Statistical Review: Pittsburgh Penguins 4, LA Kings 2

According to Natural Stat Trick, the Kings generated just a 47.94% expected goals-for percentage (xGF%) at 5v5 throughout the game, along with a 44.83% share of high-danger chances for (HDCF%). Analytically, Los Angeles was the stronger team in the second period, posting a 68.41% xGF% at 5v5. However, a minor penalty taken by Quinton Byfield put the Kings on the penalty kill, where Pittsburgh capitalized, swinging the momentum and then quickly tying the game at 2–2.

Individual Impacts

By expected goals (xG), Quinton Byfield led all Kings skaters with 0.85 xG (via MoneyPuck). The eye test supported that metric. He recorded six shots on goal in 18:06 of ice time and generated back-to-back scoring chances in the second period, including a partial breakaway, though he ultimately couldn’t convert.

Byfield centered a line with Kevin Fiala and Joel Armia, which posted a 33.73% xGF% as a unit (via Natural Stat Trick). Fiala (0.39 xG), scored in the first period, and hit the post in the second off a dominant shift from Byfield. He tallied two shots on goal overall.

Armia had a strong start. He stripped a puck in the defensive zone and made a cross-ice feed that set up Fiala’s goal. However, he was largely quiet the rest of the way, generating just 0.06 individual xG overall.

Adrian Kempe ranked second among Kings skaters in individual xG with 0.57. He registered five shots on goal in 18:56 of ice time and nearly scored in the second period on a play set up by Phillip Danault.

LA’s third line of Alex Turcotte, Trevor Moore, and Warren Foegele was statistically their most effective trio on Thursday night. According to Natural Stat Trick, the line posted a team-best 54.54% xGF% and a 60.00% HDCF% share at 5v5.

From the eye test, those numbers held up. Foegele led the charge with five shots on goal and opened the scoring for the Kings. He also had a quality wraparound attempt in the second period but was denied. In the third, Foegele nearly set up Moore for a tap-in chance shortly after a Kings power play expired, but Moore couldn’t get a shot off on the wide-open net. Foegele finished the game with a 0.55 individual xG, per MoneyPuck.

Alex Laferriere (0.28 xG) also had a notable scoring chance in the third period, breaking away shorthanded, but his shot was turned aside—another missed opportunity that reinforced the Kings’ struggle to finish on Thursday.

Among the defensive units, Brian Dumoulin and Drew Doughty were the most effective analytically. The pair posted a 78.6% xGF% in 5v5 play, the highest of any Kings pairing. Doughty registered four shots on goal in 21:50 of ice time, while Dumoulin added one shot and recorded three blocked shots.

In contrast, the Joel Edmundson–Brandt Clarke pairing struggled significantly, managing just a 17.2% xGF%. Edmundson (0.04 xG) was notably beaten in a key foot race during the second period that directly led to Pittsburgh’s game-tying goal.

Anton Forsberg got the start in net for the Kings. According to MoneyPuck, Forsberg posted a 3.166 expected goals against (xGA), meaning he conceded roughly one more goal than expected based on shot quality. The eye test matches that evaluation, as both of Pittsburgh’s opening goals, scored by Evgeni Malkin and Connor Dewar, were chances Forsberg likely wishes he could have back.