Tampa Bay Lightning Trade Deadline: Yakov Trenin

The 2024 NHL trade deadline again offers the Tampa Bay Lightning some exciting possibilities. Over the last several seasons, Julien BriseBois has shown he is willing to bolster the roster mid-season. It started with Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow for the 2020 and 2021 Stanley Cup Playoff runs. In recent years, Tanner Jeannot and Michael Eyssimont have joined the squad. With their current position, there is a question of what the Lightning should do: buy or sell? At Last Word, Kyle Pereira and Jack Pallotta will start a series looking at potential trades. Let’s say they buy, who do they get? What do they give up? Today, we look at Yakov Trenin of the Nashville Predators.

Tampa Bay Lightning Trade Deadline: Yakov Trenin

A second-round draft pick of the Predators in 2015, Trenin became a full-time member of the organization to start the 2020-21 season. He scored five goals and six assists for 11 points in 48 games in his rookie year. The following season, Trenin saw a massive boost in his production, especially his goal-scoring. Trenin notched 17 goals and seven assists for 24 points in 80 games his sophomore season. Furthermore, Trenin matched his career-high 24 points in three fewer games during the 2022-23 season. This season, Trenin has eight goals and 11 points in 48 games. He is on pace for a slight decline in production, with a projected 18 points total.

The 27-year-old bruiser can play at centre or on the wing. He ranks tied second on Nashville with seven goals at 5v5. Trenin has spent time on a line with Colton Sissons and Cole Smith this season. His linemates do not complement his game, and Trenin has regressed in Andrew Brunette‘s system. Additionally, the Trenin, Sissons, and Smith trio controls roughly 40% of the on-ice expected goals share (40.2 xGF%). That percentage ranks 120th out of 128 active line combinations with over 100 minutes played this season. We believe Trenin has a higher potential to fulfill. Now, why would the Lightning be interested in someone like Trenin?

Trenin Scouting Report

Last Word looked at Thomas Novak, Anthony Duclair, and Reilly Smith in previous Lightning deadline pieces. We identified that all these players prefer a possession-based style and can attack off the rush. However, Trenin does not fit the mold of the players we have covered thus far. He plays an old-school game via the cycle and forecheck. Moreover, Trenin moves well for his size and plays very physically.

The Lightning bottom-six lacks two attributes: speed and goal-scoring. Trenin brings both those attributes to the table. While he is not a flashy player, Trenin never backs down from a puck battle or fight. In addition, he plays a similar style to Pat Maroon, a fan favorite in Tampa Bay over the past few seasons. We see him as a perfect fit for the Tampa Bay bottom-six. The Lightning are one of the best forechecking teams in the league this season, so there is a potential fit with the acquisition of Trenin.

Where Does Trenin Fit?

As mentioned, Trenin plays a heavy game along the boards and crashes the crease. His style of play becomes prominent in the playoffs. This season, Trenin ranks in the 89th percentile of forechecking pressures per 60 (All Three Zones). In addition, he ranks in the 53rd percentile of cycle and forecheck offence per hour. Trenin is also a high-volume shooter. He would work best with solid passers around him.

Trenin can play in the bottom six alongside Tyler Motte and former teammate Jeannot. This line consists of three aggressive players on the forecheck. While fans may be concerned these players will get caught chasing the puck, Motte is a fantastic hockey mind and can cover for Trenin and Jeannot. Furthermore, we believe this line would post solid defensive results for the Lightning and set a physical tone to the game. 

The Concerns for Trenin

The main concern behind this trade target is the future outlook past this season. As history tells us, Julien BriseBois is not interested in pure rentals. He looks for players who can remain in the organization for multiple seasons at the trade deadline. Trenin’s contract comes in at a $1.7 million annual average, and he may test the open market for a pay raise this summer. The Lightning do not have the salary cap flexibility to offer a bottom-six forward over $2 million per season. Furthermore, a physical forward like Jeannot has struggled in Jon Cooper’s system, so will Trenin experience the same issue? 

What It Would (Likely) Take to Acquire Trenin

Looking at previous trade deadlines, there are three comparable deadline deals. Jordan Greenway (0.16 points per game) got traded to the Buffalo Sabres for a 2023 second-round pick and a 2024 5th-round pick. Lars Eller (0.27 points per game) joined the Colorado Avalanche in exchange for a 2025 second-round pick. In 2022, Nicolas Deslauriers (0.16 points per game) got traded to the Minnesota Wild for a 2023 third-round pick. 

Trenin has averaged 0.23 points per game this season. He shares at least one attribute with all three players listed in the trades above. With Greenway, the two are similar in age and size. Eller and Trenin the two share a solid two-way game. With Deslauries, the two share physicality and intensity. The asking price for a player of Trenin’s caliber is roughly a second-round pick. Below is a hypothetical offer to acquire Trenin from the Predators.

Lightning acquire: Yakov Trenin (F)

Predators acquire: 2025 second-round pick

Tampa Bay Lightning Trade Deadline: In or Out on Trenin

Compiling the results from social media polls we held, many Lightning fans are interested in staying the course or acquiring minor assets this trade deadline. Trenin is not the most polished prize of the 2024 NHL Trade Deadline. However, he has the upside to be a difference-maker for the Bolts come playoff time. Tampa Bay and Nashville have a trade history with the departure of Ryan McDonagh over the summer and Jeannot’s trade last deadline.

The Lightning needs contributions from the bottom six offensively. We believe Trenin can help fill the hole. Furthermore, Trenin sparks the depth with grit and speed. Despite the upside Trenin may offer, he is likely just a rental for the Lightning. Tampa Bay does not have the money to pay a solid bottom-six forward entering the prime of his career. With all that said, will they look his way?

Advanced percentiles via AllThreeZones (paid subscription required)

Raw stats via NaturalStatTrick & EvolvingHockey

Line stats via MoneyPuck