has won one playoff series in two years since claiming the 2023 Cup means hunger levels will be extra high in the desert.

Watch out.

The reasoning is sound for either club. Ken Holland has taken over the reigns of the Kings, and he’s been known to take big swings if the stars align, and as Dixon mentioned about the Golden Knights, they always find a way to land big name players.

L.A. enters the offseason with nearly $24-million in space without any major tickets due that would keep them in the way of offering Marner a long-term deal. Vegas, entering with just over $9.6-million, would have to maneuver their salary cap situation, but that’s something the team has never been shy to do before.