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Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports

Success Rates of NHL Draft Picks

Originally posted on The Hockey Writers
By Jacob Billington | Last updated Jun 28, 2024 2:49 PM ET

Throughout the history of the NHL draft, there have been generational players, late-round steals, high-pedigree busts, and even made-up players in the case of Taro Tsujimoto. When draft time rolls around, people want to know everything about the prospects, the one their team picks, and how likely it is for them to make the NHL.

Every player is different, but collecting data from the 1963 NHL Amateur Draft through the 2023 NHL Entry Draft, here is how each first-round pick stands up in terms of career games and points, followed by a round-by-round breakdown. Hockey Reference, Quant Hockey, the NHL, and other sources were used.

As the draft and league have evolved, more selections are being made. Some picks like 31 and 32 are brand new entries in the first round and used to be second-round picks. In this case, the stats are based on the round the player was originally selected in and not adjusted to modern rounds.

Top 32 Picks

1st Overall:

Most Notable: Mario Lemieux (PIT), Sidney Crosby (PIT), Alexander Ovechkin (WSH), Connor McDavid (EDM)

2nd Overall:

Most Notable: Marcel Dionne (DET), Brendan Shanahan (NJD), Evgeni Malkin (PIT), Patrick Marleau (SJS), Eric Staal (CAR)

3rd Overall:

Most Notable: Denis Savard (CHI), Henrik Sedin (VAN), Pat Lafontaine (NYI), Jonathan Toews (CHI), Leon Draisaitl (EDM)

4th Overall:

Most Notable: Ron Francis (HFD), Steve Yzerman (DET), Mike Gartner (WSH)

5th Overall:

Most Notable: Jaromir Jagr (PIT), Phil Kessel (BOS), Blake Wheeler (PHX), Scott Stevens (WSH)

6th Overall:

Most Notable: Paul Coffey (EDM), Phil Housley (BUF), Vincent Damphousse (TOR)

7th Overall:

Most Notable: Bernie Federko (STL), Shane Doan (PHX), Jason Arnott (EDM)

8th Overall:

Most Notable: Ray Bourque (BOS), Jeremy Roenick (CHI), Darryl Sittler (TOR)

9th Overall:

Most Notable: Rod Brind’Amour (STL), Brian Leetch (NYR), Cam Neely (VAN)

10th Overall:

Most Notable: Teemu Selanne (WPG), Bobby Holik (HFD), Mikko Rantanen (COL)

11th Overall:

Most Notable: Jarome Iginla (DAL), Anze Kopitar (LAK), Jeff Carter (PHI)

12th Overall:

Most Notable: Marian Hossa (OTT), Gary Roberts (CGY), Alex Tanguay (COL)

13th Overall:

Most Notable: Craig Janney (BOS), Dustin Brown (LAK), Ron Hainsey (MTL)

14th Overall:

Most Notable: Sergei Gonchar (WSH), Brent Seabrook (CHI), Brian Propp (PHI)

15th Overall:

Most Notable: Joe Sakic (QBC), Al McInnis (CGY), Mike Bossy (NYI)

16th Overall:

Most Notable: Dave Andreychuk (BUF), Marcus Naslund (PIT)

17th Overall:

Most Notable: Bobby Clarke (PHI), Zach Parise (NJD)

18th Overall:

Most Notable: Ken Daneyko (NJD), Petr Sykora (NJD), Glen Murray (BOS)

19th Overall:

Most Notable: Keith Tkachuk (WPG), Ryan Getzlaf (ANA)

20th Overall:

Most Notable: Michel Goulet (QBC), Larry Robinson (MTL), Brent Burns (MIN)

21st Overall:

Most Notable: Saku Koivu (MTL), Brian Smolinski (BOS)

22nd Overall:

Most Notable: Bryan Trottier (NYI), Claude Giroux (PHI), Adam Foote (QBC)

23rd Overall:

Most Notable: Ray Whitney (SJS), Todd Bertuzzi (NYI)

24th Overall:

Most Notable: Daniel Briere (PHX), TJ Oshie (STL),

25th Overall:

Most Notable: Mark Howe (BOS), David Pastrnak (BOS)

26th Overall:

Most Notable: Claude Lemieux (MTL), David Perron (STL)

27th Overall:

Most Notable: Joe Nieuwendyk (CGY), Scott Mellanby (PHI)

28th Overall:

Most Notable: Corey Perry (ANA), Justin Williams (PHI)

29th Overall:

Most Notable: Teppo Numminen (WPG), Stephane Richer (MTL)

30th Overall:

Most Notable: Randy Carlyle (TOR), Patrice Brisbois (MTL)

31st Overall:

Most Notable: Tiger Williams (TOR), Felix Potvin (TOR)

32nd Overall:

Most Notable: Tony McKegney (BUF), Derek Roy (BUF)

First Round

Most Notable: Mario Lemieux (PIT), Connor McDavid (EDM), Sidney Crosby (PIT)

Second Round

Most Notable: Patrice Bergeron (BOS), Brian Trottier (NYI), Joe Nieuwendyk (CGY)

Third Round

Most Notable: Mark Messier (EDM), Niklas Lidstrom (DET), Zdeno Chara (NYI)

Fourth Round

Most Notable: Mark Recchi (PIT), Jari Kurri (EDM), Bernie Nicholls (LAK)

Fifth Round

Most Notable: Alexander Mogilny (BUF), Jamie Benn (DAL)

Sixth Round

Most Notable: Brett Hull (CGY), Daniel Alfredsson (OTT)

Seventh Round

Most Notable: Doug Gilmour (STL), Joe Pavelski (SJS)

Plenty of research, scouting, and luck goes into every pick in the draft. There is no such thing as a guarantee, even at first overall. Sometimes players don’t live up to their expectations, sometimes you throw a dart at the board and end up with a franchise-altering superstar in the seventh round. Anything can happen at the NHL Draft.