Should the Oilers start Stuart Skinner or Calvin Pickard in Game 4 of Stanley Cup Final?

Should Stuart Skinner start?

Skinner’s Game 3 was undoubtedly bad, but the team was bad in front of him, and you could realistically pin one or two goals on him at most. That said, the first goal just 56 seconds in deflated the Oilers and didn’t give them a chance to win.

There is one main argument as to why Skinner should play in Game 4 and beyond, and it’s the fact that he tends to be better as the series moves along, especially in Game 4s. Over his career, Skinner has played in seven Game 4s. 

In those seven games, Skinner has saved 169 of 177 shots for a .955 save percentage. It’s even more impressive considering he was pulled from his first Game 4 in 2023 after allowing three goals on 11 shots. In his last six Game 4s, Skinner has a .970 save percentage, saving 161 of 166 shots.

Of course, “Mr. Game 4” doesn’t really matter in the grand scheme of things because it’s a small sample size, but Skinner tends to get better as the series moves along. In 27 games from Game 1 to Game 3, Skinner has faced 737 shots, saving just 645 of them for an .875 save percentage. That’s juxtaposed to 21 games from Game 4 to Game 7, where Skinner has saved 470 of 510 shots for a .922 save percentage.

It’s not just Skinner that gets better, but the Oilers as a whole improve drastically after Game 3. Since Skinner’s first postseason in 2023, the Oilers are 18-3 in Games 4-7 when Skinner starts. Two of those losses came against the Golden Knights in the second round of the 2023 postseason, and another one was Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals.

If the Oilers proceed with Skinner moving forward, which seems likely, he can’t be allowing early goals like he did in Games 2 and 3, as the Oilers just get demotivated. It’s also worth noting that the past doesn’t dictate the future. As encouraging as these stats are, Thursday’s game could be another blowout if things don’t start well for the Oilers.

What about Calvin Pickard?

There’s also a valid argument for the Oilers to turn to Calvin Pickard in Game 4. Simply put, Thursday’s game is a must-win for the Oilers, as losing that game means they’re down 3-1 in the series. They can’t allow Florida three opportunities to close out the game.

Monday was one of Skinner’s worst games of the postseason, up there with Games 1 and 2 of the Los Angeles Kings series. The Oilers had a short leash for him in that series, and it could be even shorter in the Stanley Cup Finals.

Despite Pickard’s save percentage of .888 being lower than Skinner’s .894, Pickard doesn’t allow weak goals often. You can count on him to make big saves, and the Oilers tend to play better in front of him because he hasn’t stolen a postseason game like Skinner has.

It was also Pickard’s crease after Game 2 of the first round, and Pickard is a big reason why the Oilers are even in the Stanley Cup Finals, as he went 6-0 until he was injured in Game 2 of the second round.

So, who do the Oilers go with?

Coming into this article, I was on the side of “Oilers should go with Pickard”, but after doing research on Skinner’s performance in Games 4-7, I think they have to go with Skinner.

Without a doubt, Skinner didn’t have a great game on Monday, and the team performed poorly in front of him after the first goal. That said, Skinner has proven to get better as the series goes along, so have the Oilers.

On the surface level, his .866 save percentage isn’t great, and he does need to be better, but Skinner was a big reason why the Oilers were even in a position to go up 2-0 in the series.

Let’s just hope he has one of his patented Game 4s.