Tampa Bay Lightning Trade Deadline: Warren Foegele

The Tampa Bay Lightning trade deadline will again be a treat for fans in 2024. Over the last several seasons, Julien BriseBois has shown he is willing to bolster the roster mid-season. It started with Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow for the 2020 and 2021 Stanley Cup Playoff runs. In recent years, Tanner Jeannot and Michael Eyssimont have joined the squad. With their current position, there is a question of what the Lightning should do: buy or sell? Here at Last Word, Kyle Pereira and Jack Pallotta will start a series where they look at some potential trades. Let’s say they buy, who do they get? What do they give up? Today, we look at Warren Foegele of the Edmonton Oilers.

Tampa Bay Lightning Trade Deadline: Warren Foegele

A third-round draft pick of the Carolina Hurricanes in 2014, Warren Foegele has played the best hockey of his career with the Oilers this season. The 27-year-old winger has split 394 career games between Carolina and Edmonton. While Foegele has appeared in only one complete NHL season, he provides solid secondary scoring. Foegele has ten goals and 16 assists for 26 points in 45 games this year. Furthermore, he is on pace to finish just under 50 points, which would shatter a career-high of 30 points back in 2019-20.

Furthermore, Foegele earned the trust of his Head Coach, Kris Knoblauch. His 15.54 offensive zone start percentage (15.54 OZS%) ranks fifth amongst Edmonton forwards at 5v5, and his 11.72 defensive zone start percentage (11.72 DZS%) also ranks fifth. Foegele is deployed as a second-line player for the Oilers this season, with just over 12 minutes of 5v5 ice time per game. Now, why would the Lightning be interested in someone like Foegele?

Foegele Scouting Report

In previous Lightning deadline pieces, Last Word looked at Thomas Novak and Kailer Yamamoto. We identified Novak and Yamamoto as players who play more of a possession-based game with an edge in transition. Foegele fits this player archetype once again. He has been heavily influential on the rush for the Oilers this season. Plus, he has fantastic possession numbers in the Edmonton system.

On the offensive side of the puck, Foegele can score in all different types of ways. He can score off the rush, the cycle, and rebounds. Foegele is good at driving the net off the rush to create traffic and chaos. He streaks down the middle lane to either pull defenders with him to open up the high-option or will have his stick on the ice for a re-direction. He plays a heavy game and can throw his weight around on the forecheck. Jon Cooper could slot Foegele on the second-line right wing alongside Anthony Cirelli and Brandon Hagel. Not only would Cirelli and Hgel get more looks directly off the rush, but the passing chemistry would improve immensely.

Foegele’s Strengths

Foegele’s best qualities are his rush offence and disruption on the forecheck. He plays physically and can force turnovers as the first man on the puck. He is not the most responsible defensive player. Yet, he makes up for it with his offensive abilities. Moreover, Cirelli and Hagel will be able to cover defensively for Foegele. However, he is flexible and can slot anywhere in the lineup. Foegele is the scoring punch the Lightning need at even strength. Since December 1st, Foegle ranks tied at 16th in 5v5 points amongst forwards.

Additionally, his microstats profile backs up his strengths as a player. Foegele ranks in the 58th percentile of controlled zone entries per hour (All Three Zones). He also ranks in the 71st percentile of forecheck pressures per hour. The most surprising statistic of his profile is his high-danger passing. Foegele places in the 83rd percentile of high-danger passes per 60. His passing statistics have skyrocketed compared to years past.

The Concerns for Foegele

The biggest concern for Foegele is regression to the mean. His value is at an all-time high this season. As we stated, he is on pace for almost 50 points, 20 more than a previous career-best. While his rush, forecheck, and passing abilities are high-end, this may reflect improved linemates and Knoblauch’s system. The Lightning may have to pay a hefty price tag to acquire Foegele, and there is a high probability he regresses to a 30-point pace. With that being said, under a coach like Cooper and with the proper deployment, Foegele may be a fit for the Bolts based on price.

What It Would (Likely) Take to Acquire Foegele

Looking at last year’s deadline, there are three comparable deadline deals. Nino Niederreiter (0.5 points per game) got traded to the Winnipeg Jets for a 2024 2nd-round pick. Ivan Barbashev (0.49 points per game) joined the Golden Knights in exchange for prospect Zach Dean. In 2022, Artturi Lehkonen (0.5 points per game) got traded to the Colorado Avalanche for a 2024 2nd-round pick and Justin Barron at 50% retained.

Foegele this season has averaged 0.57 points per game, which ranks first amongst the listed players above. While physicality and hits are not the end-all-be-all, General Managers around the league value hits in the playoffs. Niederreiter is the same size as Foegele, 6’2″ and over 200 pounds, and ranked 51st amongst forwards in hits before the trade. Barbashev is also a physical presence. He ranked 31st amongst forwards in hits before the trade. Lehkonen is not very physical, but his ability to play on any forward line and production-wise is similar to Foegele. All three of these players have something in common with Foegele. They can be effective top-six forwards in the proper role. However, what does this mean for a Foegele trade?

Lightning acquire: Warren Foegele (F)

Oilers acquire: Alex Barre-Boulet (F), 2025 2nd-round pick, 2026 4th-round pick

Tampa Bay Lightning Trade Deadline: In or Out on Foegele

The Lightning need to stabilize the middle-six forward group to make noise in the playoffs. The top line has been fantastic and consistent all season long. They are carrying the offensive charge. On the other hand, the rest of the forwards are inconsistent in their production. Foegele is a player who can help the middle-six and fit like a glove under Cooper. Furthermore, his passing and upside on the rush offer unlimited line combination possibilities. 

Yet, Foegele is expecting a new paycheck this upcoming summer, so there is a solid chance he is experiencing a career year in his contract season. One can argue Jeannot can bring the intensity to the forecheck when he returns to the lineup. However, if the Lightning can grab Foegele at a reasonable price like the one listed above, it may be worth a shot. Unfortunately, the trade deadline inflates the trade value of the available players, and General Managers must gamble their assets to find the next gem for their franchises’ playoff run. 

Advanced percentiles via AllThreeZones (paid subscription required)

Raw stats via NaturalStatTrick & EvolvingHockey