Stars Need Jake Oettinger to Be Their X-Factor to Get Past the Oilers

In these first two series, Oettinger completely shut down the Colorado Avalanche and the Winnipeg Jets, who ranked in the top five in goals per game in the regular season. Now, he and the Stars will be tasked with trying to shut down the Oilers, who are averaging the most goals per game (4.03) in the playoffs through two rounds.

While this may sound concerning for the Stars, who are allowing the most expected goals against per game in the playoffs, the Oilers faced two struggling goaltenders: Adin Hill of the Vegas Golden Knights and Darcy Kuemper of the Los Angeles Kings. Both rank among the bottom three goalies in medium-danger save percentage.

Throughout the first two rounds, Oettinger ranks fourth among goalies to make five starts in medium-danger saves and has yet to allow an easy goal on a low-danger shot. Oettinger has been making teams work for every goal they score, and that must continue if the Stars have a chance to match up with the Oilers, who have much better underlying numbers than the Stars.

An Advantage For the Oilers That Will Put Pressure on Oettinger

Throughout the regular season, the Stars ranked in the bottom half of the NHL in botched retrievals per 60 minutes, while also leading the NHL in retrievals per 60 minutes. This combination graded the Stars as one of the sloppiest breakout teams in the league. The Oilers averaged the second-fewest botched retrievals and had to retrieve the fewest pucks per 60 minutes, making their defensive core one of the best puck-moving groups in the NHL (from ‘Team Pages – DZ Retrivals,’ All Three Zones, 5/20/25).

This difference in puck-moving from both teams’ defensemen will likely create a ton of pressure on Oettinger, and it would not be shocking to see the Stars struggle to match the Oilers’ offensive zone time as they did in the Western Conference Final last season, when the Oilers outshot the Stars in five of the six games.

In addition to not spending much time in their defensive zone, the Oilers have been thriving in the offensive zone, averaging nearly 2.5 more high-danger chances per game than any other team in the playoffs, while the Stars are allowing the most of any team left in the playoffs.

This could be another primary concern for the Stars, considering Oettinger finished the regular season with minus-11.47 high-danger saves above expected, the third-worst among goalies to play 1,000 minutes. Oettinger has been much better in this area in the playoffs, having the fifth-most high-danger saves above expected among goalies to make five starts.

The Stars are the only team remaining in the playoffs that have lost the scoring chance and expected goal battle through their first two series. They are also the only team with a negative goal differential of the four remaining. With the Oilers being an elite puck possession team and offensive talent, Oettinger will have to elevate his game further past the elite level he is already playing at to overcome the Stars’ puck-moving issues and keep his team in this series.

All stats via Natural Stat Trick unless specified.