Stuart Skinner is showing why the Oilers believed in him

Stuart Skinner deserves his flowers.

Even factoring in his first three games, the Edmonton Oilers’ netminder has been good this postseason. His .910 save percentage is sixth-best in the league. But it’s a bit of a shock just how good he’s been.

I’m not prone to bad takes, and after the Oilers allowed a goal with four-tenths of a second left in the game against the Vegas Golden Knights in Game 3, I had this to say about the Oilers’ netminder in the Instant Reaction.

“The last-second goal needs to be addressed. Did the Oilers’ skaters play that right? Probably not, two players going to the ice is never ideal. But realistically, what the heck was Stuart Skinner doing on that goal? I’m not a mathematician, but that is not how you efficiently cut down an angle. That loss was 100% on Skinner, and he shouldn’t see the crease again this postseason.”

This is wrong on a few fronts, the first being that this goal wasn’t his fault. Skinner could’ve cut down the angle better than he did, but that goal doesn’t go in if Leon Draisaitl doesn’t deflect it in and the Oilers don’t stop playing early.

The bigger error in my takeaway was about Skinner seeing the crease again, which we’ll look at in this article.

Skinner’s insane performances since returning

In Games 1 and 2 against the Los Angeles Kings, Skinner allowed 11 goals on 58 shots for an .810 save percentage. The Oilers elected to play Calvin Pickard for the next game, which turned out to be the next six games as the Oilers’ netminder went 6-0. His performance gave the Oilers a 4-2 series win against the Kings, as well as a 2-0 series lead against the Vegas Golden Knights.

Before that last-second goal, Skinner wasn’t having a poor game according to the eye test. Here’s what I had written before the Golden Knights scored with four-tenths of a second left:

“Stuart Skinner’s start wasn’t necessarily bad. No doubt he’d love the first one back, as he made the initial save, which squeaked out. The second one was tough, as Reilly Smith was given far too much time to move to the centre of the ice. As for the third goal, the Oilers had an awful line change.”

Something changed in Game 4 of that series against the Golden Knights. Skinner saved all 23 shots he faced for his second career postseason shutout. They don’t call him “Mr. Game 4” for nothing. Skinner followed that up with a 24-save shutout in Game 5, as Kasperi Kapanen found the overtime winner to send the Oilers to their third Western Conference Finals in the past four seasons.

Skinner’s Game 1 against the Stars wasn’t great on paper, allowing 22 goals on 27 shots. Once again,  it was the team collapsing in front of him that was the issue, as the Oilers took back-to-back-to-back penalties that saw a 3-1 lead turn into a 4-3 deficit. Eventually, the Oilers lost 6-3.

Just like after Game 3 of the Golden Knights series, Skinner bounced back after a loss, saving all 25 shots he faced in a 3-0 victory. That continued in Game 4, which the Oilers won 6-1. However, that doesn’t tell the whole story as the Stars poured on the pressure in the second period, with Skinner saving all but one of the 22 shots the Stars threw his way. In the end, Skinner saved 33 of 34 shots.

Skinner allowed another goal in Game 4, but that turned out to be another win for the Oilers, thanks to their power play and two empty-net goals. Once again, it was a terrific game for Skinner, saving 28 of 29 shots.

Despite starting the postseason with an .810 save percentage after two games, Skinner has raised his save percentage to .910. That’s thanks to a .941 save percentage since returning to the crease in Game 3 of the second round, which included two games with four or more goals.

Since that last-second goal, the same one that led to me saying he shouldn’t be in the Oilers crease again this postseason, Skinner has an incredible .957 save percentage in five games, which includes a game where he allowed five goals.

Similarly to his numbers since returning, Skinner has a .939 save percentage in the series against the Stars. When you add his totals from last year against the Stars, Skinner has a .929 save percentage against the Stars in the postseason.

One reason why the Oilers likely didn’t want to make a trade for a netminder before the trade deadline is due to Skinner’s ceiling. When he plays as he’s playing this postseason, he could be a top netminder in the league. It’s all about finding consistency. Let’s hope he can continue his strong performance.